Small Craft Advisory 458, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
504 AM AKDT Sun May 24 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

The primary weather features over the next few days on the holiday
weekend are focused on two unseasonably strong lows in the North
Pacific and the ridge that will be squished between these lows. The
first of these lows has been generally translating eastwards along
the 50N latitude line. This low will start to weaken as it
approaches the western coastline Monday morning. The second of these
strong lows is lifting north towards the Central Aleutians before
crossing the island chain and then tracking north of the Aleutians
towards Bristol Bay through midweek. In between these systems a
relatively strong ridge will build into the Gulf and southern
Southcentral. This ridge will result is warmer and drier weather for
most of Southcentral through early Monday afternoon. The front from
the Bering low will then sweep north across the Gulf bringing
another round of modest precipitation for the Gulf coastal areas.
Easterly flow will keep most of the western Kenai, Anchorage Bowl,
and Mat Valley dry...though a few showers may be able to spill over.

For today... Expect cloud cover to scour out some allowing for
diurnally driven showers initiating over the higher terrain and
temperatures in the lower 50s for most areas. Models are hinting at
a few hundred J/Kg of CAPE building over the northern Copper Basin
and Susitna Valley later this afternoon which may result in an
isolated storm or two. Any convective showers will diminish by
evening with loss of heating.

- PP

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Southwest Alaska may see some light lingering showers today,
before a brief break in precipitation this evening and overnight.
Partly cloudy skies are expected today, allowing for some peeks of
sunshine and slight chance for the development of isolated
thunderstorms along portions of the Kuskokwim Valley and Kuskokwim
Delta via daytime heating.

Out west, a large North Pacific low pushes towards the Bering Sea
through the next couple of days. Its front will reach the Central
Aleutians early this morning, bringing storm force wind gusts
across Adak and Atka, and widespread gale force winds along the
frontal boundary. Winds will likely peak late this morning/early
afternoon before diminishing overnight. The front reaches the
Eastern Aleutians, including Unalaska, and the Pribilof Islands by
this afternoon/evening. Winds will pick up, with storm force
gusts expected to peak late this evening into the overnight hours.
Cold air already in place aloft may allow for a period of
rain/snow or all snow for the Pribilof Islands overnight tonight.
Coupled with gusty winds, areas of blowing snow are possible and
may cause brief periods of reduced visibilities. As the front
progresses eastward, the southern Alaska Peninsula will see winds
gusting as high as 50 to 60 mph. Cold Bay in particular could see
southeasterly gusts to 70 mph Monday morning. Additionally,
widespread rain showers spread across Southwest Alaska Monday
afternoon as the front pushes inland.

The low center pushes over Bristol Bay on Tuesday, bringing
another round of gusty (albeit slightly weaker) winds to the
Aleutian Islands before winding down on Wednesday.

KM

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

The long-range is dominated by mid-week troughing in the Gulf of
Alaska and weak ridging in the Bering Sea. This will bring rounds
of showers and gusty winds to most of Southcentral in the longterm
and mid-week easing of gusty winds in the bays and passes of the
Aleutians.

As an early week front moves eastward, continued barrier jet
winds into the Gulf of Alaska and Prince William Sound coastlines
persist on Wednesday. Additionally, heavy rain is expected to
continued on Kodiak Island and the eastern Kenai Peninsula. Post-
frontal, weak ridging begins to build in the Interior allowing for
showers across the Copper River Basin and Matanuska-Susitna
Valleys with quieter weather across Southwest Alaska, the
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula in addition to Southern Alaska.

-Johnston

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Diurnally
driven showers initiating along the higher terrain are possible
with the potential for showers nearing the terminal at times.
Showers will diminish by evening with loss of heating. Winds are
expecting to remain under 10 kts but could see gusts up to 20 kts
with any passing shower.

&&