Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Bismarck, ND

084 
WWUS83 KBIS 120309
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1009 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING ON TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA 
INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...

.The Red Flag Warning for this evening has been allowed to expire
as humidity values begin increasing with sunset. However, a Red
Flag Warning remains in effect on Tuesday for much of central
North Dakota and the James River Valley. Critical fire weather 
conditions are expected Tuesday in central North Dakota and the 
James River Valley due to northwest winds of 20 to 35 mph with 
gusts to 45 mph, and relative humidity values as low as 20 
percent. Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
difficult to control.

NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-121515-
/O.EXP.KBIS.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260512T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0008.260512T1600Z-260513T0200Z/
Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-McLean-Sheridan-
Wells-Foster-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-
McIntosh-Dickey-
1009 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CDT
TUESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...

* WINDS...On Tuesday winds will be northwest 20 to 35 mph with 
  gusts to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent on Tuesday.

* AFFECTED AREA...Central North Dakota, including the James 
  River Valley.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are expected. A combination of strong winds, low relative 
humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire 
behavior.

&&

$$

NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-031>034-040>045-120415-
/O.EXP.KBIS.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260512T0300Z/
Divide-Burke-Williams-Mountrail-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-
Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-
Adams-Sioux-
1009 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026 /909 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026/

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

Humidity values will gradually increase overnight, and winds will
decrease in most areas. 

$$

CJS

962 
WWUS83 KBIS 120757
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
257 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA 
INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...

.A Red Flag Warning remains in effect today for much of central 
North Dakota, including the James River Valley. Critical fire 
weather conditions are expected today in central North Dakota and
the James River Valley due to northwest winds of 20 to 35 mph 
with gusts to 45 mph, and relative humidity values as low as 20 
percent. Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
difficult to control.

NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-130200-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0008.260512T1600Z-260513T0200Z/
Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-McLean-Sheridan-
Wells-Foster-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-
McIntosh-Dickey-
257 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...

* WINDS...Northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Central North Dakota, including the James 
  River Valley.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are expected. A combination of strong winds, low relative
humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire
behavior.

&&

$$

Telken

199 
WWUS83 KBIS 121455
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
955 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...

.A Red Flag Warning remains in effect today for much of central
North Dakota, including the James River Valley. Critical fire
weather conditions are expected today in central North Dakota and
the James River Valley due to northwest winds of 20 to 35 mph
with gusts to 45 mph, and relative humidity values as low as
20 percent. Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become
difficult to control.

NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-130200-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0008.260512T1600Z-260513T0200Z/
Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-McLean-Sheridan-
Wells-Foster-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-
McIntosh-Dickey-
955 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...

* WINDS...Northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Central North Dakota, including the James 
  River Valley.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are expected. A combination of strong winds, low relative
humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire
behavior.

&&

$$

811 
WWUS83 KBIS 121828
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
128 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. RED FLAG WARNING TOMORROW FOR
WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

.A Red Flag Warning remains in effect today for much of central
North Dakota, including the James River Valley. Critical fire
weather conditions are expected today in central North Dakota and
the James River Valley due to northwest winds of 20 to 35 mph
with gusts to 45 mph, and relative humidity values as low as
20 percent. A new Red Flag Warning has been issued for Wednesday 
for western and portions of south central North Dakota. Critical 
fire weather conditions will return Wednesday due to southeasterly
winds around 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Minimum 
relative humidity is forecast to drop down as low as 15 percent. 
Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become difficult to 
control.

NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040>045-130630-
/O.NEW.KBIS.FW.W.0009.260513T1600Z-260514T0300Z/
Divide-Burke-Williams-Mountrail-McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-
Billings-Stark-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-
128 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026 /1228 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026/

...RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MDT / 11 AM CDT 
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO 9 PM MDT / 10PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR 
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH 
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

The National Weather Service in Bismarck has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Wednesday.

* WINDS...Southeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Western and portions of south central North 
  Dakota.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-130200-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-260513T0200Z/
Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-McLean-Sheridan-
Wells-Foster-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-
McIntosh-Dickey-
128 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 21 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Central North Dakota, including the James 
  River Valley.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are expected. A combination of strong winds, low relative
humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire
behavior.

&&

$$

034 
WWUS83 KBIS 130152
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
852 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING WEDNESDAY FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH 
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

.A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Wednesday for western and
portions of south central North Dakota. Critical fire weather 
conditions will return Wednesday due to southeasterly winds of 20
to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Minimum relative humidity is 
forecast to drop down as low as 15 percent. Any fires that ignite 
will spread rapidly and become difficult to control.

NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-130300-
/O.EXP.KBIS.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-260513T0200Z/
Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-McLean-Sheridan-
Wells-Foster-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-
McIntosh-Dickey-
852 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR 
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...

