Extreme Cold Warning 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
433 PM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Some of the coldest temperatures and wind chills of the season
  are expected across Southcentral through the later half of this
  week and this weekend. Portions of the Copper River Basin and
  Thompson Pass could see ambient and apparent temperatures of 40
  to 55 below zero. A Cold Weather Advisory in effect Thursday
  through Sunday. Frostbite and hypothermia are likely if exposed
  to these temperatures.

- Frostbite on exposed skin can occur in as little as 5 minutes.
  Prepare for the weather by wearing appropriate clothing, hat,
  and gloves. Protect your pipes and trickle faucets. While
  traveling, use caution. Carry extra supplies and wear your
  winter gear while traveling. Check on yourself and others who
  may be vulnerable to these temperatures.

Northwesterly flow on the back side of the upper level trough now
pushing into Canada continues across Southcentral. Strong, gusty
winds flowing through coastal terrain gaps are expected to
continue through this evening and tonight before gradually
decreasing in strength through tomorrow morning. By tomorrow
afternoon, a shortwave quickly tracking across the Alaska
Peninsula into the southwestern Gulf will bring a brief shot of
snow and minimal accumulations to the southernmost communities on
Kodiak Island. Otherwise, the rest of Southcentral remains dry
into the weekend.

Focus shifts to the bitterly cold conditions that will settle
back in across the region as temperatures trend downward Friday
into the weekend. We continue to monitor the potential for wind
chills 40 below zero or lower developing across the Copper Basin
and mountain passes of the Alaska Range, likely developing as
early as tonight. By Friday, ambient high temperatures will be in
the single digits above and below zero are expected across the
Cook Inlet region (Anchorage, western Kenai, Mat-Su) and even much
of the north Gulf coast (including Seward, Whittier, Valdez, and
Cordova). Low temperatures across Cook Inlet communities and into
the Mat-Su could see low temperatures in the minus single digits
to nearly 30 below. Meanwhile, the Copper Basin will likely be in
the range of 20 to 30 below zero for the highs and lows of 30 to
50 below zero. Any bit of wind would drop the apparent
temperatures lower and this cold looks to stick around through
Monday next week.

Although there is still considerable uncertainty in the models
heading into next week, temperatures look to trend relatively
warmer with a potential return to snowfall for many locations in
Southcentral.

JH/Rux

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Sunday)...

A weakening front has hung up along the Kuskokwim Coast this
afternoon with light snow and easterly winds. Light snow began to
fall across Toksook Bay and Kipnuk earlier this morning with
visibilities ranging from 1/4 mile to 2 miles due to snow and
blowing snow. A winter weather advisory remains in effect across
the Kuskokwim Coast with additional snow amounts of up to 2 inches
possible through midnight tonight. A compact but potent upper low
has crossed the Western Aleutians and moved into the western
Bering this afternoon. Widespread gales have persisted on the
south side of the low with a swath of southwesterly storms to
overspread Amchitka and the rest of the Rat Islands region through
this evening. This same upper low will quickly drive eastward
tonight with a quick burst of snow and winds for the Pribilof
Islands. The low then dives southward across the Alaska Peninsula
early Friday morning. Light snow may briefly mix with light
freezing rain in and around Port Heiden, though little to no ice
accumulations are expected. Timing of the low moving southeastward
across the Alaska Peninsula should coincide with snow finally
tapering off across the Kuskokwim Delta, with Friday and Saturday
expected to be calmer and drier across Southwest Alaska as a
whole.

A new trough moves across the Aleutian Chain from west to east on
Friday. Rain showers will accompany the trough's passage on
Friday with the trough to eventually dive southeastward on
Saturday, barely clipping the southern AKPEN with lighter
precipitation. As has been advertised in previous discussions, a
pattern change remains in the works for the region as ridging over
the southern Bering is replaced by a deepening upper low and
front Saturday night into Sunday. Deterministic models suggest
that surface pressures will bottom out around 940 mb Sunday
morning to the north of the Western Aleutians, while a large
occluded front sweeps eastward, reaching the Southwest Alaska
Coast by Sunday night. Precipitation chances associated with the
low and front will expand across the Bering and Aleutians and
finally into Southwest Alaska through early next week.
Southwesterly flow and warmer temperatures behind the front will
likely keep precipitation as mostly rain across the Aleutians and
southern Bering. Further east, however, precipitation may remain
all snow, as Southwest Alaska holds onto cooler temperatures.
Regardless, conditions and model trends will be monitored closely
for a potential wintry mix, heavy snow, and or blizzard potential
by the end of the weekend into early next week.

-BL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

A 950 mb low moves across the Bering Sea on Monday, bringing
strong winds, high seas, and moderate to heavy precipitation to
the Aleutians and Southwest Alaska. Current deterministic model
runs are in good agreement that a strong triple point low will
develop along its front in the northern Gulf on Monday and
Tuesday. While downsloping and other local effects may limit
precipitation in certain areas, expect generally widespread
snowfall for southern Alaska lasting into Wednesday as shortwaves
reinforce the stout low.

This system looks strong enough to dislodge the high pressure and
flip the weather pattern that kept the region cold and dry for
December. By Wednesday and Thursday, multiple lows look to
continue tracking into the Bering and Gulf of Alaska, keeping
chances for precipitation high and increasing temperatures to near
normal.

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC... VFR conditions and light north winds will persist.

&&