Wind Advisory 25, NWS Anchorage, AK

573 
WWAK71 PAFC 240256
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
656 PM AKDT Wed Sep 23 2026

AKZ771-772-240400-
/O.CAN.PAFC.WI.Y.0025.260925T0000Z-260925T1500Z/
Kodiak Island Northeast-Kodiak Island Southwest-
Including the cities of Akhiok, Old Harbor, Kodiak City, Port Lions,
Karluk, Ouzinkie, and Larsen Bay
656 PM AKDT Wed Sep 23 2026

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The front associated with the strong storm in the Bering has trended
weaker for Kodiak Island. Damaging winds are no longer expected.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
654 AM AKDT Wed Sep 23 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Isolated marine lightning over the central Gulf of Alaska is
  possible through Wednesday evening.

- Clearing skies and cool temperatures could lead to another night
  of patchy fog and widespread lows near or below freezing.

- The pattern shifts Thursday and Friday with rain along the coast
  and Kodiak Island. Strong, southeast winds also return to
  Southcentral. Forecast confidence continues to be medium
  overall, but localized rainfall amounts and wind speeds are low
  to medium.

Discussion:

Other than a few lower cloud decks over portions, current
satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over Southcentral.
A low circulation over the eastern Gulf of Alaska is slowing down
and weakening. Stray showers moving north to south are located
near Cape Suckling and across the Gulf. Temperatures as of 5AM this
morning are similar, if not colder than yesterday with many areas
in the low to mid 30s and a few spots into the upper 20s.
Glennallen has already dropped in the lower 20s.

The low in the eastern Gulf is weakening as it stalls well
offshore. With cold air aloft, a lightning strike or two cannot be
ruled out in the central Gulf this afternoon and evening.
Otherwise, the forecast remains largely on track with scattered
showers and small-craft winds in the central Gulf through
Thursday morning. This low will meander southeast out of the Gulf
by Thursday morning. Weather across Southcentral will be
relatively quiet through Thursday morning with mostly sunny/clear
skies and high temperatures in the low to mid 50s. We will have
one more night of colder temperatures, with widespread 20s
possible for the Copper River Basin and low to mid 30s elsewhere.
Some typically colder locations may see colder temperatures
Wednesday morning as East Anchorage, Soldotna, Butte, and Willow
may drop as low as the upper 20s and some lows in the teens are
possible in the Copper River Basin (10 to 20 percent chance).

A much more potent system from the Bering Sea will send a strong
front into the southwestern Gulf and Kodiak Island starting
Thursday afternoon. Confidence remains at medium as models
continue to slightly differ on the progression and strength of the
incoming front. None-the-less, chances for precipitation will
increase throughout the day Thursday for Prince William Sound,
northern Gulf coast, and for Kodiak Island, becoming likely
(moderate to heavy rainfall rates at times) by Thursday evening.
Chances spread into Southcentral for Friday as the front
progresses north and east. Strong southeast flow across the coastal
mountains will keep communities on the leeside drier, especially
those farther from the Gulf. Places at lower elevations from the
northern Cook Inlet through the Mat-Su, including Anchorage, will
see less precipitation, up to few hundredths of an inch.
Little to no precipitation is expected across the Copper River
Basin, Talkeetna Mountains, and Wrangell Mountains for Friday as
well. Gale-force winds will also accompany the front as it lifts
through the Gulf Thursday and along the northern Gulf coast and
into Prince William Sound on Friday. Winds could be gusty through
gaps such as Knik and Copper Rivers. Turnagain Arm winds could
affect South Anchorage and the Hillside, but there is low
confidence in the magnitude of these winds at this time. Stay
tuned.

- PA/Rux

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Thursday)...

Key Messages:

* A strong Bering Sea low is forecast to impact the Bering Sea,
  Aleutian and Pribilof Islands, and Southwest Alaska beginning
  this afternoon into this weekend.

* For the Bering Sea: Widespread areas of gale force winds, some
  areas of sustained storm force winds with hurricane force gusts
  expected through the Western and Central Aleutians including
  near Adak/Atka and Shemya where High Wind Warnings are in
  effect. Expect elevated wave heights, with seas up to 25 to 35
  ft possible.

* For Southwest Alaska: Southeasterly gale force winds likely, and
  a Wind Advisory has been issued for Coastal Kuskokwim Delta and
  the Western Capes. A Coastal Flood Watch has been issued with
  primary communities of concern being Kwigillingok/Kongiganak and
  Kipnuk, and communities near and along the mouth of the
  Kuskokwim River.

