Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Bismarck, ND

Adams County, ND, Billings County, ND, Bottineau County, ND, Bowman County, ND, Burke County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Divide County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Foster County, ND, Golden Valley County, ND, Grant County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, Kidder County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, McLean County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Morton County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Renville County, ND, Rolette County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Sioux County, ND, Slope County, ND, Stark County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Ward County, ND, Wells County, ND, Williams County, ND

905 
WWUS83 KBIS 111051
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
551 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA, INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...

.Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across
western and most of central North Dakota, including the James
River Valley. Southerly winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to
45 mph will shift to the northwest in the afternoon and evening,
initially in western and then central North Dakota. Relative
humidity values will drop to as low as 15 percent. There is a low
chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon
and early evening over parts of western and central North Dakota,
which could cause stronger erratic wind gusts. Any fires that
ignite will spread rapidly and become difficult to control. 
Critical fire weather conditions are likely again Tuesday, 
especially across central North Dakota.

NDZ001>004-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-120300-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0007.260511T1600Z-260512T0300Z/
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-
Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-
Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-
Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-
McIntosh-Dickey-
551 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026 /451 AM MDT Mon May 11 2026/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/
THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA, INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...

* WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Western and most of central North Dakota,
  including the James River Valley.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Telken

776 
WWUS83 KBIS 111442
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
942 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA, INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...

.Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across
western and most of central North Dakota, including the James
River Valley. Southerly winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to
45 mph will shift to the northwest in the afternoon and evening,
initially in western and then central North Dakota. Relative
humidity values will drop to as low as 15 percent. There is a low
chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon
and early evening over parts of western and central North Dakota,
which could cause stronger erratic wind gusts. Any fires that
ignite will spread rapidly and become difficult to control.
Critical fire weather conditions are likely again Tuesday,
especially across central North Dakota.

NDZ001>004-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-120300-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0007.260511T1600Z-260512T0300Z/
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-
Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-
Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-
Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-
McIntosh-Dickey-
942 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026 /842 AM MDT Mon May 11 2026/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR WESTERN AND
MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...

* WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph in the
  late morning and early afternoon, turning northwesterly through 
  the afternoon and evening as a cold front moves across the 
  region.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Western and most of central North Dakota, 
  including the James River Valley.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

ADAM

929 
WWUS83 KBIS 111559
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1059 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA, INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...

.Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across
western and central North Dakota, including the James River 
Valley. Southerly winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
will shift to the northwest in the afternoon and evening, 
initially in western and then central North Dakota. Relative 
humidity values will drop to as low as 15 percent. There is a low 
chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and
early evening over parts of western and central North Dakota, 
which could cause stronger erratic wind gusts. Any fires that 
ignite will spread rapidly and become difficult to control. 
Critical fire weather conditions are likely again Tuesday, 
especially across central North Dakota.

NDZ005-120300-
/O.EXA.KBIS.FW.W.0007.260511T1600Z-260512T0300Z/
Rolette-
1059 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR ROLETTE COUNTY...

The National Weather Service in Bismarck has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
until 10 PM CDT this evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph in the 
  late morning and early afternoon, turning northwesterly 
  through the afternoon and evening as a cold front moves across 
  the region.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...North central North Dakota. 

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

NDZ001>004-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-120300-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0007.260511T1600Z-260512T0300Z/
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-
Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-
Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-
Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-
McIntosh-Dickey-
1059 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026 /959 AM MDT Mon May 11 2026/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR WESTERN AND
MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...

* WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph in the 
  late morning and early afternoon, turning northwesterly 
  through the afternoon and evening as a cold front moves across 
  the region.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Western and most of central North Dakota, 
  including the James River Valley.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

261 
WWUS83 KBIS 111632
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1132 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, 
INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...

.Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across
western and central North Dakota, including the James River
Valley. Southerly winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph
will shift to the northwest in the afternoon and evening,
initially in western and then central North Dakota. Relative
humidity values will drop to as low as 15 percent. There is a low
chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon
and early evening over parts of western and central North Dakota,
which could cause stronger erratic wind gusts. Any fires that
ignite will spread rapidly and become difficult to control.
Critical fire weather conditions are likely again Tuesday,
especially across central North Dakota.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-120300-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260512T0300Z/
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
1132 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026 /1032 AM MDT Mon May 11 2026/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...

* WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph in the 
  late morning and early afternoon, turning northwesterly 
  through the afternoon and evening as a cold front moves across 
  the region.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Western and central North Dakota, including the
  James River Valley.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

591 
WWUS83 KBIS 111901
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
201 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA,
INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...

.Critical fire weather conditions will continue today through this
evening across western and central North Dakota, including the 
James River Valley. Southerly winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up 
to 45 mph will shift to the northwest in the afternoon and 
evening, initially in western and then central North Dakota. 
Relative humidity values will drop to as low as 15 percent. There 
is a low chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms in the 
afternoon and early evening over parts of western and central 
North Dakota, which could cause stronger erratic wind gusts. Any 
fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become difficult to 
control. 

