Gale Warning 395, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
433 PM AKDT Sat May 23 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

A closed low that is currently south of the Alaska Peninsula will
continue to deepen as it remains south of the Gulf of Alaska by
Sunday morning. This low will jog south, staying west of the
Panhandle through Monday morning. The stout ridge building over
the Bering will push into Southcentral on Monday allowing for
warmer, drier conditions with improving chances for the year's
first 60 degree temperatures. A large North Pacific low will
move into the southern Bering Monday afternoon and bring the next
round of precipitation across Southcentral by Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

Our YK Delta Low is on its last legs this afternoon with a
central minimum pressure of around 1008 mb. Through tonight, low
pressure will rapidly weaken while getting pulled southward by a
separate area of low pressure tracking south of the Gulf of
Alaska. Ultimately, this should result in isolated to scattered
showers diminishing in coverage tonight. Sunday will see a
temporary break in precipitation along with light and variable
winds across Southwest Alaska. The break in precipitation may also
allow for isolated wet thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening
hours on Sunday, thanks to lingering cooler temperatures aloft
from the weakening Low and daytime heating with breaks in cloud
cover.

Of greater significance is a deepening North Pacific Low already
approaching the Western Aleutians. The low and its attendant front
will overspread the Aleutian Chain early Sunday morning with
increasing showers and gusty winds over the next couple of days.
Models continue to show the low peaking in intensity late Sunday
south of Adak, with a minimum central pressure near 971 mb. By
this point its front will have already reached the Alaska
Peninsula. Widespread 20 to 35 mph sustained winds and higher
gusts will encompass the low as far north as the Pribilof Islands
and the entirety of the Aleutian Chain. Gusts ranging from 45 to
60 mph will be common; however, Adak and Atka will likely
experience higher gusts of 50 to 65 mph beginning Sunday morning
while Cold Bay could see gusts as high as 70 mph on Monday. Low
pressure then rapidly weakens late Monday as the low moves into
the coast with increasing showers for Southwest Alaska.

-BL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

The long-range is dominated by mid-week troughing in the Gulf of
Alaska and weak ridging in the Bering Sea. This will bring rounds
of showers and gusty winds to most of Southcentral in the longterm
and mid-week easing of gusty winds in the bays and passes of the
Aleutians.

As an early week front moves eastward, continued barrier jet
winds into the Gulf of Alaska and Prince William Sound coastlines
persist on Wednesday. Additionally, heavy rain is expected to
continued on Kodiak Island and the eastern Kenai Peninsula. Post-
frontal, weak ridging begins to build in the Interior allowing for
showers across the Copper River Basin and Matanuska-Susitna
Valleys with quieter weather across Southwest Alaska, the
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula in addition to Southern Alaska.

-Johnston

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Scattered showers will develop around the terminal by early
this afternoon, developing along the foothills of the Chugach and
Kenai Mountains and drifting slowly to the northwest over parts of
northern Cook Inlet, Anchorage Bowl and southern Mat-Su Valleys.
Thunderstorms are not expected; however, given the colder air
aloft, any heavier rain shower near or over the terminal could
also result in a brief period of soft hail/graupel. Ceilings
today will generally stay VFR, although scattered cloud cover
around 3,500 ft is likely coinciding with the cloud base
producing the scattered showers.

Light west-northwest winds early this afternoon are expected to
shift and become more southerly by late afternoon or early
evening. Occasional gusts of 15 to 20 mph are also possible
through late evening. Winds will diminish overnight into early
Sunday morning. VFR ceilings remain likely, although scattered
clouds around 3,000 ft are possible. Westerly winds off Cook Inlet
will redevelop by noon Sunday along with isolated showers around
the terminal as a weak upper-level wave moves from the Copper
River Basin to the Susitna Valley.

&&