Discussion:

Calm conditions continue in the eastern Bering and Southwest
Alaska this morning as the ridge of high pressure remains
overhead. The quiet weather for Southwest Alaska will continue
through this evening ahead of the approaching strong frontal
system. Expect interior locations that see clear skies overnight
tonight to again drop to near or below freezing, similar to last
night and this morning.

In the western Bering, satellite imagery this morning shows the
large baroclinic leaf associated with the strengthening low as it
begins to interact with the remnants of Typhoon Dujuan. These
systems will continue to merge through this morning leading to the
consolidation and rapid strengthening of the low in the southern
Bering today. Much stronger winds will develop across the Bering
beginning this afternoon with ample tropically sourced moisture
leading to moderate to heavy rainfall along the front pushing east
across the Bering through Thursday morning.

As the low tracks into the central Bering by this afternoon
through Thursday morning, sustained gale-force winds are likely to
encompass much of the Bering Sea and Aleutians. Winds continue to
further strengthen this evening and overnight tonight as the low
reaches its minimum central pressure likely in the range of 950
to 960 mb. A swath of sustained storm-force winds along the
Aleutian Chain from Shemya to Atka are expected beginning late
this evening through Thursday evening as the low tracks east
across the southern Bering. Widespread storm-force gusts and
the potential for hurricane force gusts (>=75 mph) will be likely
for these areas. High Wind Warnings will be in effect from 10 PM
this evening to 10 AM AKDT Thursday for Shemya and Attu, and from
7 AM to 10 PM AKDT Thursday for Adak and Atka. The combination of
strong winds and long fetch could lead to high seas, perhaps on
the order of 25 to 35 ft across the Bering Sea and North Pacific
waters just south of the Aleutians, as well as the potential for
high surf for the Pribilof Islands.

For Southwest Alaska, there is high confidence for a gale-force
front reaching the coast tonight through Thursday morning. Strong
southeasterly winds increase with the arrival of the front with
the potential for gusts up to 60 mph along the immediate coast
through Thursday evening as the front moves inland. As such, a
Wind Advisory is in effect. Given the east- southeasterly
component to the initial front's wind field along the coast and
the decreasing astronomical tides, there is a lower likelihood for
coastal flooding at that time. However, by Friday morning,
coastal flood potential may rise depending on the track of the
low. Models continue to struggle on pinpointing the exact track of
the low as it nears the YK-Delta in the eastern Bering. A
potential southern track steering the low to the south of the
Kuskokwim Delta coast will help to keep winds southeasterly and
reduce flooding potential, while a northward track towards Nunivak
Island will allow for much more steady onshore flow across the
Delta coast, leading to potentially higher water levels. Water
levels on average of 1 to 2 feet above the normal highest tide
line are expected, with Kwigillingok showing the highest worst
case scenario water levels, at 4 feet above the normal highest
tide line. Stay tuned for forecast updates as this storm continues
to evolve.

-JH/CL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

Southcentral: A weak ridge crosses the Gulf of Alaska ahead of
multiple fronts moving through the region this weekend. The first,
and strongest front, continues to bring southeasterly winds and
rain to Kodiak Island, Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William
Sound coasts Saturday . Rain spreads to inland locations Saturday
and continues into Sunday. Current guidance ind speeds exceeding
60 mph along the Eastern Kenai Peninsula and the Gulf of Alaska
range from a 40% to 60% chance this weekend. The greatest
rainfall amounts from this front currently are expected along the
coast from the Eastern Kenai Peninsula to Cordova. Another front
brings additional rain and elevated winds to the region through
Sunday afternoon. A low pressure system forms off the Prince
William Sound coast early next week traveling northward toward
the Kenai Peninsula by mid-week continuing the fall-like weather.

Southwest: A deep low in the Bering Sea will bring excessive
rainfall and onshore winds to coastal areas Saturday. These
conditions could cause flooding of inland rivers too on Saturday.
Wind gusts and precipitation diminish Sunday. However, continued
waves of moisture will bring periods of rain through early next
week. Additionally, winds gusts in the Central Aleutians, from
from Attu through Dutch Harbor, will diminish through the day
Saturday. Scattered rain showers are expected to continue into
next week across the Aleutians as waves of moisture move
throughout the Bering Sea.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Light
northerly winds will shift southerly around 04Z, then become
easterly around 12Z.

LM

&&