Gale Warning 82, NWS Anchorage, AK

111 
FZAK52 PAFC 212356
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-221245-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 976 mb low 310 nm NW of Attu continues toward Kamchatka Peninsula 
through Thu morning. A 982 mb N Pacific low reaches 130 nm by Fri 
afternoon at 970 mb. Its front reaches the western Aleutians Thu 
afternoon. Another weak front reaches the Alaska Peninsula Fri 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ750-221245-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ751-221245-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ752-221245-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ753-221245-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ754-221245-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ755-221245-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ756-221245-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ757-221245-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ758-221245-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ759-221245-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ770-221245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ772-221245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ771-221245-
Unalaska Bay-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ773-221245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ774-221245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ775-221245-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ776-221245-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ777-221245-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ778-221245-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ780-221245-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ781-221245-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ782-221245-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ783-221245-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ784-221245-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ785-221245-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ786-221245-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
23 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ787-221245-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
27 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18
ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ766-221245-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Areas of fog.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ760-221245-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters
2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Freezing
spray.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ761-221245-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ762-221245-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.

$$

PKZ763-221245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt.
.MON...N wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ764-221245-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas in ice
free waters 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

PKZ765-221245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt.
.THU...S wind 20 kt.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ767-221245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 25 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, SE wind 40 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight.
Seas in ice free waters 17 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
303 PM AKST Tue Jan 20 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Temperatures remain warmer aloft as upper level ridging continues
to anchor itself over Southcentral Alaska. There are a couple of
subtle shortwaves upstream of the ridge, with one of them arriving
to Kodiak Island this evening with lower ceilings and foggy
conditions. This is coincident with the ridge beginning to
somewhat flatten and lose amplitude over the region as a North
Pacific upper level low nudges in from the southwest and cuts into
the ridge. Until then, the inversion in place as noted by the
afternoon Anchorage sounding will keep the chance of fog in the
forecast for valley locations as atmospheric mixing will be
limited. This threat will be increased anywhere where there is
clearing and if any of the high clouds streaming over the region
can scatter out, allowing for more efficient radiational cooling.
For the Anchorage Hillside and mountain locations, generally
expect "warmer" overnight low temperatures than the valleys and
increased cloud cover. As the ridge loses its grip of the area by
the latter half of Wednesday, the expectation is for higher cloud
cover to decrease, except for locations with elevation as there is
really no big synoptic feature to mix out the inversion. Models
show a North Pacific low moving into the Gulf with its front late
week, but solutions vary on placement and timing. Current
deterministic runs of the GFS/NAM generally want to take the low
northwestward towards the Alaska Peninsula and its attendant front
northward across the Gulf.

-AM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Tonight through Friday)...

A high amplitude blocking ridge extends from the Pacific
Northwest U.S. coast northwestward across the Gulf of Alaska and
mainland Alaska. A corresponding high amplitude trough is found
over the Northwest Pacific and western Bering Sea and Aleutians.
Conditions are quite benign over Southwest AK under the influence
of the ridge, with mostly clear skies and patchy fog. The airmass
is quite warm, especially compared with the brutal cold of the
past month and a half. Surface temperatures are hovering in the
30s for most of Southwest, with the exception of below freezing
temperatures in portions of the Kuskokwim River Valley (north of
Aniak). A weak upper level short-wave exiting the west side of the
ridge is running into opposing flow as it pushes westward toward
the Aleutians. In combination with a weak inverted surface trough,
this is producing some very light rain along the southern Alaska
Peninsula from around Sand Point to King Cove. Meanwhile, the
storm track is way out west, with deep lows tracking from the
Northwest Pacific, then northward across the western Aleutians and
Bering Sea. One such storm is weakening as it track toward the
Kamchatka Peninsula, with winds diminishing across the central
Bering Sea. The next storm in line is quickly approaching the
southwest Bering Sea, with a Gale to Storm Force front approaching
the western Aleutians.

There will be very little change in the larger scale pattern and
associated weather through the end of the work week. The upper
ridge will undergo some transformations, but largely hold over
mainland AK and keep in place quiet weather and above normal
temperatures. The one wild-card is a trough and low caught between
ridges at around 40N in the central Pacific. Model guidance has
been trending further north with the track of this low in recent
runs, now bringing rain and wind up to the Alaska Peninsula on
Friday. You can't rule out a little bit of rain making it into
Bristol Bay by late Friday. Any precipitation that does make it
into Southwest AK would be light.

The Aleutians chain will continue to see periods of rain and
strong winds as Pacific storms track into the western Bering Sea,
with one storm moving through tonight through Wednesday and
another Thursday night through Friday. The greatest impacts from
these storm systems will be west of Dutch Harbor and west of the
Pribilof Islands.

-SEB

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

Confidence remains high for the amplified upper ridge to persist
across much of the state through the first half of the weekend,
continuing the recent pattern of dry and quiet weather. Similarly,
the persistent pattern of upper level troughing over Kamchatka
and the western Bering Sea also continues through the weekend and
likely through early next week. Several shortwaves and
accompanying surface lows will lift from the North Pacific and
into the western Bering, keeping unsettled and active weather
mainly confined to the Western and Central Aleutians to begin the
period. Each wave will move in succession through the Aleutians
and Bering Sea, bringing multiple rounds of potentially storm
force winds and precipitation through the weekend into early next
week.

The upper level ridge retreats to the northwest towards eastern
Siberia and the northern Bering by the end of the weekend. This
leads to a shift in the storm track and will allow for
disturbances to lift out of the North Pacific and into the Gulf,
bringing more active weather across the AKPen and coastal
Southcentral by late this weekend into early next week. Forecast
confidence begins to decrease early next week as the exact timing
and positioning of an upper level trough digging south across the
Interior into the lee of the departing ridge remains uncertain.
Despite the aforementioned uncertainties, both deterministic
models and ensemble means remain consistent in showing a signal
for a pattern shift for next week, trending temperatures colder
across all of Southern Alaska and bringing increased precipitation
chances to both inland and coastal Southcentral.

JH

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light and variable winds will prevail through the TAF
period. With narrow dewpoint depressions near the surface as well
as the light winds, the setup remains conducive for low stratus
and fog formation. With ridging and a strong inversion overhead,
this will be the case over the next few days.

&&