Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
903 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers in the central and northern
Panhandle today capable of moderate to heavy rain, which could
result in localized flooding.

- Very low chance (5-10%) of a storm or two capable of large hail
and damaging wind along and south of I-40 this afternoon and
evening.

- Low chance of strong to severe storms in the southwest Panhandles
on Friday.

- Very warm and dry conditions will return over the weekend.

- Scattered showers and storms return next week and the main concern
with these storms at this time would be excessive rainfall, as the
threat for severe weather at this time is very low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Upper low continues to spin over the Panhandle this afternoon and
while better forcing for showers and storms is to the north in
southern CO/KS, we do still have some pop up showers along and south
of the main circulation from afternoon heating.  18z KAMA sounding
showing a moist, yet unstable near the surface profile, which lines
up with the pop up showers around the area. Low level CAPE as well
as surface vorticity continue to be supportive of landspouts today
with these showers/storms. But later this afternoon as we heat up
more, we could see some isolated storms strong enough to produce
hail up to an inch or maybe a 60 mph wind gusts between I-40 and the
Lubbock area.  So will not rule out a severe storm or two this
afternoon and evening.  As the system slowly tracks north tonight
the pops will drop off from the south west to northeast, where we
will be pretty much done by early to mid morning tomorrow.  Tomorrow
is expected to be a fairly quiet and warmer day with highs in the
80s.  And while most of the area tomorrow should be free of rain, we
do anticipate an isolated storm or two to pop up around the
Panhandle.  Given the recent moisture and the ample surface heating
it will help to get some cu building up, and despite being under
more of a weak ridge tomorrow, there could be an impulse or two move
over the Panhandles during peak heating to help kick off a storm or
two. The storm may be strong, but don't anticipate anything severe.
Things should quiet down overnight tomorrow night before we get our
next shot at weather on Friday.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Friday's severe threat is starting to show promise now in the
southwest Panhandles.  While CAPE values were on the higher side to
the east yesterday, and still showing that same likelihood today,
the cap looks to win out before all that instability moves east into
OK, so confidence has dropped on storms further east.  We still run
into the influence of the negative tilt trough over eastern NV, and
it does appear to have a shortwave with it that will be well timed
to track across the southwest Panhandles mid to late Friday
afternoon.  ML CAPE values range from about 750-1500 J/kg for that
area and modest shear would support strong to severe storms.  We'll
have to keep an eye on this shortwave as well as the position and
timing of it.  But for now the severe threat seems reasonable for
the southwest on Friday. But will note that storms that develop
could track further east and that could expand the severe threat
further east.

Moving into the weekend, things have shifted a bit as an omega block
pattern sets up and while it's close, the position of the low over
the interior Pacific Northwest is set up just enough that we should
be under dry southwest flow, and the lee surface low's that are set
to develop on Saturday and Sunday. Very warm temperatures in the mid
80s to lower 90s on Saturday, and then again on Sunday temperatures
are expected to be widespread lower to mid 90s. While there is no
precipitation in the forecast over the weekend, we still need to be
careful given the recent moisture that we don't manage to heat up
enough to get a storm pop.  That being said, the RH values look to
bottom out in the 10 to 15 percent range on Saturday and Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday Surface high over the Great Lakes will track down
and push further east from the omega block pattern.  That will push
the higher dewpoints over the Panhandles and with some subtle
shortwaves under the south to southwest flow over the Panhandles
will certainly favor scattered storms to trigger on both days. Right
now the focus of the storms will be moderate to heavy rain, but as
we get closer, we'll see if there's any shift towards severe,
weather.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 901 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

A weather system continues to impact the panhandles this evening
into the overnight hours. This is causing light rain showers and
the occasional thunderstorm near or at KGUY now through Thursday
morning. Low clouds of MVFR to IFR level can be expected at all
terminals this morning. These clouds then clear out with VFR
conditions returning to all terminals late Thursday morning.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...98

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
132 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-280645-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
132 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon with
large hail being main threat. Isolated landspouts can't be ruled
out with showers across the central Panhandles.

Heavy rainfall from thunderstorms has a low chance of causing
localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Friday is showing signs favorable for stronger thunderstorms in
the southern Panhandles.

There is the potential for rain showers and thunderstorms during
the afternoon Monday and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.