Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
215 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening, mainly
  along and east of the Mississippi River. The main hazards will
  be large hail and damaging winds with a low but non-zero
  tornado threat.

- Temperatures gradually warming into the weekend

- Hot and humid conditions expected Sunday through mid next week
  with triple digit heat indices looking more probable (40-70%)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Today: Strong to Marginally Severe Storms

Isolated to scattered storms have popped up across the Upper
Mississippi River Valley early this afternoon. Thus far, much of the
activity has been rather pulse-like in nature: coming down almost as
quick as they're going up. A few have been able to sustain
themselves for longer than 15-30 minutes and have been able to
produce some dime size hail. As the atmosphere continues to
destabilize this afternoon, forcing will only continue to push
further east with a cold front at the surface and a short wave
trough in the mid/upper levels draped across the Upper Midwest.
24.17 RAP analysis suggests 1000+ J/kg of MLCAPE already present
across the area with effective shear around 30-40 kts. So far
it seems the modest shear has been what's holding the activity
back but as this increases over the coming hours, an increase in
supercellular structures will be possible. The main hazard with
any storms today will likely be large hail given the seasonably
cool temperatures aloft, even though lapse rates aren't
particularly impressive. Damaging winds will be a possibility,
especially on the southern end of the risk area (southwest
Wisconsin) with drier air in the mid/low levels leading to
slightly higher levels of DCAPE. While the tornado threat looks
pretty low overall given the straight hodographs (meaning
splitting cells are more likely overall) and decently high LCLs,
some weak low level helicity could lead to a brief spin up this
afternoon. The threat for strong to severe storms shifts to the
east through the evening hours as the frontal boundary and
shortwave push off towards the Great Lakes.

Thursday - Saturday: Warming Up

Generally benign conditions expected for the end of the week and
into the early portions of the weekend. Upper level flow will turn
zonal with weak surface high pressure sitting over the Upper
Midwest. This high pressure looks to keep a stationary front to our
south Friday into Saturday. Temperatures through this time period
will be on an upward swing in the upper 70s to mid 80s by Saturday.
Dew points will also be on an upward trend with mid 50s Thursday and
Friday and upper 50s to mid 60s on Saturday. And it only gets worse
from there...

Sunday - Early Next Week: Hot and Humid

A longwave trough is expected to deepen over the Western CONUS this
weekend. In response, a high amplitude ridge is expected to build
from the Lower Mississippi River Valley into the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes by Sunday into Monday. With it, a surge of warm gulf air
will surge north. The 850 mb thermal ridge will also set up across
the northern plains with 850 mb temps on the order of 10-15 deg C
above normal for early summer. As such, surface temperatures will
soar into the upper 80s to mid 90s with dew points in the upper 60s
to mid 70s. This could lead to triple digit heat indices and the
need for heat headlines. The heat is expected to linger into at
least mid week with chances for rain each day as shortwave
impulses traversing the ridge interact with the abundant
moisture across the area. Whether these storms will be strong to
severe is unknown as significant uncertainty with this activity
remains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

MVFR/IFR CIGs have finally eroded across the area with mostly
VFR conditions currently present. Storms have started to pop up
across portions of the area, primarily across Southwest and
West Central Wisconsin. With additional development expected
along and just west of the Mississippi River in the coming
hours with a passing weak cold front, have included a TEMPO
group at LSE to account for the potential for storms this
afternoon. Storm coverage will then shift east of the river and
away from the terminals. The rest of the period will then
feature generally benign conditions with west to northwest winds
at or below 10 kts.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Barendse
AVIATION...Barendse

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1015 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

WIZ017-029-033-034-041>044-053>055-061-251915-
Taylor-Clark-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-
Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
1015 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Wisconsin...north central Wisconsin...southwest Wisconsin and
west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms will likely develop later this morning and
afternoon. Some may become strong to severe with the main risk
being large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two cannot be
ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later today.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ032-251915-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Buffalo-
1015 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Minnesota and west central
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

No action needed.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
143 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     Hail             Longwood                44.89N 90.60W
06/24/2026  M1.25 Inch       Clark              WI   Trained Spotter

&&

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