Gale Warning 43, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
454 PM AKST Thu Jan 8 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) A Gulf of Alaska low and an elongated surface trough will
bring snow, rain and wind to Southcentral today through Sunday.

2) Blizzard conditions on Kodiak Island are expected from late
this evening through 6pm Friday evening.

3) Many watches and warnings are in effect today through Sunday
across Southcentral Alaska.

Overshadowed by a Bering Sea low, a broad north Pacific trough
with multiple embedded shortwaves that will lift north into the
Gulf this evening and into the remainder of Southcentral over the
weekend. This will bring snow to the entire region. It is
important to note that as the low moves across the Interior, a
deformation zone will form from the Kenai Peninsula northward to
the Mat-Su Valley that would lead to localized increased snowfall
amounts. Forecasting this area of localized snowfall accumulation
is difficult given the mesoscale forces at play. However, current
thinking is that it will setup on Saturday after the accumulating
snow has already begun to fall. Many watches and warning across
Southcentral have been issued to coincide with the overall snow
this weekend.

Kodiak Island and the City of Kodiak will experience blizzard
conditions late this evening through late Friday evening as the
Gulf of Alaska low with its associate front moves toward Prince
William Sound. There has been a delay in the onset of these snowy
and windy conditions and a decrease in snow amounts for the City
of Kodiak from the last forecast package. The changes were the
overall slowness in arrival time of the precipitation and a longer
period of rain will mix into the snow overnight Friday.

By Friday afternoon, widespread snow is expected for the Prince
William Sound communities. Forecast confidence is highest for the
eastern Sound and southern Copper Basin receiving the bulk of the
precipitation from the warm front.

-DJ/CJ

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

...Key Messages and Active Advisories and Warnings...

* Bitterly cold air temperatures and wind chills continue across
  Southwest Alaska. Extreme Cold Warnings remains in effect for
  Southwest Alaska.

* A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Kuskokwim
  Delta, Western Capes, Northern Bristol Bay coast, and inland
  Bristol Bay through Saturday morning.

* A Blizzard Warning remains in effect for Adak and Atka for this
  afternoon through Friday afternoon.

* A Special Weather Statement remains in effect for Nikolski,
  Unalaska, and Akutan for rain changing to snow showers tonight
  into Friday. Snow showers and gusty winds could lead to periods
  of reduced visibilities.

* Arctic air and gusty winds will bring potential for extreme
  freezing spray along the ice edge.

Discussion:

The overall synoptic setup has not significantly changed since
yesterday. A ~970 mb low spinning south of the Aleutians with a
warm front draped across the Central Aleutians is spreading
stratiform precipitation from Adak to Cold Bay in the form of rain
and snow, dependent on location relative to the front. Cold air
is surging southward across Adak and Atka, transitioning rain to
snow and as winds pick up, blizzard or near blizzard conditions
are expected, with 3 to 5 inches of snowfall possible. The warm
conveyor belt can be seen in action on IR satellite as clouds
stream poleward just ahead of the cold front attached to the
system in the North Pacific. With an arctic high to the north and
lower pressure to the south from the surface low, pressure
gradient induced winds are being generated across the Bering and
Aleutians, giving some locations blizzard conditions and others
blowing snow concerns. An upper level trough coincidentally is
digging southward along the Southwest Alaska coast, which has
helped to induce a corridor of gusty winds for portions of the
Southwest that is streaming southwestward out of the Kuskokwim
Delta coast and the Bristol Bay region and across the eastern
Bering. This setup for coastal Southwest Alaska and areas just
inland has prompted the issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory for
blowing snow from 40 mph wind gusts through Saturday morning. By
Saturday morning, winds should begin to decrease in intensity with
the upper level trough passage and the surface low south of the
Aleutians moving farther away from the region, which in turn will
weaken the surface pressure gradient between the low and the
arctic high to the north. By the weekend, cold temperatures and
northerly winds will remain over almost the entirety of Southwest
Alaska, Bering Sea, and Aleutian Chain.

-AM/KM

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

The active weather pattern is expected to continue for the first
half of next week. The upper level low will still be over the
Interior and southwest Alaska on Sunday, keeping Southwest Alaska
entrenched in the cold with part of Southcentral still being in
lingering snow on the tail end of the weekend system. The upper
level trough will not move a lot through Monday, but what does
change on Tuesday is that the trough will edge westward as a
strong low moves into the Gulf of Alaska from the south. There is
a reasonable degree of uncertainty as to the exact strength and
track, but what looks likely is that this low will end up moving
into Prince William Sound or to the east of it. This will keep
Southcentral in the snow with only Cordova in a position to see
potential for a switch to rain from the snow. This system has the
potential to produce strong winds and heavy snowfall for coastal
regions including the coastal mountains Tuesday and Wednesday.

High surface pressure will remain centered over the Western Bering
Sea through the period. With the upper level trough remaining
over Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea, this will keep Southwest
Alaska as well as the Bering Sea/Aleutians/AK Peninsula with cold
temperatures and stiff northerly winds. While most of the
precipitation will remain east of the Alaska/Aleutian Ranges, the
Alaska Peninsula and eastern Aleutians have the potential for
periods of heavy snow showers that develop off the ice edge and
stream into those areas.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Patchy areas of low stratus and fog have persisted across
parts of Anchorage this afternoon. Occasional periods of IFR
ceilings/visibility will remain possible at the terminal this
evening with transient fog or stratus, but increasing north winds
should steadily decrease this threat with time. Northerly winds
will pick up to 10 kts or a little greater by late tonight and
Friday morning. These elevated northerly winds could cause some
instances of drifting snow tonight and Friday morning. Predominant
ceilings will begin to lower some Friday afternoon ahead of
another potential snowfall event arriving later on Friday evening.

&&