Critical fire weather conditions are expected again on Tuesday
over central North Dakota including the James River Valley.
Northwest winds will increase to 20 to 35 mph with gusts to 45
mph, while relative humidity values drop as low as 20 percent.
Again, any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become
difficult to control.

NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-120600-
/O.NEW.KBIS.FW.W.0008.260512T1600Z-260513T0200Z/
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260512T0300Z/
Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-McLean-Sheridan-
Wells-Foster-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-
McIntosh-Dickey-
201 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER CENTRAL NORTH 
DAKOTA, INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, WITH A RED FLAG WARNING
AGAIN IN EFFECT AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING....

The National Weather Service in Bismarck has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday. The Red Flag Warning for today
through this evening also remains in effect until 10 PM CDT this
evening.

* WINDS...For today, southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph 
  in the early afternoon, turning northwesterly through the 
  afternoon and evening as a cold front moves across the region. 
  On Tuesday winds will be northwest 20 to 35 mph with gusts to 45
  mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent today, and as low as 20
  percent on Tuesday.

* AFFECTED AREA...Central North Dakota, including the James River
  Valley.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-031>034-040>045-120300-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260512T0300Z/
Divide-Burke-Williams-Mountrail-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-
Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-
Adams-Sioux-
201 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026 /101 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR WESTERN  
NORTH DAKOTA...

* WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph, turning
  northwesterly through the afternoon and evening as a cold front
  moves across the region.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Western North Dakota.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

084 
WWUS83 KBIS 120309
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1009 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING ON TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA 
INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...

.The Red Flag Warning for this evening has been allowed to expire
as humidity values begin increasing with sunset. However, a Red
Flag Warning remains in effect on Tuesday for much of central
North Dakota and the James River Valley. Critical fire weather 
conditions are expected Tuesday in central North Dakota and the 
James River Valley due to northwest winds of 20 to 35 mph with 
gusts to 45 mph, and relative humidity values as low as 20 
percent. Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
difficult to control.

NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-121515-
/O.EXP.KBIS.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260512T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0008.260512T1600Z-260513T0200Z/
Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-McLean-Sheridan-
Wells-Foster-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-
McIntosh-Dickey-
1009 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CDT
TUESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...

* WINDS...On Tuesday winds will be northwest 20 to 35 mph with 
  gusts to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent on Tuesday.

* AFFECTED AREA...Central North Dakota, including the James 
  River Valley.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are expected. A combination of strong winds, low relative 
humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire 
behavior.

&&

$$

NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-031>034-040>045-120415-
/O.EXP.KBIS.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260512T0300Z/
Divide-Burke-Williams-Mountrail-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-
Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-
Adams-Sioux-
1009 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026 /909 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026/

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

Humidity values will gradually increase overnight, and winds will
decrease in most areas. 

$$

CJS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
936 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of frost late tonight and early Monday morning over much
  of the James River Valley region.

- Critical fire weather conditions likely on Monday across
  western through most of central ND.

- Windy conditions and low humidity values through the rest of
  the upcoming week may lead to daily critical fire weather
  conditions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Quiet weather persists at the time of this mid evening update.
High based clouds have expanded across much of western and
central North Dakota at this time. Have blended in latest
satellite and model trends in the sky grids through the early
overnight period. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Quiet weather is found across western and central North Dakota
at the time of this early evening update. Have blended in the
latest satellite data into the cloud grids to capture the
higher coverage of cumulus in the southwest, and the slightly
faster evolution of the upper level clouds moving in out of
Montana than previously forecast. Overall, the forecast remains
in good shape.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Current surface analysis places high pressure over southern
Manitoba and northwest Minnesota into North Dakota, with trough
noted to the lee of the Canadian and Northern Rockies. Upper
level analysis places trough off the west coast with ridge over
the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. Over our area, quiet
weather continues with light winds.

The story for the week will be mostly dry and frequently windy
conditions. The biggest overall weather impacts will be in
regard to fire weather. Those are discussed in the fire weather
section below.

For tonight, a short-wave upper level trough will push up the
back side of the aforementioned ridge overnight. In response,
aforementioned surface trough closes off over over southeast
Alberta and moves easterly over south central Saskatchewan. Light
winds over our area will become southerly and breezy through
the night from west to east as this low moves east. Over our far
eastern area, winds will be slow to increase giving time for
temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 30s. Therefore a
Frost Advisory has been issued for Foster, Stutsman, LaMoure,
and Dickey Counties.

On Monday, surface low will push through the far southern
prairie provinces as the aforementioned short wave busts through
the ridge into the northern plains. Southerly winds will be on
the increase, becoming quite gusty especially over central North
Dakota. As we get towards mid day, a cold front will enter the
west, with winds switching towards the northwest and increasing.
The front will move east through the afternoon, entering
central North Dakota by late afternoon/early evening.

Dry air will be over our area, especially behind the front, but
ahead of the front over parts of central North Dakota, dewpoints
will be a bit higher. Guidance continues to suggest a mainly
north to south orientated ribbon of instability developing and
sliding east. Although this may only be CAPE values of ~200-500
J/kg, quite high forecast deep layer shear (50-60 kts effective
bulk) is noted, thus the potential for strong winds. With high-
res models starting to pick up on this combined with the
approaching upper wave/cold front, will continue to paint in low
shower/storm chances over much of northwest/central North
Dakota in the afternoon and evening. Gusty winds continue
overnight, especially over central North Dakota.

