Gale Warning 88, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
432 PM AKST Thu Jan 22 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

High pressure remains over Southcentral Alaska, leading to mostly
clear skies and calm winds over the mainland. However, low
stratus and fog continues to develop during the night due to large
temperature inversions and ample low level moisture. These
temperature inversions are quite large, with temperatures at lower
elevations being up to 30 degrees colder than temperatures at
higher elevations. These temperatures at higher elevations are
often above freezing and are exceeding 40F to even 50F in some
locations. The top of the inversion is at around 5000 ft. These
conditions are expected to linger through Saturday when cooler air
aloft begins filtering into the mainland. The only area that is
seeing more active weather is Kodiak Island. A front will bring
higher precipitation chances by Friday, with winds also seeing an
increase. A secondary push will bring higher precipitation chances
and gale force winds in Shelikof Strait on Saturday.
Precipitation will mostly be in the form of rain, but a rain/snow
mix is possible at higher elevations.

Sunday has the front over Kodiak Island make its way to the North
Gulf. This could allow for mixed precipitation in the Kenai
Peninsula and rain in the Gulf coast. Sunday night may have this
precipitation move inland and bring higher precipitation chances
for Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valley, but uncertainty is high with
this scenario.

-JAR

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Sunday)...

There is not much change in the thinking for the expected weather
through the weekend. High pressure extending across the eastern
Bering Sea and southern mainland Alaska will keep dry conditions,
along with a mix of stratus, fog, and partly clear skies in place
over Southwest Alaska through Friday. Out west, another Kamchatka
low lifts north out of the Bering Sea with its front trailing
south toward the next low to move through the western and central
Aleutians. The warm air associated with this incoming low will
keep precipitation all rain as the main impacts of gale force
south to southeasterly winds and rainfall remain west of Atka and
the Pribilof Islands. Winds will reach a peak on Friday, possibly
as strong as storm force for Shemya and Attu, with the low center
passing just west of the Near Islands. The low then dashes west
toward Kamchatka Friday night allowing winds in the Bering Sea to
diminish rather quickly with the exit of the low. Colder
temperatures wrapping in around the low will mean that
precipitation associated with the front, which lingers in the
western Bering Sea into the weekend, may gradually turn to snow.

For Southwest Alaska, the cold dry air near the surface is
beginning to scour out fog across much of the region. However,
areas near the Kuskokwim River as holding onto the fog a bit
longer. Temperatures will remain below freezing tonight before a
pattern shift begins on Friday. At that point, a complex North
Pacific low lifts toward the Alaska Peninsula, bringing warmer air
and rainfall primarily to the Pacific-side of the peninsula.
Meanwhile, increased southeasterly flow aloft in response to the
low will maximize over the weekend, allowing for downsloping and
warmer temperatures for the Bering side of the Alaska Peninsula
and Southwest Alaska. Temperatures approach or exceed freezing,
which will make rain more likely as weak shortwaves lift across
the region and produce some light precipitation, which will be
most likely in the Bristol Bay region. However, some locations
will remain below freezing, allowing for the chance of some
freezing rain. The farther northwest one goes, the chance of
precipitation decreases, but the air at the surface will remain
colder, resulting in a better chance of freezing rain if
precipitation does occur. At this time, precipitation amounts
appear to be fairly minimal.

Quesada/EZ

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

The persistent upper level trough over Kamchatka and the western
Bering Sea looks likely to continue through at least early next
week. Several shortwaves and accompanying surface lows will lift
in succession from the North Pacific and across the western
Bering, keeping windy and wet weather conditions through the
Western and Central Aleutians.

The upper level ridge that has been comfortably sitting over
Mainland Alaska starts to show signs of flattening as an Arctic
low over the Yukon and Northwest Territories moves through
northern Alaska to the YK Delta early next week. Cold temperatures
around zero may return to the first few days of the week across
Southwest. Offshore, easterly flow at the surface seems likely.
Confidence decreases significantly by midweek, but guidance points
toward the Arctic low marching west and phasing with the main
trough over the Bering Sea. The flattening high pressure ridge,
would begin to rebuild across southern Alaska, near the AlCan
border with upper level southerly flow dominating the Mainland.

Weak surface lows could move as far east as the Alaska Peninsula
and the western Gulf through early next week. There are some
differences in the surfaces features that would allow for a more
east progression of the surface lows to bring precipitation to
Southcentral. The location of the precipitation (and therefore
amounts) and how much warmer air aloft (which will dictate
precipitation type) is highly variable for Southcentral.
Communities around Cook Inlet and Susitna Valley may even have a
chance of seeing the precipitation on this side of the mountains
for a period of time Monday. Embedded surface lows could continue
to make its way into Southcentral throughout the week, but
forecast confidence remains low for the trajectory of each of the
surface lows.

Rux

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...The 00z TAF leans towards persistence, with the idea that
the next 30 hours will look similar to what happened today.
Still, the timing of the densest fog continues to be the biggest
challenge. Specifically, the onset of fog this evening could
happen later than forecast as high clouds linger overhead.

&&