Gale Warning 526, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
500 PM AKDT Tue Sep 22 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Isolated marine lightning over the central Gulf of Alaska is
  possible through Wednesday evening.

- Clearing skies and cool temperatures could lead to patchy fog,
  and widespread lows near or below freezing. Breezy north winds
  through terrain gaps will increase tonight through Wednesday
  morning.

- The pattern shifts Thursday and Friday with rain along the coast
  and Kodiak Island. Strong, southeast winds also return to
  Southcentral. Forecast confidence is medium overall, but the
  magnitude in rainfall and wind speed is low to medium.

Discussion:

Current satellite imagery shows clearing skies over Southcentral
as the system which moved onshore yesterday has mostly dissipated.
A low which formed southeast of Kodiak Island last night has
phased into a different low which moved from the North Pacific to
the southeastern Gulf this morning. Some lingering showers persist
along the Alaska Range, otherwise the rest of Southcentral is dry
with temperatures in the low 50s at lower elevations.

The low in the southeastern Gulf stall by Wednesday morning and
remains well offshore. With cold air aloft, a lightning strike or
two cannot be ruled out in the central Gulf through Wednesday
evening. Otherwise, scattered showers and small-craft force winds
will be seen in the central Gulf through Thursday morning as a
front from the low rotates through the Gulf. This low moves
southeast out of the Gulf by Thursday morning. With the low
remaining offshore over the southeastern Gulf, weather across
Southcentral will be relatively quiet through Thursday afternoon.
Clouds continue to clear out across much of SOuthcentral through
Wednesday. This will result in colder overnight temperatures, with
widespread 20s possible for the Copper River Basin and low to mid
30s elsewhere. Some typically colder locations may see colder
temperatures Wednesday morning as East Anchorage, Soldotna, Butte,
and Willow may drop as low as the upper 20s and some lows in the
teens are possible (10 to 20 percent chance) in the Copper River
Basin. This also could lead to the development of overnight patchy
fog at lower elevations throughout Southcentral, especially
tonight. Offshore winds look to increase later night through north
to south terrain gaps through Wednesday morning. Wednesday and
Thursday morning will see dry conditions across Southcentral with
high temperatures in the low to mid 50s.

A much more potent system from the Bering Sea will send a strong
front into the southwestern Gulf and Kodiak Island starting
Thursday afternoon. Confidence is still medium with the timing of
the front as models slightly differ on progression and strength.
Chances for precipitation will increase throughout the day
Thursday for Prince William Sound, northern Gulf coast, and for
Kodiak Island, becoming likely (moderate to heavy rainfall rates
at times) by Thursday evening. As the front moves closer to
Southcentral on Friday, chances for precipitation increase along
the western Alaska Range as well. With strong southeast flow,
places at lower elevations from the northern Cook Inlet through
the Mat-Su Valleys, including Anchorage, see lower chances for
precipitation. Chances for precipitation remain low across the
Copper River Basin, Talkeetna Mountains, and Wrangell Mountains
Friday as well. Gale- force winds will also accompany the front
as it lifts through the Gulf Thursday and Friday. Winds could be
gusty through Turnagain Arm Friday afternoon, affecting South
Anchorage and the Hillside, but there is low confidence in the
magnitude of these winds at this time. Stay tuned.

- PA

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Thursday)...

Key Messages:

* A strong Bering Sea low is forecast to impact the Bering Sea,
  Aleutian and Pribilof Islands, and Southwest Alaska beginning
  Wednesday afternoon into this weekend.

* For the Bering Sea: Widespread areas of gale force winds, some
  areas of sustained storm force winds with hurricane force gusts
  expected through the Central Aleutians including near Adak/Atka
  where a High Wind Warning is in effect. Expect elevated wave
  heights, with seas up to 25 to 35 ft possible. High surf
  possible for Pribilof Islands.

* For Southwest Alaska: Southeasterly gale force winds likely, and
  a Wind Advisory has been issued for Coastal Kuskokwim Delta and
  the Western Capes. A Coastal Flood Watch has been issued with
  primary communities of concern being Kwigillingok/Kongiganak and
  Kipnuk, and communities near and along the mouth of the
  Kuskokwim River.

