Gale Warning 42, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
548 AM AKST Thu Jan 8 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The broad upper trough that brought the widespread snowfall and
cold temperatures will continue to shear apart today and gradually
retreat north and west over the coming days. Our focus is now on a
broad north Pacific trough with multiple embedded shortwaves that
will lift north into the Gulf this evening and into the remainder
of Southcentral over the weekend. The evolution of this system is
very complex and remains poorly resolved in model guidance. The
main complexity is how the incoming warm front, inverted surface
trough and elongated surface low will interact with the deep
Arctic airmass that will get pushed over Southwest Alaska. The
Blizzard Warning remains in effect for Kodiak Island but there is
still high levels of uncertainty for snow amounts, with some
recent model guidance now showing the front well to the east of
the island. This is an outlier, but a low probability possibility
nonetheless.

The general timeline of events for this system will be strong
winds and snow for Kodiak starting this evening and continuing as
late as Saturday morning. Rain may mix in at times. This will
depend on the east-west position of the surface low as it
develops and moves north of the Island. By Friday afternoon,
widespread snow is expected for the Prince William Sound
communities, which will likely spread inland to most of, if not
all of Southcentral overnight. This is where the forecast becomes
most uncertain, as this is where there are significant differences
in the positioning of the Arctic trough over Southwest Alaska. A
north-south oriented band of moderate to heavy snow is expected to
develop on the eastern periphery of the trough, anywhere from the
western Susitna Valley, to right over the Cook Inlet areas that
were most recently impacted by heavy snow. Some solutions have
this over the Copper Basin, but this is a far eastern outlier.
Wherever this band sets up is likely to get 6-12+ inches of snow.

Forecast confidence is highest for the eastern Sound and southern
Copper Basin, where somewhat regardless of the upper level feature
to the west, will receive the bulk of the precipitation from the
warm front. A Blizzard Warning is now in effect for Thompson Pass,
a Winter Storm Warning is in effect for Ernestine and 46 mile, and
Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for McCarthy, Chitina, and
Kenny Lake. Stay tuned to the forecast for more updates as this
system progresses north.

-CJ

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

* Bitterly cold air temperatures and wind chills continue across
  Southwest Alaska. Extreme Cold Warnings remains in effect for
  Southwest Alaska.

* A Blizzard Warning remains in effect for the Pribilofs through
  noon today. Light snow and gusty winds may persist through this
  afternoon.

* A Winter Weather Advisory continues for the southern Alaska
  Peninsula, primarily for False Pass, King Cove, and Sand Point.
  Snow and blowing snow expected through this afternoon.

* A Blizzard Warning is in effect for Adak and Atka for this
  afternoon through Friday afternoon.

* A Special Weather Statement is out for Nikolski, Unalaska, and
  Akutan for rain changing to snow showers tonight into Friday.
  Snow showers and gusty winds could lead to periods of reduced
  visibilities.

* Arctic air and gusty winds will bring potential for extreme
  freezing spray along the ice edge.

Temperatures and wind chills 25 to 45 below zero were observed
across Southwest Alaska overnight. The Extreme Cold Warning
remains in effect through Saturday evening, though there is
potential for frigid temperatures and wind chills to linger for
longer. Blowing snow will be likely along the Kuskokwim Delta and
Kuskokwim and Bristol Bay coasts beginning Friday as northeasterly
winds increase.

Snow and blowing snow is expected to continue across the southern
Alaska Peninsula through this morning, with the primary area set
to see snow and blowing snow being King Cove and False Pass. Snow
is expected to begin to taper off this afternoon, though light
snow and gusty winds may continue to reduce visibilities at times
through tonight.

Further west, cold air surges south over Adak and Atka, along with
a steady core of precipitation. As rain transitions to snow and
winds pick up, blizzard or near-blizzard conditions are expected,
with 3 to 5 inches of snowfall possible.

By the weekend, cold temperatures and gusty northerly winds will
remain over almost the entirety of Southwest Alaska, Bering Sea,
and Aleutian Chain.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

A very active weather pattern is likely to continue through the
weekend and into early next week. An upper level low over
southwest Alaska will help surface lows in the Gulf of Alaska
spread precipitation (mostly in the form of snow) over
Southcentral Saturday and Sunday. High amplitude ridging over the
Bering Sea will push strong northerly winds through the Aleutians
and Alaska Peninsula during this time. Bands of snow showers are
possible for the Aleutian Chain as northerly flow picks up
moisture from the southern Bering Sea.

Multiple North Pacific lows look to track into the Gulf of Alaska
Monday and Tuesday bring strong winds and moderate to heavy
precipitation to the southern coastline. Mountainous areas will
receive the highest precipitation amounts with these systems, but
early analysis of the Tuesday night storm shows potential for
another widespread snow event for more interior locations of
Southcentral as well.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Satellite imagery this morning reveals a 200 to 500 foot
low stratus deck in and around the terminal. For this morning,
ceilings and visibility will bounce around between VFR to LIFR at
times due to low stratus and mist/fog meandering around the
terminal. This should clear out fully later this morning as
dewpoint depressions widen. VFR conditions will persist after this
morning. Light northerly winds will persist through today.
Northerly winds pick up to 10 kts or a little greater by tonight
and Saturday morning. These elevated northerly winds could cause
some instances of drifting snow tonight and Saturday morning.

&&

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