Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
107 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this
  afternoon and evening, especially in central to eastern
  portions of the state. Main hazards will be hail up to 2
  inches in diameter and wind gusts up to 70 mph, with an
  isolated tornado threat.

- A gradual warming trend is expected through Friday with above
  average highs favored. A cooling trend back to near average
  highs is then favored for the holiday weekend.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible as early as
  Thursday lasting through the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

An impressive upper level trough sat over Montana and Wyoming
early this afternoon with a jet rounding the base into the
northern high plains. A surface low is centered over the central
to eastern Dakotas, which will lift northeast as the upper jet
continues to eject out over the plains through the evening. A
lower level moisture gradient is a highlight of today's setup
with 17Z surface dew points sitting at around 70 degrees in the
warm sector, mainly near and east of a line that cuts north-
south through the state (roughly going through Bismarck and just
east of Minot). West of this line low level moisture is notably
lower with a few non-severe thunderstorms rolling through this
morning.

Scattered convection is expected to redevelop this afternoon under
the influence of the ejecting upper jet/trough. This incoming jet
aloft will provide strong shear in the 50-60kt range with the wwarm
sector's rich moisture bringing a conditional opportinity for
adequate instability for severe weather. Early morning convection
made the instability potential somewhat uncertain, though satellite
trends at 17Z show pockets of clearing which should allow for an
increasing trend in surface based instability. Supercells with the
threat of very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the
primary threat, at least initially until some clustering and upscale
growth likely occurs. A tornado threat will also accompany
thunderstorms, especially towards the eastern portions of the state.
The intensity of the overall wind shear cannot be understated and
will allow for any storm that can tap into richer low level moisture
to produce hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter or wind gusts
exceeding 70 mph. As mentioned before the coverage may partially
depend on how well earlier stratus can clear, with lingering clouds
preventing full destabilization.

Several rounds of severe convection will be possible as the upper
level trough swings through late this evening. The thunderstorm
threat will likely linger longest across the far north before
exiting around or just after midnight.

On Tuesday the upper low will be well over the southern Canadian
plains with drier westerly flow across North Dakota. Windy west
winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will be common with highs
from the mid 70s northwest to mid 80s far southeast.

Flow on Wednesday remains westerly, though less windy than Tuesday.
There is rising confidence among deterministic and machine learning
guidance in convection and severe weather potential returning as
early as Thursday, though where the strongest storms set up in the
state is still dependant on uncertain moisture return.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today through
the evening, with severe thunderstorms possible across central
and eastern North Dakota. Thunderstorm threat should taper off
from south to north through the evening. IFR stratus should
gradually lift somewhat at KJMS through the afternoon but this
may be a slow process. Otherwise, IFR ceilings/visibility and
erratic winds possible with any thunderstorm, with severe
weather possible near and east of a KMOT-KBIS line. Surface
winds turn west/southwest through the evening then increase
after 09Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Edwards
AVIATION...Edwards

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
113 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

NDZ003>005-012-013-019-020-022-023-025-033-035>037-041-042-044-
046>048-050-051-056>062-301815-
Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-Mercer-Oliver-Sheridan-
Wells-Foster-Stark-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Hettinger-Grant-Adams-
Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
Central and Southern Ward/Minot Area-Western McLean-
Eastern McLean-Western Morton-Eastern Morton-Western Sioux-
Eastern Sioux-
113 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 /1213 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening. Main hazards will be hail up to 2 inches
in diameter and wind gusts up to 70 mph, along with an isolated
tornado threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard
procedures, including through our social media accounts.

NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031-032-040-043-055-301815-
Divide-Burke-Williams-Mountrail-McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-
Billings-Slope-Bowman-Northwest Ward-
113 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 /1213 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard
procedures, including through our social media accounts.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1217 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 NNW Trenton           48.14N 103.87W
06/27/2026                   Williams           ND   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency manager reports a nearly mile wide
            neighborhood west of Williston with
            significant storm damage. Notes debris in a
            southwest to northeast orientation. Notable
            damage includes two home with roofs uplifted
            and partially blown off. One roof blown 100
            yards away. Other damage includes sheds,
            enclosed trailers, and campers damaged or
            destroyed. Some tree damage also noted.
            Winds estimated at 97 mph based indicated
            damage. Time estimated based on radar.

&&

JAA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1224 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     Hail             6 SSW Orrin             48.02N 100.24W
06/29/2026  E2.00 Inch       McHenry            ND   Trained Spotter

            Time estimated by radar.

&&

JAA