Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
356 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected to persist
  through the weekend. With high end critical, due to higher wind,
  days expected Sunday and Monday.

- Severe storms may be possible Sunday and Monday in the eastern
  Panhandles depending on the location of a dryline.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Widely scattered thunderstorms have formed across the central and
western TX Panhandle and the OK Panhandle this afternoon. With
very dry conditions in the low levels across the area, not much
rainfall is expected from these storms. The dry low levels will
promote the potential for very strong wind gusts, some of which
may be destructive wind gusts up to 80 mph. Due to this concern, a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the entire Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles through 10 PM this evening. Minor forecast
adjustments have been made to account for the watch issuance and
the latest radar trends.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Dry air at the surface is expected once again this afternoon. A
surface boundary with some slight convergence is progged to run
SSW to NNE dividing parts of the eastern combined Panhandles from
the west. East of the boundary slightly higher Tds will keep
minimum RH values in the 20 to 30 percent range while the west
sees RH values in the 12 to 20 percent range. Despite the higher
RH values in the east this is the area likely to see critical fire
weather conditions this afternoon as winds are expected to be
higher in the 15 to 25 mph range. This afternoon a mid level
shortwave will move into the area colliding with increased H7
theta-e advection. This will help kick off some scattered
afternoon/evening thunderstorms. With a dry surface layer, DCAPE
values are progged to be in the 1500-1800 J/Kg range adding to
concerns for severe wind gusts that could potentially exceed 80
mph. With the lack of moisture and such high bases to these storms
expected, little precipitation is expected and should limit
overall hail growth as well. Current CAMs runs suggest storms
starting in the west and moving east through the late afternoon
into early evening. Potentially with a second or third round. With
low precipitation storms, dry lightning is a concern for fire
starts today.

Thunderstorm activity should conclude by 10 PM tonight with maybe
a lingering isolated virga shower somewhere in the area. Surface
winds in the eastern Panhandles may hang on to breezy south to
southeasterly winds in the 15 to 20 mph range while the west sees
winds fall to near 10 mph. A surface low is expected to develop
over the northwest Panhandles into SE CO and NE NM. This low is
expected to keep winds near 15 to maybe 20 mph for parts of the
eastern Panhandles out of the south for Friday afternoon. The
northwestern Panhandles are expected to see more northerly winds
NW of the low. Although chances are really low, would not
completely rule out some isolated pop up showers/storms in the
east tomorrow as well. PoPs may only be around 10 with such low
probabilities of measuring 0.01".

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Dry and hot conditions continue through Saturday, with maybe some
elevated fire weather conditions continuing in the southwestern TX
Panhandle. An upper level system will approach the Panhandles
Sunday bringing with it stronger winds increasing the likelihood
of widespread critical fire weather conditions. This system may
bring even stronger winds Monday. Probability of gusts exceeding
50 mph increase into the 20 to 60 percent range on Monday for the
northwestern half of the combined Panhandles. Also, for Sunday and
Monday, severe storms will be a possibility in the far eastern
combined Panhandles depending on where a dryline sets up.

This aforementioned system will also bring some cooler air for Tue
and beyond. Afternoon temperatures in the 90s to even lower 100s
in some areas, will lower into the 80s for Tue and Wed. PoPs
remain low through the long term mainly relying on the afternoon
heat to dry convection. However, there are some hints that that
may change going into Wed night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Mostly VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period.
However, some low precipitation thunderstorms may impact the
terminals between 21Z and 02Z Friday. Confidence is low at this
time especially for KDHT and KGUY. Therefore, have not mentions in
the TAFs at this time, and may need amendments. Please not, due to
the nature of dry surface boundaries, these storms will have a
potential to produce severe and erratic winds at times. The
potential for small hail will exist too, with the probability of
large hail staying fairly low.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Elevated to low end critical fire weather conditions will continue
into the weekend. Sunday and Monday will be the big days to watch
as winds are expected to ramp up. RFTIs may reach as high as 7
especially in the west. A 10 to maybe 20 percent chances exist in
the northwest Panhandles to surpass 50 mph gusts on Sunday.
Monday those probabilities pick up to 40 to 60 percent with a
probability around 20 percent for Amarillo on Monday.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ003>005-009-
     010-014-015-019-020.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.

&&

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
138 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-150645-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
138 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible across the Panhandles this afternoon
through this evening. Some of the storms may be severe, with
damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard in addition to
lightning.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected across
the area this afternoon through this evening. A Red Flag Warning
has been issued for the eastern Panhandles due to the anticipated
critical fire weather threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon into evening, Friday
through Sunday. Thunderstorm activity will primarily favor the
eastern combined Panhandles.

Critical fire weather conditions will be possible on Sunday and
Monday across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
424 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     11 WNW Bootleg          34.89N 102.99W
05/14/2026  M60 MPH          Deaf Smith         TX   Mesonet

            60 MPH wind gust observed at WT Mesonet site
            11 miles WNW of Bootleg, TX.

&&

RLF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
442 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     11 WNW Bootleg          34.89N 102.99W
05/14/2026  M64 MPH          Deaf Smith         TX   Mesonet

            60 MPH wind gust observed at WT Mesonet site
            11 miles WNW of Bootleg, TX at 4:17 PM.
            Maximum wind gust of 64 MPH recorded at 4:28
            PM. The last wind gust occurred at 4:30 PM.

&&

RLF

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>