Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1239 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Maybe some small chances (less than 5 percent chance) of severe
weather late this morning and early afternoon in Wisconsin.

- Temperatures gradually warming from Saturday through Monday.

- Maybe some severe weather Monday night into Tuesday morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Today

A shortwave trough will move east through the region this morning
and early afternoon. As the overnight progresses, the shower and
thunderstorm coverage will gradually wane. This will allow for some
recovery in the instability (up to 1800 J/kg) from late morning into
the afternoon. The greatest instability will be found in Wisconsin.
As the 850 mb and 700 mb winds increase, the hodograph will increase
in length. This might result in a few splitting supercells. The
better chances of this occurring would be in central and eastern
Wisconsin. With temperatures cooling aloft in the afternoon, hail
would be the greatest severe weather threat, but even that threat
looks to be very low (2-5%). There might be even a secondary threat
for damaging wind gusts.

High temperatures will range from the lower 70s to lower 80s.
The warmest temperatures will be in the Mississippi and
Wisconsin river valleys.

Thursday and Friday

Zonal flow will develop across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS
on Thursday and then continue into Friday. A Canadian surface high
over Lake Superior will keep a stationary front located from the Mid-
Mississippi River Valley east into the Mid-Atlantic Region. A dry
north to east flow will keep the rain chances well south of the
forecast area. High temperatures will be in the lower and mid-70s on
Thursday, and in the mid- to upper 70s on Friday.

Saturday through Monday

The models remain in good agreement that a longwave trough will
gradually deepen from Saturday into Monday over the western CONUS.
As this occurs, a 500 mb ridge will build northward from the western
and central Gulf northward to Hudson Bay. On Sunday, a warm front
will provide a chance of showers and storms as it moves east and
northeast through the Upper Mississippi River Valley. High
temperatures will gradually warm during this time period. They will
range from the mid-70 to lower 80s on Saturday, in the 80s on
Sunday, and range from the upper 80s to mid-90s on Monday. With dew
points climbing into the lower and mid-70s, heat indices will likely
range from the mid-90s to 105.

Monday night and Tuesday

A shortwave trough ejects out of the western ridge on Monday night.
As this system moves through the Dakotas and northern and western
Minnesota, the ridge gradually flattens. This will provide a chance
of showers and storms. Initially the capping will be strong enough
on Monday and much of the Monday evening. This will allow most-
unstable CAPES to build into the 2-3K J/kg range. During the mid- to
late afternoon, discrete supercell thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the Dakotas and northern and western Minnesota.
During the evening, the cold pools with these storms will likely
coalesce and a line of storms will move into the region either
during the late evening or the overnight. If severe weather occurs
in our area, it would be likely in the form of damaging winds. High
temperatures on Tuesday will likely be around 90. Heat indices will
range from the mid-90s to around 100.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

MVFR/IFR CIGs have finally eroded across the area with mostly
VFR conditions currently present. Storms have started to pop up
across portions of the area, primarily across Southwest and
West Central Wisconsin. With additional development expected
along and just west of the Mississippi River in the coming
hours with a passing weak cold front, have included a TEMPO
group at LSE to account for the potential for storms this
afternoon. Storm coverage will then shift east of the river and
away from the terminals. The rest of the period will then
feature generally benign conditions with west to northwest winds
at or below 10 kts.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Barendse

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1015 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

WIZ017-029-033-034-041>044-053>055-061-251915-
Taylor-Clark-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-
Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
1015 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Wisconsin...north central Wisconsin...southwest Wisconsin and
west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms will likely develop later this morning and
afternoon. Some may become strong to severe with the main risk
being large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two cannot be
ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later today.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ032-251915-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Buffalo-
1015 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Minnesota and west central
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

No action needed.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
834 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0834 AM     Rain             Wabasha                 44.37N 92.05W
06/24/2026  E1.60 Inch       Wabasha            MN   Public

&&

KB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
854 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 AM     Rain             3 SW Cummingsville      43.85N 92.30W
06/24/2026  M1.50 Inch       Olmsted            MN   Public

&&

KB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
143 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     Hail             Longwood                44.89N 90.60W
06/24/2026  M1.25 Inch       Clark              WI   Trained Spotter

&&