Gale Warning 50, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
428 PM AKST Fri Jan 9 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) A Gulf of Alaska low will bring snow, rain and wind to
Southcentral Alaska through Sunday.

2) Many watches and warnings are in effect today through Sunday
across Southcentral Alaska.

A North Pacific low moves into the Gulf of Alaska this weekend
bringing snow, wind and rain to most of Southcentral. Though the
bulk of the precipitation has been delayed, most of Southcentral
could accumulate 4 to 8 inches by Sunday with the heaviest falling
Saturday afternoon and evening. Gusty winds could accompany the
snow falling on the Anchorage Hillside resulting in periods of
blowing snow causing a reduction in visibility. The greatest
chance for higher snowfall amounts from Anchorage northward to
Talkeetna are expected to be measured north of Willow. Though wind
gusts Saturday morning in the Mat-Su Valleys range from 35 to 45
mph, this will be short-lived.

As the low's front moves into Prince William Sound Saturday and
the many weeks of cold air remains over Southcentral, coastal
areas could experience a mix of rain and snow. However, surfaces
will remain below 32 degrees resulting in any rain that falls to
make travel treacherous.

-DJ/CJ

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Southwest Alaska remains active as upper lows influence the area.
The large low in the North Pacific has shifted eastward, allowing
winds to decrease in the Central Aleutians. Blowing snow is still
possible in the Adak region, but not to blizzard levels. The
Eastern Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula can still expect gale
force gap winds through Monday. Snow showers across the Aleutians
will continue due to the colder air increasing instability over
the warmer waters.

Meanwhile, the Southwest Mainland still has that Arctic trough
hanging over it, allowing for very cold temperatures 10 to 30
degrees below zero. This cold air mass is not expected to move
anytime soon and will linger through the forecast period. Gusty
winds in the Kuskokwim Delta and the Western Capes are still
expected today, so wind chills could reach 40 to 60 below zero.the
rest of Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley will have
lower winds but still could have wind chills of 40 to 50 below
zero. Another effect of the winds in the Kuskokwim Delta is
blowing snow, which could reduce visibilities significantly.
Therefore, the Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until
tomorrow (Friday) morning. Over the weekend, these winds are
expected to decrease, so extremely cold wind chills and blowing
snow should subside.

By Sunday, an upper low and more cold air advection will dip into
the Central Aleutians, causing another round of gusty gale force
winds and more intense snow showers. Blowing snow is possible, but
not to blizzard levels. On Monday, the upper level features drop
further into the North Pacific and higher pressure moves into the
Bering from the northwest. This will allow wind speeds to drop and
snow showers to diminish due to warm air advection.

-JAR

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

Tuesday afternoon a strong low lifts into the Gulf of Alaska.
There is a reasonable degree of uncertainty as to the exact
strength and track, but what looks likely is that this low will
move into Prince William Sound. This will keep Southcentral in
the snow with only Cordova in a position to see a potential switch
from snow to rain. This system will have the potential to produce
strong winds and heavy snowfall for coastal regions Tuesday and
Wednesday. A second system will quickly follow on Tuesday through
the western Gulf, with prolonged precipitation for Kodiak and the
northern Gulf coast lasting to Friday and beyond.

Over the Bering Sea, a weakening low descends south through the
Central Bering and phases with a North Pacific low moving north
into the southern Bering Friday morning. Large model variation
places this low somewhere between Adak/Atka to the AKPen/Bristol
Bay. Widespread gales with light to moderate precipitation will
likely remain as snow to the west of this system, with chances for
rain to briefly mix with snow to the east of this system.

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through most of this evening.
MVFR conditions could move in as early as midnight as a front
moves across the Gulf and light snow moves in from the from the
southeast. More likely is for MVFR to IFR conditions to develop
Saturday afternoon/evening when a second, and heavier, snow band
sets up over the area.

There is potential late tonight into Saturday morning for low-
level windshear as the front moves overhead with surface winds
remaining out of the north or northeast and winds 2000 feet above
the surface out of the southeast.

&&