Winds are decreasing and relative humidity values are increasing. 

$$

NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040>045-131400-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0009.260513T1600Z-260514T0300Z/
Divide-Burke-Williams-Mountrail-McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-
Billings-Stark-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-
852 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026 /752 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/
TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

* WINDS...Southeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Western and portions of south central North 
  Dakota.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are expected. A combination of strong winds, low relative 
humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire 
behavior.

&&

$$

CJS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
101 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions today across western through
  most of central ND, including the James River Valley.

- Strong winds expected across central North Dakota Tuesday
  morning through the afternoon.

- Windy conditions and low humidity values through the rest of
  the upcoming week may lead to daily critical fire weather
  conditions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

A cold front has started to move into western North Dakota at
the time of this mid day update. Behind this front, strong winds
from 25 to 30 MPH gusting up to 45 MPH have begun to veer
northwesterly. This transition to northwesterly winds will
spread across the forecast area as the cold front makes it way
to the east through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, weak
radar returns continue to skim along the International Border.
With very dry conditions underneath elevated clouds bases, no
precpitation has been observed reaching the ground so far. Have
opted to restricts PoPs to mainly the northwest and north
central North Dakota into the northern James River Valley,
mainly where some isolated convection is possible later this
afternoon and evening. Otherwise, with this update, have opted
to issue a Wind Advisory across portions of central North Dakota
for Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon. See
weather.gov/bis for details.

UPDATE
Issued at 945 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

A warm front is moving into western North Dakota at the time of
this mid morning update, promote weak radar returns across
portions of the northwest. With very dry conditions underneath
the 10kft cloud bases, it is unlikely that much if any
precpitation associated with these returns are reach the ground.
Have opted to leave very low chances for precpitation (less
than 10 percent) in the forecast at this time. As we head into
the afternoon, cooling and saturated conditions aloft will
promote at least low chance (10 to 30 percent) for rain showers
across portions of the northwest and north central through the
early evening. Otherwise, at this time, winds continue to
organize out of the south southeast with speeds from 15 to 20
MPH and gusts up to 30 MPH already found across the west. Wind
are expected to continue strengthening through the late morning
and afternoon, veering to the northwest as a cold front drops
from northwest to southeast through the evening. Overall, no
major adjustments to the forecast were performed with this
update as it remains in good shape.

UPDATE
Issued at 636 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

The forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 502 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

The forecast challenge for the week remains mostly dry and
frequently windy conditions. The overall biggest impacts will be
in regard to fire weather. Those are primarily discussed in the
Fire Weather section below.

Currently, surface high pressure sits over Minnesota and the
western Great Lakes Region, while a surface low is along the
southern Alberta/Saskatchewan border. This low will gradually
slide across the International border through the day today. A
tightening pressure gradient will help produce gusty southerly
winds, especially east of Highway 83 this morning. These winds
are currently forecast from 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45
mph. As the low slides eastward, associated cold frontal
boundary will cause winds to switch to a northwesterly
component from west to east across the state this afternoon and
evening. There remains the potential for isolated showers and
thunderstorms late this afternoon and early evening, especially
for northern North Dakota. With inverted V type soundings, any
showers and thunderstorms could produce further enhanced and
erratic wind gusts.

With the exception of the far northwest, the strongest pressure
rises and CAA remain favored for after sunset. In the far
northwest, this could result in very windy conditions this
afternoon similar to those east of Highway 83 in the morning and
early afternoon. However, this unfavorable timing may help limit
peak winds overall. Still, there remains the possibility that
winds are somewhat underforecast for at least a few hours
overnight.

For Tuesday, a strong LLJ is progged to remain in place during
the morning over the eastern half of the state before gradually
moving off further to the east. In addition, surface high
pressure will begin to nudge its way in resulting in a loosening
pressure gradient. Nevertheless, with sunny skies, it should be
a good mixing day. Therefore, do expect there will be windy
conditions yet again, especially in the eastern half of the
state. Still, it remains possible that the NBM 5.0 could be a
little overdone, especially in regard to sustained winds. Either
way, winds should rapidly become light and variable with the
loss of diurnal heating in the evening.

