Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
107 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this
  afternoon and evening, especially in central to eastern
  portions of the state. Main hazards will be hail up to 2
  inches in diameter and wind gusts up to 70 mph, with an
  isolated tornado threat.

- A gradual warming trend is expected through Friday with above
  average highs favored. A cooling trend back to near average
  highs is then favored for the holiday weekend.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible as early as
  Thursday lasting through the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

An impressive upper level trough sat over Montana and Wyoming
early this afternoon with a jet rounding the base into the
northern high plains. A surface low is centered over the central
to eastern Dakotas, which will lift northeast as the upper jet
continues to eject out over the plains through the evening. A
lower level moisture gradient is a highlight of today's setup
with 17Z surface dew points sitting at around 70 degrees in the
warm sector, mainly near and east of a line that cuts north-
south through the state (roughly going through Bismarck and just
east of Minot). West of this line low level moisture is notably
lower with a few non-severe thunderstorms rolling through this
morning.

Scattered convection is expected to redevelop this afternoon under
the influence of the ejecting upper jet/trough. This incoming jet
aloft will provide strong shear in the 50-60kt range with the wwarm
sector's rich moisture bringing a conditional opportinity for
adequate instability for severe weather. Early morning convection
made the instability potential somewhat uncertain, though satellite
trends at 17Z show pockets of clearing which should allow for an
increasing trend in surface based instability. Supercells with the
threat of very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the
primary threat, at least initially until some clustering and upscale
growth likely occurs. A tornado threat will also accompany
thunderstorms, especially towards the eastern portions of the state.
The intensity of the overall wind shear cannot be understated and
will allow for any storm that can tap into richer low level moisture
to produce hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter or wind gusts
exceeding 70 mph. As mentioned before the coverage may partially
depend on how well earlier stratus can clear, with lingering clouds
preventing full destabilization.

Several rounds of severe convection will be possible as the upper
level trough swings through late this evening. The thunderstorm
threat will likely linger longest across the far north before
exiting around or just after midnight.

On Tuesday the upper low will be well over the southern Canadian
plains with drier westerly flow across North Dakota. Windy west
winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will be common with highs
from the mid 70s northwest to mid 80s far southeast.

Flow on Wednesday remains westerly, though less windy than Tuesday.
There is rising confidence among deterministic and machine learning
guidance in convection and severe weather potential returning as
early as Thursday, though where the strongest storms set up in the
state is still dependant on uncertain moisture return.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today through
the evening, with severe thunderstorms possible across central
and eastern North Dakota. Thunderstorm threat should taper off
from south to north through the evening. IFR stratus should
gradually lift somewhat at KJMS through the afternoon but this
may be a slow process. Otherwise, IFR ceilings/visibility and
erratic winds possible with any thunderstorm, with severe
weather possible near and east of a KMOT-KBIS line. Surface
winds turn west/southwest through the evening then increase
after 09Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Edwards
AVIATION...Edwards

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
113 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

NDZ003>005-012-013-019-020-022-023-025-033-035>037-041-042-044-
046>048-050-051-056>062-301815-
Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-Mercer-Oliver-Sheridan-
Wells-Foster-Stark-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Hettinger-Grant-Adams-
Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
Central and Southern Ward/Minot Area-Western McLean-
Eastern McLean-Western Morton-Eastern Morton-Western Sioux-
Eastern Sioux-
113 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 /1213 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening. Main hazards will be hail up to 2 inches
in diameter and wind gusts up to 70 mph, along with an isolated
tornado threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard
procedures, including through our social media accounts.

NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031-032-040-043-055-301815-
Divide-Burke-Williams-Mountrail-McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-
Billings-Slope-Bowman-Northwest Ward-
113 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 /1213 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard
procedures, including through our social media accounts.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
458 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     8 SSW Sawyer            47.98N 101.09W
06/29/2026  M59 MPH          Ward               ND   Mesonet

            59 MPH winds at 10M measured at Sawyer 7S
            NDAWN.

&&

CSD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
500 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 W Garrison            47.65N 101.43W
06/29/2026  M62 MPH          McLean             ND   ASOS

            ASOS station KN60 Garrison.

&&

MEJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
500 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

NDZ044-292230-
Adams ND-
400 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTY UNTIL 430
PM MDT...

At 400 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hettinger, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Hettinger.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4595 10282 4628 10268 4628 10250 4621 10250
      4621 10232 4619 10229 4595 10252
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 208DEG 19KT 4604 10262

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CJS