Small Craft Advisory 59, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
549 AM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The forecast remains on track as the weather across Mainland
Southcentral is dominated by a warm upper-level ridge of high
pressure anchored over the eastern Gulf and extending northward
over the region. Weak shortwave are rounding the top of the ridge,
allowing for occasional cloud cover to spill across Southcentral
through the end of the week. Temperatures, especially those in
valley locations, will be highly dependent on the timing and
extent of cloud cover. Aloft, temperatures will remain quite warm,
leading to a stagnant inversion across the region through the
next couple of days.

This inversion, coupled with periodic clear skies and cooler
temperatures near the surface, will also allow for the formation
of patchy fog across parts of coastal Cook Inlet and the Copper
River Valley.

Influence from the ridge begins to wane by the start of the
weekend as a North Pacific low tracks north toward the Alaska
Peninsula and its attendant front northward across the western
Gulf.

-TM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Friday night)...

A high amplitude blocking ridge extends from the Pacific
Northwest up across the Gulf of Alaska and into mainland Alaska.
A corresponding high amplitude trough is situated to the west over
the Northwest Pacific, western Bering Sea, and Aleutian Islands.
Conditions are quite benign over Southwest AK under the influence
of the ridge, with mostly cloudy skies and isolated patchy fog.
Surface temperatures have begun to drop back into the 20s for
many locations across Southwest Alaska and even colder
temperatures in portions of the Kuskokwim River Valley. A weak
front extending across the Pribilof Islands and Eastern Aleutians,
the tail edge of the front trailing off a low in northern
Kamchatka, will push slowly east toward the Kuskokwim Delta coast
today, with fairly minimal impact. The front is not associated
with any meaningful amount of precipitation, but above freezing
temperatures aloft with surface temperatures along the Kuskokwim
Delta coast having fallen back below freezing may lead to a trace
of ice from freezing rain or drizzle if any light precipitation
can generate this morning. The main storm track is way out west,
with deep lows tracking from the Northwest Pacific, then northward
across the western Aleutians and Bering Sea. One such storm is
beginning to push the next front into the southwestern Bering Sea,
with a storm force front lifting across the western Aleutians
into the Bering.

There will be very little change in the larger scale pattern and
associated weather through the end of the work week. The upper
ridge will undergo some transformations, but largely hold over
mainland AK and keep quiet, dry conditions in place. The one
wild-card is a trough and low caught between ridges at around 40N
in the central Pacific. The low lifts toward the Alaska Peninsula
on Friday, bringing rain to the Pacific coast, with downsloping in
southeasterly flow keeping the Bering side and Bristol Bay mostly
dry.

The Aleutians will continue to see periods of rain and strong
winds as Pacific storms track into the western Bering Sea, with
the present storm lifting across the region through tonight. In
the colder air mass moving in behind the front over the western
Aleutians, some snow showers will be possible today in
combination with strong southerly gales. Precipitation wanes for a
period of time in the evening as the front remains west of the
Pribilof Islands before the warm front of the next low
reintensifies rainfall over the central Aleutians tonight. This
low will be the warmest of all the systems this week, meaning high
confidence for nearly all rain along the Aleutian Chain as the
low tracks toward Attu through Friday.

-SEB/CQ

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

Confidence remains high for the amplified upper ridge to persist
across much of the state through the first half of the weekend,
continuing the recent pattern of dry and quiet weather. Similarly,
the persistent pattern of upper level troughing over Kamchatka
and the western Bering Sea also continues through the weekend and
likely through early next week. Several shortwaves and
accompanying surface lows will lift from the North Pacific and
into the western Bering, keeping unsettled and active weather
mainly confined to the Western and Central Aleutians to begin the
period. Each wave will move in succession through the Aleutians
and Bering Sea, bringing multiple rounds of potentially storm
force winds and precipitation through the weekend into early next
week.

The upper level ridge retreats to the northwest towards eastern
Siberia and the northern Bering by the end of the weekend. This
leads to a shift in the storm track and will allow for
disturbances to lift out of the North Pacific and into the Gulf,
bringing more active weather across the AKPen and coastal
Southcentral by late this weekend into early next week. Forecast
confidence begins to decrease early next week as the exact timing
and positioning of an upper level trough digging south across the
Interior into the lee of the departing ridge remains uncertain.
Despite the aforementioned uncertainties, both deterministic
models and ensemble means remain consistent in showing a signal
for a pattern shift for next week, trending temperatures colder
across all of Southern Alaska and bringing increased precipitation
chances to both inland and coastal Southcentral.

JH

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light and variable winds will prevail through the TAF
period. With narrow dewpoint depressions near the surface as well
as the light winds, the setup remains conducive for low stratus
and fog formation. With ridging and a strong inversion overhead,
this will be the case over the next few days.

Dense fog has formed this morning in Turnagain Arm and has moved
over the terminal. Expect this fog to persist through the mid to
late morning hours before conditions begin to improve. The
pattern, as stated above, will be conducive for fog to return late
tonight into Thursday morning.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
1023 AM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

AKZ701>704-711-723-743-746-749-220400-
Anchorage-Anchorage Hillside / Eagle River-East Turnagain Arm-
Portage-Lower Matanuska Valley-NW Kenai Peninsula-
Central Copper Valley-Southern Susitna Valley-
Southern Copper Valley-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Eklutna,
Anchorage Hillside, Upper Eagle River, Indian, Girdwood, Portage,
Palmer, Wasilla, Big Lake, Kenai, Soldotna, Sterling, Nikiski,
Glennallen, Gakona, Copper Center, Willow, Kenny Lake,
and Chitina
1023 AM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

...AREAS OF FOG TO RETURN TONIGHT TO THE COOK INLET AND VALLEY
LOCATIONS...

Upper level high pressure and mostly clear skies may allow for
areas of fog to redevelop overnight for the Cook Inlet region and
other valley locations. Give yourself some extra time for your
morning commute, reduce your speed, and only use your low beam
headlights when traveling.

AM