Gusty winds continue behind the front on Tuesday. Although the
airmass moving in is quite mild in temperature, good mixing of
stronger winds aloft will keep conditions quite windy,
especially over central North Dakota.

Surface high passes over Tuesday night with southerly winds
developing for Wednesday as the next lee trough deepens and
closes off to the east of the Rockies, again coinciding with
dry conditions enhancing the fire threat.

As we get later in the week uncertainty remains as clusters
continue to show a split in solutions. With that said, the
general pattern looks to be somewhat unsettled thus the forecast
will keep low precipitation chances in each day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 930 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility is expected at all terminals
throughout the 00Z TAF period. Isolated showers or thunderstorms
are possible over portions of north central North Dakota into
the James River Valley Monday afternoon, though confidence in
this impacting any given TAF site is low. Variable winds will
organize out of the south this evening and will continue to
strengthen overnight, becoming strong Monday morning and
afternoon. Winds will generally turn to the west northwest
through the late afternoon and the end of the TAF period as a
cold front moves across the forecast area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 439 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for most of western
through central North Dakota Monday.

Breezy southerly winds will begin to develop tonight as low
pressure encroaches from southwestern Canada. Winds will then
increase through Monday morning and early afternoon for the
eastern half of the state as the low passes through. Associated
trailing cold frontal boundary will then shift winds to a
northwesterly direction over western parts of the state in the
afternoon, followed by eastern parts of the state in the
evening. This frontal boundary will produce further windy
conditions over western, and especially northwestern, North
Dakota. In regard to dewpoints, aforementioned southerly winds
will bring brief higher dewpoints, and therefore, somewhat
higher relative humidity values. There is still
some question as to the timing and exact location of the
transition between the higher and lower values. Still, strong
winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph, combined with dry
conditions, will likely produce critical fire weather
conditions for most of western through central ND Monday.What could
further complicate matters is that there is a low chance of
showers and a few thunderstorms over northwest and central North
Dakota Monday afternoon and evening. Further enhanced and
erratic winds are possible with any showers or thunderstorms
that develop.

Winds will diminish Monday night over most areas west of Highway
83, though remain breezy along and east. Very windy conditions out
of the northwest with gusts up to 50 mph are then expected
Tuesday afternoon for the eastern half of the state. Weaker winds
to as low as 15 to 20 mph near the ND/MT border are forecast
further west. Similar to Monday, minimum relative humidity will
drop in western North Dakota, though remain a bit higher in the
east. Combined, these dry and windy conditions will likely
result in further critical fire weather conditions for much of
the state. Winds will rapidly diminish Tuesday evening with the
combination of encroaching high pressure and a loss of diurnal
heating.

Wednesday through the end of the week will see continued mostly
dry conditions. Minimum relative humidity across western
through central ND will remain low with the lowest values
consistently west of Highway 83. Periodically windy conditions
are also expected, though confidence in just how strong the
winds become decreases towards the tail end of the week with
significant differences in the cluster analysis Thursday. Low
chances for a few showers and thunderstorms also enter the
picture at the end of the week. With all this, additional days
of critical fire weather conditions for at least parts of the
area are possible to finish out the latter half of the week.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for NDZ001>004-009>012-017>022-031>036-040>048-050-051.
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for NDZ025-037-048-
051.

&&

UPDATE...Adam
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...Adam
FIRE WEATHER...JJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
937 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

NDZ001>004-009-010-012-017>020-022-031>033-035-036-040>044-046-
047-050-055>062-120245-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Williams-Mountrail-McHenry-
McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-Sheridan-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-
Burleigh-Kidder-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Emmons-Logan-
McIntosh-Northwest Ward-Central and Southern Ward/Minot Area-
Western McLean-Eastern McLean-Western Morton-Eastern Morton-
Western Sioux-Eastern Sioux-
937 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 /837 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Monday into Monday evening. See
weather.gov/bis for details.

Several days of critical fire weather conditions are possible
this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard
procedures, including through our social media accounts.

NDZ005-013-023-120245-
Rolette-Pierce-Wells-
937 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota and south central North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Several days of near critical to critical fire weather conditions
are possible this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard
procedures, including through our social media accounts.

NDZ025-037-120245-
Foster-Stutsman-
937 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Frost Advisory is in effect late tonight. See weather.gov/bis
for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A Frost Advisory is in effect early Monday morning. See
weather.gov/bis for details.

Several days of near critical to critical fire weather conditions
are possible this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard
procedures, including through our social media accounts.

NDZ048-051-120245-
La Moure-Dickey-
937 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Frost Advisory is in effect late tonight. See weather.gov/bis
for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A Frost Advisory is in effect early Monday morning. A Fire
Weather Watch is in effect Monday into Monday evening. See
weather.gov/bis for details.

Several days of critical fire weather conditions are possible
this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard
procedures, including through our social media accounts.