Gale Warning 33, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
510 PM AKST Tue Jan 6 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Despite snow beginning to trend down across portions of
Southcentral, active weather continues with several weather
products ongoing. Winter storm warnings and advisories from the
MatSu down into Anchorage, as well as the southwest and northwest
Kenai Peninsula, the Eastern Turnagain Arm, Kachemak Bay and
Whittier, remain in effect through early Wednesday. Some of these
may need to be expired sooner than later, depending on radar
trends and observations. As flow becomes more westerly into
tonight, upslope flow against the Chugach may allow for snow to
linger for a longer period of time on the Eagle River and
Anchorage Hillsides. The extremely cold air aloft will also
continue to support very high snow ratios, resulting in continued
snow despite very little moisture.

Temperatures will continue to cool over the next couple of days,
beginning tonight, as low pressure departs the region to the
southeast. Overnight lows across Southcentral will dip below zero
tonight, and back into the minus teens and 20s Wednesday night.
Cold weather advisories will likely be needed by Wednesday
night and Thursday morning as wind chills will are expected to
approach -30 degrees for many Southcentral locations, including
the Western Kenai Peninsula, Turnagain Pass, Whittier, the Susitna
Valley and much for the Copper River Basin.

As mentioned in the morning discussion, this cold and clear
period will be short lived as a front and inverted trough from a
strong north Pacific low moves into the coast Thursday afternoon.
Kodiak and the Sound will be the first to get another round of
snow and wind, with light snow likely spilling over into the
greater Cook Inlet region and Mat-Su Valleys. Moving into the
weekend the forecast begins to muddy based upon if and where lows
develop along the front, but the pattern remains very active. Stay
tuned.

BL

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This evening through Thursday)...

Key Messages:

- Bitterly cold air temperatures and wind chills return for
  Southwest Alaska, with this event likely to be colder and more
  widespread than previous cold air outbreaks. A Cold Weather
  Advisory is in effect from Wednesday through Friday.

- A storm moving into the Central Aleutians could bring blizzard
  conditions to the Pribilof Islands and Southern Alaska Peninsula
  on Wednesday, followed by potential blizzard conditions along
  the Aleutian Chain late Thursday after the storm departs. A
  Winter Storm Watch for blizzard conditions is in effect from
  Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening.

- Arctic air and gusty winds will bring the potential for extreme
  freezing spray along the sea ice edge.

The upper-level arctic trough is now firmly entrenched over the
interior of western Alaska. This has brought a sudden return to
bitterly cold temperatures and wind chill from the Kuskokwim Delta
south to the Alaska Peninsula. This airmass will remain in place
through Friday with temperatures continuing to drop over the next
48 hours. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect from Wednesday
night through late Friday afternoon, though there is potential for
frigid temperatures and wind chills to linger for longer.
Additionally, we're monitoring the potential for wind chills to
drop below -55, which would meet the threshold for an upgrade from
advisory to warning.

Otherwise, the other thing to watch for will be the phasing of 2
lows that move towards the Central Aleutians from late tonight
through tomorrow. Models continue to struggle with the
interaction of these two features, which has led to a major
forecast shift since yesterday's forecast and changes to the
northern extent of precipitation with each model run.

That said, with the low now tracking several hundred miles
further east, there will be greater impacts for much of the
Aleutian Islands, Pribilof Islands, Alaska Peninsula, and
Southwest Alaska. Temperatures will be too warm in the Central and
Eastern Aleutians for blowing snow, but if any snow falls in the
Pribilof Islands or Alaska Peninsula, blizzard conditions are
possible. Right now, these locations are right at the edge of the
frontal precipitation, so confidence is low regarding whether
blizzard conditions will materialize. By late Thursday, as the low
is set to dive southwards back in the North Pacific, continued
strong winds in combination with snow showers could also cause
blizzard conditions along the Aleutian Islands from west to east
through Friday and, eventually, the Alaska Peninsula. Stay tuned.

-KC/TM

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

No major changes to the previous discussion:

An Arctic air mass will be in place across much of the southern
Mainland at the start of the period on Friday, with a deep upper
level low initially centered over Southcentral. A narrow ridge
will likely be in place across parts of the Bering Sea, extending
from the North Pacific into parts of Northeast Russia and
Kamchatka. A frontal system associated with a low moving south of
Atka will bring strong easterly winds and rain/snow south of the
Bering ridge along much of the Aleutian Chain on Thursday,
changing back to snow from west to east along the Chain through
Friday as the front slides back to south and colder air drives
south across the Bering. Strong northeast surface winds will
likely be ongoing along the Southwest Coast and out across much of
the Bering Sea as a strong north-south pressure gradient combines
with strong westerly cold advection of Arctic air from Southwest.
This will likely support areas of heavy freezing spray across the
eastern Bering Sea, especially within close proximity to the sea
ice edge until winds begin to weaken and turn more northerly on
Friday.

