Brisk Wind Advisory 9, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
553 AM AKST Fri Jan 9 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) A Gulf of Alaska low and an elongated surface trough will
bring snow, rain and wind to Southcentral today through Sunday.

2) Blizzard conditions on Kodiak Island are expected from today
through 6pm Friday evening.

3) Many watches and warnings are in effect today through Sunday
across Southcentral Alaska.

Overshadowed by a Bering Sea low, a broad north Pacific trough
with multiple embedded shortwaves that will lift north into the
Gulf this evening and into the remainder of Southcentral over the
weekend. This will bring snow to the entire region. It is
important to note that as the low moves across the Interior, a
deformation zone will form from the Kenai Peninsula northward to
the Mat-Su Valley that would lead to localized increased snowfall
amounts. Forecasting this area of localized snowfall accumulation
is difficult given its mesoscale forces at play. However, current
thinking is that it will setup on Saturday after the accumulating
snow has already begun to fall. Many watches and warning across
Southcentral have been issued to coincide with the overall snow
this weekend.

Kodiak Island and the City of Kodiak will experience blizzard
conditions late this evening through late Friday evening as the
Gulf of Alaska low with its associate front moves toward Prince
William Sound. There has been a delay in the onset of these snowy
and windy conditions and a decrease in snow amounts for the City
of Kodiak from the last forecast package. The changes were the
overall slowness in arrival time of the precipitation and a longer
period of rain will mix into the snow overnight Friday.

By Friday afternoon, widespread snow is expected for the Prince
William Sound communities. Forecast confidence is highest for the
eastern Sound and southern Copper Basin receiving the bulk of the
precipitation from the warm front.

-DJ/CJ

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Bitterly cold air temperatures and wind chills continue across
Southwest Alaska.

The large low south of the Aleutians is continuing to produce snow
showers, gusty winds, and cold temperatures across the Bering Sea
and Aleutian Chain. Blizzard or near blizzard conditions are
expected to continue over the Central Aleutians through this
morning, gradually diminishing through this afternoon.
Additionally, periods of blowing snow is possible across the
Eastern Aleutians, including Unalaska today, producing reduced
visibilities at times.

An upper level trough digging southward along the Southwest
Alaska coast is producing a corridor of gusty winds for portions
of the Southwest, streaming southwestward out of the Kuskokwim
Delta coast and the Bristol Bay region and across the eastern
Bering. Areas of blowing/drifting snow is expected which may
result in periods of reduced visibilities. The Winter Weather
Advisory for blowing snow remains in effect through late tonight.
Winds should begin to diminish through Saturday morning and the
blowing snow conditions are expected to subside.

Areas of extreme freezing spray expected to continue along the
ice edge through early Saturday morning.

By the weekend, cold temperatures and northerly winds will remain
over almost the entirety of Southwest Alaska, Bering Sea, and
Aleutian Chain.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

The active weather pattern is expected to continue for the first
half of next week. The upper level low will still be over the
Interior and southwest Alaska on Sunday, keeping Southwest Alaska
entrenched in the cold with part of Southcentral still being in
lingering snow on the tail end of the weekend system. The upper
level trough will not move a lot through Monday, but what does
change on Tuesday is that the trough will edge westward as a
strong low moves into the Gulf of Alaska from the south. There is
a reasonable degree of uncertainty as to the exact strength and
track, but what looks likely is that this low will end up moving
into Prince William Sound or to the east of it. This will keep
Southcentral in the snow with only Cordova in a position to see
potential for a switch to rain from the snow. This system has the
potential to produce strong winds and heavy snowfall for coastal
regions including the coastal mountains Tuesday and Wednesday.

High surface pressure will remain centered over the Western Bering
Sea through the period. With the upper level trough remaining
over Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea, this will keep Southwest
Alaska as well as the Bering Sea/Aleutians/AK Peninsula with cold
temperatures and stiff northerly winds. While most of the
precipitation will remain east of the Alaska/Aleutian Ranges, the
Alaska Peninsula and eastern Aleutians have the potential for
periods of heavy snow showers that develop off the ice edge and
stream into those areas.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through most of today. MVFR
conditions could move in as early as this evening as a front moves
across the Gulf and snow moves in from the from the east and
southeast. More likely is for MVFR conditions to develop overnight
tonight into Saturday morning. North to northeast winds will
remain around 10 kts or a little greater today which could cause
some instances of drifting snow. Towards then end of the TAF
period Saturday morning, depending on how pressure gradients
orient, there is the chance for southeast winds out of Turnagain
Arm to clip the terminal before turning southerly to southwesterly
late morning Saturday. There is also potential late tonight into
Saturday morning for low-level windshear as the front moves
overhead with surface winds remaining out of the north or
northeast and winds 2000 feet above the surface out of the
southeast.

&&