Discussion:

Ridging remains in place for now over the eastern Bering and
Southwest Alaska over the next couple of days, promoting a period
of quiet weather for today into Wednesday. The colder airmass over
Southwest Alaska also lingers through Wednesday night, resulting
in nighttime and morning temperatures to again fall into the low
to mid 30s across much of Southwest Alaska and upper 20s for
interior locations through Wednesday night.

Out west, a strengthening low pressure system that has developed
just to the south of the Kamchatka Peninsula reached the far
western Aleutian Islands this morning. Following closely behind
this low pressure system are the remnants of Typhoon Dujuan
curving northeast across the North Pacific towards the Aleutian
Chain. By Wednesday morning, these systems will merge, allowing
for much stronger winds across the Bering and eventually into
Southwest, as well as reinforcing the Bering with ample tropically
sourced moisture. By Wednesday morning, models are generally
agreeing on the systems merging their energies, allowing the low
center to deepen quickly.

By Wednesday morning, small craft winds become much more
widespread across the Bering as the frontal system quickly
strengthens and tracks east. As the low tracks into the central
Bering by Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning, sustained
gale-force winds are likely to encompass much of the Bering Sea
and Aleutians, with sustained storm-force winds along the
Aleutian Chain from the Rat Islands to Adak and Atka through
Thursday expected. Widespread gusts to storm- force and
potentially hurricane force (>=75 mph) will be likely in this
area, as such a High Wind Warning is in effect from 7AM to 10PM
AKDT Thursday. The combination of strong winds and long fetch
could lead to high seas, perhaps on the order of 25 to 35 ft
across the Bering Sea and North Pacific waters just south of the
Aleutians, as well as the potential for high surf for the Pribilof
Islands.

For Southwest Alaska, there is high confidence for a gale-force
front reaching the coast Wednesday night through Thursday morning.
Strong southeasterly winds increase with the arrival of the front
with the potential for gusts up to 60 mph along the immediate
coast through Thursday evening as the front moves inland. As such,
a Wind Advisory is in effect. Given the east-southeasterly
component to the initial front's wind field along the coast and
the decreasing astronomical tides, there is a lower likelihood for
coastal flooding at that time. However, by Friday morning, coastal
flood potential rises as winds shift southerly, and allow for much
more steady onshore flow across the Delta coast. Water levels on
average of 1 to 2 feet above the normal highest tide line are
expected, with Kwigillingok showing the highest worst case
scenario water levels, at 4 feet above the normal highest tide
line.

-JH/CL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

Southcentral: A weak ridge crosses the Gulf of Alaska ahead of
multiple fronts moving through the region this weekend. The first,
and strongest front, continues to bring southeasterly winds and
rain to Kodiak Island, Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William
Sound coasts Saturday . Rain spreads to inland locations Saturday
and continues into Sunday. Current guidance ind speeds exceeding
60 mph along the Eastern Kenai Peninsula and the Gulf of Alaska
range from a 40% to 60% chance this weekend. The greatest
rainfall amounts from this front currently are expected along the
coast from the Eastern Kenai Peninsula to Cordova. Another front
brings additional rain and elevated winds to the region through
Sunday afternoon. A low pressure system forms off the Prince
William Sound coast early next week traveling northward toward
the Kenai Peninsula by mid-week continuing the fall-like weather.

Southwest: A deep low in the Bering Sea will bring excessive
rainfall and onshore winds to coastal areas Saturday. These
conditions could cause flooding of inland rivers too on Saturday.
Wind gusts and precipitation diminish Sunday. However, continued
waves of moisture will bring periods of rain through early next
week. Additionally, winds gusts in the Central Aleutians, from
from Attu through Dutch Harbor, will diminish through the day
Saturday. Scattered rain showers are expected to continue into
next week across the Aleutians as waves of moisture move
throughout the Bering Sea.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions with light and primarily northerly winds
will continue through the TAF period.

&&