Small Craft Advisory 67, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
422 AM AKST Fri Jan 23 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

The ridge of high pressure that has remained parked over inland
Alaska will become more elongated over the weekend with axis
orientation looking to set-up from northeastern Russian to the
Seward Peninsula and down towards the northern Gulf by late Saturday
night. The ridge will then get nudged back west and eventually
looking to get pinched off as a deep Arctic low drops toward the
Northwest Territories. The front will push down across northern
Alaska before stalling near the Alaska Range. Not to be outdone, a
series of lows will lift northwards out of the North Pacific. This
will place much of Southcentral in the awkward position of being
between systems. For now that will keep a stout inversion in place
with the potential for fog development overnight for lower
elevations for the Anchorage Bowl and northern Cook Inlet, the Mat-
Su Valley, and the Copper River Valley through the weekend.

The first of these North Pacific disturbances will work up across
Kodiak Island today bringing the potential for some scattered
showers later today to the east side of the island and the southern
end of the Kenai Peninsula. A stronger wave will lift north towards
the AKPEN on Saturday with more widespread precipitation for Kodiak
and the eastern AKPEN. Temperature profiles continue to keep the
precipitation type mostly rain for the lower elevations with the
potential for 1-2 inches of rainfall through Saturday night. Gusty
winds will accompany this second system with gales expected through
Shelikof Strait.

- PP

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Sunday night)...

High pressure extends across much of the state of Alaska into the
eastern Bering Sea this morning, promoting dry conditions and
mostly clear skies, with the exception of some stratus and fog
lingering over portions of the Kuskokwim Delta, near Togiak, and
Nelson Lagoon/Port Moller. Out west, another North Pacific low is
beginning to push its front into the western and central
Aleutians. The warm air associated with this incoming low will
keep precipitation all rain as the main impacts of gale force
south to southeasterly winds and rainfall remain west of Atka and
the Pribilof Islands. Winds reach a peak this afternoon with
storm force winds moving through Shemya and Attu as the low
center passes just west of the Near Islands. The low then dashes
west toward Kamchatka tonight, allowing winds in the Bering Sea
to diminish rather quickly with the exit of the low. Colder
temperatures wrapping in around the low will mean that
precipitation associated with the front, which lingers in the
western Bering Sea into the weekend, may gradually turn to snow.

For Southwest Alaska, cold, dry air near the surface has managed
to erode a lot of the cloud cover that was present this time
yesterday, though stratus and fog are holding on in some portions
of the area. This should gradually lift and clear today, with only
portions of the Kuskokwim Delta coast north of Kipnuk and interior
valleys of the Lower Kuskokwim and Bristol Bay holding onto some
fog/stratus by this evening. Temperatures will remain below
freezing for much of Southwest Alaska through tonight, with the
exception of the Alaska Peninsula which sees warming temperatures
today the arrival of the leading edge of a complex North Pacific
low. Increasing moist, southeasterly flow will bring warming
temperatures and rainfall primarily to the Pacific side of the
peninsula this evening/tonight. This warmer environment will
slowly work its way north into the rest of Southwest Alaska on
Saturday, though northeasterly flow at the surface will help to
preserve a below freezing air mass that will make freezing rain a
risk as precipitation begins to spread into the Bering side of the
Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay on Saturday/Saturday night in
response to a lifting shortwave trough. Along the Alaska
Peninsula, at least, easterly downsloping winds are expected to
bring temperatures above freezing and limit the potential for
freezing rain to near zero as far north as King Salmon.

Locations such as the northern Bristol Bay coast, interior
Bristol Bay, the western Capes, and the Kuskokwim Delta will be
more significantly at risk from some ice accretion with freezing
rain. The main question at this point is the longevity and areal
coverage of precipitation over Southwest Alaska this weekend,
which will influence the amount of freezing rain seen in these
areas. Some model solutions have only minimal precipitation
through Saturday night, while others show a lingering risk through
Sunday that could produce a tenth to a quarter inch of ice in
some locations. Stay tuned as new information becomes available
and the forecast is refined.

Quesada

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

The persistent upper level trough over Kamchatka and the western
Bering Sea looks likely to continue through at least early next
week. Several shortwaves and accompanying surface lows will lift
in succession from the North Pacific and across the western
Bering, keeping windy and wet weather conditions through the
Western and Central Aleutians.

The upper level ridge that has been comfortably sitting over
Mainland Alaska starts to show signs of flattening as an Arctic
low over the Yukon and Northwest Territories moves through
northern Alaska to the YK Delta early next week. Cold temperatures
around zero may return to the first few days of the week across
Southwest. Offshore, easterly flow at the surface seems likely.
Confidence decreases significantly by midweek, but guidance points
toward the Arctic low marching west and phasing with the main
trough over the Bering Sea. The flattening high pressure ridge,
would begin to rebuild across southern Alaska, near the AlCan
border with upper level southerly flow dominating the Mainland.

Weak surface lows could move as far east as the Alaska Peninsula
and the western Gulf through early next week. There are some
differences in the surfaces features that would allow for a more
east progression of the surface lows to bring precipitation to
Southcentral. The location of the precipitation (and therefore
amounts) and how much warmer air aloft (which will dictate
precipitation type) is highly variable for Southcentral.
Communities around Cook Inlet and Susitna Valley may even have a
chance of seeing the precipitation on this side of the mountains
for a period of time Monday. Embedded surface lows could continue
to make its way into Southcentral throughout the week, but
forecast confidence remains low for the trajectory of each of the
surface lows.

Rux

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Fog continuing early this morning is expected. As the
morning progresses, ceilings will lift steadily and scatter out by
the early afternoon. A return to foggy conditions overnight
tonight is possible given the lack of substantial forcing or
driving wind flow. The presence of intermittent high clouds may
interrupt the onset of fog tonight, or relieve it earlier this
morning.

&&