High Wind Watch 3, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
516 AM AKST Sun Feb 1 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A weak northeast to southwest oriented front is currently moving
into the Gulf and will spread light precipitation along the
immediate coast, coastal mountains and Kodiak Island by this
afternoon. It will remain nearly stationary with too weak of
forcing for much inland motion until later in the day on Monday
when a stronger shortwave allows for a slight uptick in
precipitation for areas like Cordova, Girdwood and Whittier. On
Tuesday and into Wednesday a much stronger front will move into
the Gulf, with widespread gale to storm force winds over the
marine areas. Along with the winds, a very warm airmass will move
in as well, leading to moderate and at times heavy rain for the
Gulf coast communities and Kodiak Island. Snow levels look to push
up to around 2500 ft for Wednesday. There are some notable
differences within the model guidance associated with this front
and whether or not a low develops along the front and pushes into
the Gulf. This will mainly affect the marine wind field, but also
the timing of heavy precipitation and to a degree the
thermodynamic profile. For now, lee-side areas look to be mostly
downsloped with a dry northerly wind, but there are many
shortwaves moving over the mountains to counterbalance the drying.
In many ways, the pattern will be similar to that of this past
week, with some light rain and freezing rain spilling just over
the Chugach at times. Temperatures look to remain well above
normal for the coming days, with highs in the mid-30s to 40s again
from Talkeetna south into the Kenai Peninsula. There are no
indications of a chinook-type of storm track, but expect soft,
slowly melting snow and wet roadways to continue for the
foreseeable future. The Copper Basin does look to remain mostly
below freezing, but will be well above normal for temperatures as
well.

-CJ

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: through Wednesday morning)...

High pressure extends over the western Bering Sea, while a
weakening inverted trough lingers over the eastern Bering and
Southwest mainland. Most locations have seen the precipitation dry
out overnight and should remain dry through the day but will
remain cloaked in a low stratus layer. Continued cold offshore
flow will keep localized, light precipitation active for areas
such as the Pribilofs, and Aleutian Islands from Unalaska to Adak
through Sunday afternoon.

The next weather system to enter the region from the North
Pacific has already begun to push high clouds north across the
Alaska Peninsula and the Aleutian Chain between Nikolski and
Unalaska. A North Pacific Low well south of the Aleutians and a
developing trough lifting toward the Alaska Peninsula will phase
by Monday morning, eventually lifting north into Bristol Bay
Tuesday afternoon. This will bring warmer 850 temperatures and
rain for the south side of the Alaska Peninsula and eastern
Bristol Bay through Monday afternoon. For areas north of
Dillingham, western portions of Bristol Bay and islands west of
Unalaska will likely remain all snow. Though temperatures trend
warmer, there does not look to be a sufficient enough warm nose
aloft to increase the chances for freezing rain. West of Nikolski,
temperatures trend colder heading into the week as northerly flow
ahead of the low continues to bring very cold air south from Far
East Russia.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Wednesday through Saturday)...

Unsettled weather across Southern Alaska will continue through
next week, promoting persistent active and low impact weather.
While model spread is large with the handling of individual
storms, there is overall high confidence in the type of weather
expected in this pattern. Generally expect warmer than normal
temperatures and mixed precipitation-types across southern Alaska
as storms track up from the Pacific into the Gulf and
Southcentral. The Gulf coast will see the greatest impacts from
each storm, with periods of moderate precipitation (low elevation
rain and mountain snow) and strong winds. As has been the case in
recent days, light precipitation may occasionally spread inland in
the form of rain or freezing rain. A persistent ridge from Canada
into the Alaska Interior will cause storms to curve westward and
quickly weaken as they move toward Southwest AK and the eastern
Bering Sea. Thus, impacts from precipitation and wind will be much
less over Southwest AK. Quieter weather will persist across the
central to western Bering Sea and Aleutians under prevailing
northerly flow.

-SEB/CL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR and light winds expected. There is some very patchy
fog in Knik Arm that may move over the Terminal at times this
morning.

&&