Gale Warning 6, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
507 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Some of the coldest temperatures and wind chills of the season
  are expected across Southcentral through the later half of this
  week and this weekend. Portions of the Copper River Basin and
  Thompson Pass could see ambient and apparent temperatures of 40
  to 55 below zero. A Cold Weather Advisory in effect Thursday
  through Sunday. Frostbite and hypothermia are likely if exposed
  to these temperatures.

- Frostbite on exposed skin can occur in as little as 5 minutes.
  Prepare for the weather by wearing appropriate clothing, hat,
  and gloves. Protect your pipes and trickle faucets. While
  traveling, use caution. Carry extra supplies and wear your
  winter gear while traveling. Check on yourself and others who
  may be vulnerable to these temperatures.

An upper level trough aligned with the Alaska-Canada border and a
ridge across the Bering Sea is bringing northwesterly flow across
Southcentral this morning. A front moving into Southwest Alaska
is bringing a thin layer of high clouds across parts of Cook Inlet
region. Thicker, high clouds are draped over Kodiak Island.
Strong, gusty winds are continuing to flow through terrain gaps
this morning and on satellite imagery, you can see a prominent
stream of silt blowing out of the Copper River Delta and possible
sea spray through Valdez Arm into Prince William Sound. Other than
light snow falling in McCarthy, many locations are dry.

Persistent northerly flow and cold air advection will continue to
keep gusty winds through coastal and inland mountain gaps through
the rest of the day, with winds likely peaking this evening into
the overnight hours.

Then, dry and cold conditions will settle back in across the
region. Gap winds will begin to gradually diminish Thursday into
Friday with the loss of the upper-level forcing from the trough.
Meanwhile, temperatures will gradually trend downward into the
weekend. We are monitoring the potential for wind chills 40 below
zero or lower developing across the Copper Basin and mountain
passes of the Alaska Range as early as tonight. By Friday, ambient
high temperatures will be in the single digits above and below
zero are expected across the Cook Inlet region (Anchorage, western
Kenai, Mat-Su) and even much of the north Gulf coast (including
Seward, Whittier, Valdez, and Cordova). Low temperatures across
Cook Inlet communities and into the Mat-Su could see low
temperatures in the minus single digits to nearly 30 below.
Meanwhile, the Copper Basin will likely be in the range of 20 to
30 below zero for the highs and lows of 30 to 50 below zero. Any
bit of wind would drop the apparent temperatures lower and this
cold looks to stick around through Monday next week.

Although there is still considerable uncertainty in the models
heading into next week, temperatures look to trend relatively
warmer with a potential return to snowfall for many locations in
Southcentral.

JH/Rux

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Saturday)...

A change-up in the pattern is beginning to unfold this morning as
a switch from high pressure and very dry, cold conditions across
Southwest to a more active and wet/snowy pattern takes shape. The
upper level ridge that has been sitting over the Bering Sea over
the past several days is really beginning to flatten out and
weaken this morning as a series of shortwave troughs begin to ride
over the top of the ridge, giving way to more zonal/westerly flow
aloft. The first of the series of incoming systems is a now
weakening low drifting over the northwest Bering, with a front
extending out from the low out to the far eastern Bering. A band
of light snow following along and ahead of the front is very close
to reaching the Kuskokwim Delta Coast, where a Winter Weather
Advisory for blowing snow and visibility to a half mile or less is
now set to begin at 7 AM AKST this morning. Farther to the
southwest, a compact but quite intense North Pacific low is poised
to move up into the western Aleutians later this morning. A swath
of Storm force sustained winds with Hurricane force gusts is
poised to move across and near Amchitka Island later this morning
as the center crosses from the Pacific into the southern Bering.

As mentioned, an active pattern with a series of rapidly evolving
lows and fronts is expected to continue to ramp up through the
start of the weekend. The intense low now approaching the western
Aleutians will begin to steadily weaken as it arcs northeast
around the weakening upper ridge in place, speeding past the
Pribilofs with a short-lived round of rain showers later this
evening. The low will then dive southeast into the AKPen on Friday
as it continues to weaken, where temperatures on the northern end
of the precipitation shield could remain cold enough for snow. A
quick 1 to 3 inches of snowfall is possible here on Friday,
namely between Pilot Point and Port Heiden.

Farther north, the incoming front will stall out along the
Southwest Coast today as light snow spreads into the Kuskokwim
Delta. The consensus continues to shift towards snow making it a
bit farther inland out to the Bethel area by this evening, and the
forecast has been updated to reflect this continued north and east
trend for the extent of snowfall. Along the coast, as much as 5
inches of new snowfall is possible before snow and the supporting
front begin to fall apart on Friday morning. Areas of blowing snow
with wind gusts up to 30 mph and visibility to a half mile or
less can be expected along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast through late
tonight.

Looking back to the Bering region, two more systems will be
quickly coming up on the horizon at the end of the week as the
increasingly progressive pattern with multiple fast-moving
lows/troughs continues to ramp up. First, another potent low will
lift north along the western fringe of the outlook area, sending a
core of winds up to Storm force into parts of the western Bering
as it lifts steadily north from Friday afternoon into early
Saturday. A much larger and stronger system will begin to affect
the Aleutians late on Saturday as a 950s mb low pushes a strong
front north into the Aleutian Chain. This system could go on to
have far reaching impacts across the outlook area later this
weekend, ranging from wintry mix and/or heavy snow and possible
blizzard conditions across parts of Southwest to high winds across
the Aleutians. Stay tuned as we monitor this potentially
significant storm system over the next few days.

-AS

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through
Wednesday)...

A 956 mb North Pacific low enters the western Bering Sunday,
bringing strong winds, areas of 40 foot waves, and heavy
precipitation for the Aleutian Islands with storm-force winds
currently expected from Attu to Atka, and Gales as far east as
Akutan. Improving model consensus indicates that the strong front
associated with this system will dislodge the high pressure ridge
off to the north and east and lift temperatures up to the normal
range for this time of year. This will set up a strong pressure
gradient and increase chances for a return of gap winds.

A strong triple point low may also develop along the front in the
northern Gulf on Monday into Tuesday, which would bring heavy
precip/snow to much of the Southcentral Coast. A clearer picture
will emerge as consensus improves, but this will likely bring the
next round of significant snow accumulation across Southcentral
through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC... VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with
light northerly winds prevailing until becoming light and
northeasterly in the afternoon.

&&