The next surface low will then approach from the lee of the
northern Rockies starting Wednesday, and pass across southern
Canada or North Dakota to finish out the workweek. This will
produce another round of windy conditions, mostly in the west on
Wednesday, then statewide Thursday and possibly Friday
depending on the speed and track of this low. Low precipitation
chances begin to return towards the end of the workweek with 20
to 40 percent shower and possibly thunderstorm chances statewide
Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

Lows should remain above freezing (40s and sometimes 50s)
through the remainder of the week. Highs today are expected to
range from the upper 60s in northeastern North Dakota to the mid
80s west. Following the aforementioned cold frontal boundary,
highs Tuesday will be from the mid 60s to mid 70s. A warming
trend is then progged Wednesday and Thursday with highs
Thursday mostly in the 80s. A slight cooling trend is then
favored this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility are broadly expected at all terminals
throughout the 18Z TAF period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are possible across portions of northwest and north central North
Dakota this afternoon and evening, though confidence for impacts at
any given terminal remains low. Where thunderstorms do develop,
gusty and erratic winds should be anticipated. Gusty south winds
will continue to strengthen through the afternoon, from 25 to 30
knots gusting up to 45 knots. Winds will veer to the west then the
northwest through the afternoon and evening as a cold front moves
across the region. A brief lull in the strongest winds is possible
ahead of this front. Northwest winds will remain breezy overnight
through Tuesday morning, before again strengthening through the end
of the TAF period. The development of the LLJ may induce wind shear
at time across portions of central North Dakota tonight through
Tuesday morning. Have included LLWS at KJMS with this update, with
confidence too low at KMOT and KBIS to include mentions at this
time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 502 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Surface low moving from west to east across south central Canada
will tighten the pressure gradient and produce increasingly
strong southerly winds this morning. These winds will be
strongest for locations east of Highway 83 that are also along
and south of Highway 2. In addition to strong southerly winds,
marginally higher dewpoints in the 30s to low 40s will advect
into much of the state this morning and early afternoon. An
associated cold frontal boundary will then pass from west to
east across the state this afternoon and evening, which will
quickly lessen dewpoints yet again. When all is said and done,
there will be a sharp gradient in minimum relative humidity
this afternoon with much drier conditions west versus east. In
addition to relatively brief increased dewpoints, there will
likely be somewhat of a lull in winds ahead of the frontal
boundary, followed by a strengthening behind it. This will
produce gusty northwesterly winds across western North Dakota in
the afternoon, especially in the far northwest. The strongest
winds during both time periods and geographical locations will
be from around 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

Strong winds combined with these low humidity values will
result in critical fire weather conditions today for most of
western through central North Dakota, including the James River
Valley. Of note, one additional concern for this afternoon and
early evening is the potential for isolated showers and a few
thunderstorms. While any precipitation is not expected to be
widespread, inverted V soundings suggest enhanced erratic winds
are possible with any shower or thunderstorm activity that does
occur.

Winds will become light across most of the western half of the
state tonight, though remain breezy to windy in the eastern
half. That said, higher pressure rises and strong CAA could
maintain a bit stronger winds than currently forecast. At least
for a few more hours. Another windy day is then expected
Tuesday with strong northwesterly winds, especially east of
Highway 83 where winds may once again range from around 25 to 35
mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Locations further west should
remain moderately lighter, albeit still breezy at around 15 to
20 mph. The one thing that does lower confidence in winds
reaching their maximum potential on Tuesday is a loosening
pressure gradient, and a strong LLJ that may move off to the
east by the afternoon. Still, a good mixing day favors windy
conditions that when combined with continued dry conditions,
will likely be enough to result in critical fire weather
conditions once again for much of central North Dakota, and
possibly western North Dakota as well.

Beyond Tuesday, low minimum relative humidity values will occur
daily through the remainder of the workweek. Meanwhile, breezy
to windy conditions are expected again Wednesday afternoon,
especially in the west, while windy conditions are favored
across most of the state Thursday. Things become more uncertain
towards the weekend, though precipitation chances do increase
with widespread 20 to 40 percent chances currently in the
forecast Saturday night through Sunday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for NDZ005-012-013-
022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

UPDATE...Adam/Telken
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Adam/Telken
FIRE WEATHER...Telken

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
103 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

NDZ001>004-009-010-017>020-031>033-040>044-055>062-121815-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Williams-Mountrail-McKenzie-Dunn-
Mercer-Oliver-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-
Bowman-Adams-Northwest Ward-Central and Southern Ward/Minot Area-
Western McLean-Eastern McLean-Western Morton-Eastern Morton-
Western Sioux-Eastern Sioux-
103 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026 /1203 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Red Flag Warning is in effect today. See weather.gov/bis for
details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Several days of critical fire weather conditions are possible
this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard
procedures, including through our social media accounts.

NDZ005-012-013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-121815-
Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
103 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Red Flag Warning is in effect today. See weather.gov/bis for
details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A Wind Advisory is in effect for early Tuesday morning through
Tuesday afternoon. See weather.gov/bis for details.

Several days of critical fire weather conditions are possible
this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard
procedures, including through our social media accounts.