A very active pattern is likely to continue through the weekend as
the upper level pattern amplifies with time. The upper low/trough
over Southcentral will retrograde west through the weekend,
becoming part of a deepening longwave trough setting up across the
Bering and Aleutians. At the same time, a longwave ridge will
develop downstream of the main upper trough, building steadily
into the eastern Gulf and Southeast through Sunday. This will put
Southcentral squarely within the prevailing storm track between
the very cold Arctic air building over northern/western Alaska and
the much warmer Pacific air and high pressure building into the
Gulf and Southeast. This could extend a period of major volatility
in temperatures and precipitation already getting started this
week for part of Southcentral and along the western Alaska Range
in Southwest Alaska into the weekend. Multiple large swings
between periods of cold temperatures and drier conditions and
warmer temperatures with light to moderate snow will be possible
as a series of lows move north into the region within a corridor
of southerly flow setting up between the ridge to the southeast
and trough to the northwest.

Meanwhile, most of Southwest will stay colder and drier through
the weekend as the Arctic air mass remains entrenched in place.
Much of the Aleutian Chain could see periods of ocean-effect snow
showers through Monday as cold air streaming south modifies and
picks up moisture from the warmer ocean surface.

-AS/TM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...IFR to LIFR conditions in moderate snow this afternoon
should steadily improve this evening into tonight as snow ends and
as ceilings rise to MVFR levels. There is some uncertainty
regarding how quickly ceilings will continue to rise through
Wednesday morning, but cold, dry air filtering back in should
favor a return to VFR conditions. Gusty north winds still look
possible for this evening, and these winds could lead to areas of
blowing and drifting snow this evening into tonight.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
919 PM AKST Tue Jan 6 2026

AKZ702-081500-
Anchorage Hillside / Eagle River-
Including the cities of Anchorage Hillside, Upper Eagle River,
and Indian
919 PM AKST Tue Jan 6 2026

...The Chugach National Forest Avalanche Information Center in
Girdwood has issued a SPECIAL AVALANCHE STATEMENT...

* WHAT...Dangerous avalanche conditions exist in the backcountry.
  Human triggered avalanches are likely.

* WHERE...For Southwestern Chugach State Park from South Fork of
  Eagle River to Indian Creek including Upper Rabbit Creek, Glen
  Alps Recreation Area, and the backcountry terrain near Arctic
  Valley. This bulletin does not apply to operating ski areas.

* WHEN...In effect from Wednesday 6:00 am to Thursday 6:00 am AKST.

* IMPACTS... Large human-triggered avalanches are likely. Despite
  the calmer weather, the snowpack is very unstable and dangerous
  avalanches can be easily triggered by people. It is likely
  avalanches may be triggered remotely from flat terrain below
  steeper slopes.

* PRECAUTIONARY / PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If deciding to recreate in
  the backcountry, choose terrain that is flat or less than 30
  degrees in steepness, with nothing steeper above you. Cautious
  route-finding and conservative decision-making skills will be
  necessary to identify and avoid slopes that could avalanche.

Similar avalanche danger may exist at locations outside the coverage
area of this or any avalanche center.

For more information visit www.ChugachAvalanche.org.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1136 PM AKST Tue Jan 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     Snow             Palmer                  61.61N 149.18W
01/06/2026  M5.0 Inch        Matanuska-Susitna  AK   Trained Spotter

&&

JAR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1140 PM AKST Tue Jan 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     Snow             Anchorage (Campbell Par 61.16N 149.82W
01/06/2026  M17.0 Inch       Anchorage          AK   Public

0728 PM     Snow             Chugiak                 61.42N 149.49W
01/06/2026  M14.0 Inch       Anchorage          AK   Public

            Storm total snow between 12:00 AM 1/5/26 to
            3:30 PM 1/6/26.

0746 PM     Snow             Eagle River             61.32N 149.54W
01/06/2026  M10.5 Inch       Anchorage          AK   Public

            Storm total snow of 10.5 inches since Monday
            afternoon.

0816 PM     Snow             Anchorage (Bayshore/Kla 61.13N 149.93W
01/06/2026  M17.0 Inch       Anchorage          AK   Public

1000 PM     Snow             Anchorage (U-MED Distri 61.19N 149.79W
01/06/2026  M15.0 Inch       Anchorage          AK   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1147 PM AKST Tue Jan 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 AM     Snow             Clam Gulch              60.18N 151.42W
01/06/2026  M2.8 Inch        Kenai Peninsula    AK   Public

0507 PM     Snow             Valdez                  61.11N 146.22W
01/06/2026  M8.0 Inch        Chugach            AK   Trained Spotter

            6 inches of snow since last report the
            morning of 1/6/26. 23F, calm winds, light
            snowfall with some breaks in cloud cover.

0600 PM     Snow             Anchorage (Sand Lake)   61.16N 149.95W
01/06/2026  M17.0 Inch       Anchorage          AK   Public

            Surface level, untouched snow.

0700 PM     Snow             Wasilla                 61.55N 149.41W
01/06/2026  M11.5 Inch       Matanuska-Susitna  AK   Public

&&