Brisk Wind Advisory 32, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
442 PM AKST Sun Feb 1 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A weak front has pushed up against the eastern Kenai Peninsula,
Kodiak Island, and into Prince William Sound this afternoon. The
main band of precipitation associated with this feature is
quickly falling apart as it encounters the higher terrain, but a
few weak echoes have made it over the Chugach and Kenai Mountains.
Most of these echoes are likely mid-level clouds and/or virga,
but a few sprinkles / light showers may spill over the mountains
this afternoon. Another shortwave will reinvigorate showers along
the coast tomorrow morning with potential once again for a few
showers to spill over along the Seward Highway from Seward to
Portage to Girdwood. Each of these waves will bring in warmer air,
but valleys will hold onto the colder temperatures a bit longer
allowing for some slick spots to develop along roadways with any
precipitation that spills over into the immediate inland areas.
With the subsequent push of warmer air with each system, snow
levels with rise to about 1000-1500 ft tomorrow and up to around
2500 ft for Wednesday.

A much stronger front will lift across the Gulf Monday night into
Tuesday morning, with models developing a second surface low just
off the southern coast of Kodiak Island by mid-morning Tuesday.
The pressure gradient will rapidly strengthen over the western
Gulf with widespread gales and a swath of storm force winds
developing by Tuesday morning. The swath of storm force winds will
orient itself over the western Gulf, through the Barren Straits
and down Shelikof Strait. The GFS even develops a brief period of
hurricane force winds through the Barren Straits by about 15Z
Tuesday. This east-northeast oriented swath of strong winds is an
ideal direction to see strong winds working across the northern
end of Kodiak Island, with typical spots helping to channel the
winds. As such, have opted to issue a High Wind Watch for the
potential of some higher wind gusts of up to 70 mph for the
northern end of the island for late Monday night through early
Tuesday afternoon. In addition, the warm and moist airmass will
bring periods of moderate to heavy rainfall for Kodiak Island.
Modest rainfall amounts are also expected for immediate Gulf
coastal areas along the eastern Kenai Peninsula. For now, the lee-
side areas continue to look mostly downsloped with a dry
northerly wind, but some spill-over is likely to occur. This
unsettled pattern looks to continue through the remainder of the
week, though details with each wave will continue to be refined.

- PP

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Wednesday)...

High pressure continues to extend across much of the Bering Sea,
with cold northerly flow streaming south leading to light snow
showers over the central Bering/Aleutians this afternoon.
Elsewhere across the region, conditions are dry, with sunny skies
increasingly appearing across much of Southwest Alaska under
upper-level high pressure extending westward across the state from
Canada. Over the North Pacific and extending into the Gulf, there
is a complex of lows that will lift north and west into Southwest
Alaska and the eastern Bering Sea, bringing stronger winds and
some light precipitation through the middle of next week.

The first feature associated with this complex of lows is a front
extending over the western Gulf this afternoon, which will drift
west under upper-level high pressure, bringing the potential for
a light dusting of snow over the Bristol Bay region tonight.
Monday will see largely similar conditions to today, though there
will be a chance for showers of mixed rain and snow along the
Alaska Peninsula. The next, more significant potential for
precipitation will begin Monday night, as a more robust front and
low pressure system lifts toward the Alaska Peninsula. Expect rain
for the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula, while the
precipitation type forecast for the Bering side is a bit more
complex. Generally thinking with northerly winds initially and a
fairly weak warm nose aloft that freezing rain or a transition to
rain is unlikely initially. As a result, expect precipitation to
begin as snow up through the Bristol Bay region Monday night into
Tuesday. However, warmer air will work into the area and some
locations could see a brief period of freezing rain mixing in.

By Tuesday night, winds shift out of the southeast and downslope
warming will lead to a transition to rain as temperatures warm
above freezing for Bristol Bay and precipitation cuts off in the
lee of the Aleutian Range. Precipitation then spreads into the
Kuskokwim Delta, especially along the coast. There, surface
temperatures will remain much colder and the chance for
precipitation to hold on as snow, with some locations seeing a mix
of freezing rain into Wednesday is higher. Overall, given the
snowpack in the region, impacts from accumulations of freezing
rain of a trace to a few hundredths of an inch would be fairly
minimal. Both regions may also experience visibility reductions
from blowing snow, but have some limiting factors. Bristol Bay (on
Tuesday), despite potential for 25 to 35 mph sustained winds will
likely remain too warm for visibility to drop below a mile or so,
while the Kuskokwim Delta coast will have weaker winds, around 20
to 25 mph, which will also prevent more limited visibility
conditions.

For the Bering Sea, the initial front will intensify over the
eastern Bering Sea and clip the Pribilof Islands Monday night into
Tuesday. Temperatures in the low to mid 20s combined with
sustained winds around 25 mph will lead to blowing snow for the
islands as this front moves through, but the limiting factor will
be precipitation intensity. Snow appears light enough that
visibility reduced to half a mile or less will be very brief or
not occur at all. Along the Aleutians west of Nikolski,
temperatures trend colder heading into the week as northerly flow
ahead of the low continues to bring very cold air south from Far
East Russia. This will keep snow showers going, and even
increasing in coverage, across much of the central and western
Aleutians/Bering Sea.

Quesada

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Thursday through
Sunday)...

By Thursday of this week, the expected ridge over Southcentral is
showing signs of breaking down, with the passage of several
shortwave troughs attempting to move through the region as well as
Southwest. With a weak trough established over the Bering,
unsettled weather is expected to persist for Southwest Alaska,
with most likely dry but potentially showery conditions for
Southcentral into the weekend. By Sunday morning, a stronger low
pressure system is showing signs of entering the southern Bering
through the Central Aleutians. This may bring with it warmer
temperatures, rainfall, and stronger winds. The behavior of this
system upon entering the Bering Sea is unclear at this time, but
some solutions are bringing the system into Southwest Alaska by
Monday morning.

-CL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions with light north-northeast winds are expected.
Persistent patchy fog over Knik Arm this afternoon may drift over
the terminal late this evening through early Monday morning.

&&