Gale Warning 31, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
549 AM AKST Tue Jan 6 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A very cold upper level trough and its attendant surface low will
move east across Southcentral through tomorrow morning. Various
advisories and warnings are out of the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage
Muni, and the Mat-Su Valleys. Please read those for more
information on what to expect for your area. The main change to
the forecast was to once again increase snowfall amounts across
the board for three reasons. The first and foremost is the
introduction of very high snow ratios. Over the next 12 hours a
very cold airmass will begin to push through all the gaps of the
Alaska and Aleutian Mountain Ranges. This will provide additional
lift to squeeze out any and all remaining moisture provided by the
surface low that will sit in the Sound for the next 24 hours or
so. Additionally, the negative tilt of the trough will provide
ample lift as it digs south. Lastly, the cold air advection will
create a deep dendritic growth layer from sea level to
approximately 15kft, amplifying snow ratios to be near 25:1 and
30:1. The combination of these factors should allow for some stout
accumulation despite not all that impressive amounts of QPF.
Overnight snowfall rates have been around 0.7 inches per hour, and
should kick up as the cold air starts to funnel in.

Another change to the forecast was to upgrade the Winter Weather
Advisory for Whittier to a Blizzard Warning. Later this afternoon
the surface low will pull into the Sound, rapidly transitioning
the winds from calm to westerly, with gusts up to 60 mph. Recent
snow and snow falling into the area will combine with the winds
to create blizzard conditions.

The other side to this storm, as has been eluded to, will be the
very cold air coming into the region. There is a reasonable chance
that morning lows on Thursday will be at or even colder than those
observed on Sunday, assuming no fog or stratus is able to develop.
This means low temperatures of 20 to 30 below for most areas with
equivalent wind chills for Whittier and Seward. Kodiak will also
be well below normal with sub-zero wind chills.

This cold and clear period will be short lived as a front and
inverted trough from a strong north Pacific low moves into the
coast Thursday afternoon. Kodiak and the Sound will be the first
to get another round of snow and wind, with light snow likely
spilling over into the greater Cook Inlet region and Mat-Su
Valleys. Moving into the weekend the forecast begins to muddy
based upon if and where lows develop along the front, but the
pattern remains very active. Stay tuned.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday)...

Key Messages:

- Bitterly cold air temperatures and wind chills return for
  Southwest Alaska, with this event likely to be colder and more
  widespread than previous cold air outbreaks. A Cold Weather
  Advisory is in effect from Wednesday through Friday.

- A storm moving into the Central Aleutians could bring blizzard
  conditions to the Pribilof Islands and Southern Alaska Peninsula
  on Wednesday, followed by potential blizzard conditions along
  the Aleutian Chain late Thursday after the storm departs.

- Arctic air and gusty winds will bring the potential for extreme
  freezing spray along the sea ice edge.

Conditions are much improved from yesterday as the previous storm
exits to the east. The next round of cold air is already moving
into the region and will gradually spread across the entirety of
Southwest Alaska through the end of the week. A Cold Weather
Advisory is in effect from Wednesday night through late Friday
afternoon, though there is potential for frigid temperatures and
wind chills to linger for longer. Additionally, we're monitoring
the potential for wind chills to drop below -55, which would meet
the threshold for an upgrade from advisory to warning.

Otherwise, the other thing to watch for will be the phasing of 2
lows that move towards the Central Aleutians from late tonight
through tomorrow. Models are struggling with the interaction of
these two features, which has led to a major forecast shift since
yesterday's forecast. With the low now tracking several hundred
miles further east, there will be greater impacts for much of the
Aleutian Islands, Pribilof Islands, Alaska Peninsula, and
Southwest Alaska. Temperatures will be too warm in the Central and
Eastern Aleutians for blowing snow, but if any snow falls in the
Pribilof Islands or Alaska Peninsula, blizzard conditions are
possible. Right now, these locations are right at the edge of the
frontal precipitation, so confidence is low regarding whether
blizzard conditions will materialize. By late Thursday, as the low
is set to dive southwards back in the North Pacific, continued
strong winds in combination with snow showers could also cause
blizzard conditions along the Aleutian Islands and Alaska
Peninsula. Stay tuned.

-KC

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

An Arctic air mass will be in place across much of the southern
Mainland at the start of the period on Thursday, with a deep upper
level low initially centered over Southcentral. A narrow ridge
will likely be in place across parts of the Bering Sea, extending
from the North Pacific into parts of Northeast Russia and
Kamchatka. A frontal system associated with a low moving south of
the Aleutians will bring strong easterly winds and rain/snow south
of the Bering ridge along much of the Aleutian Chain on Thursday.
Strong northeast surface winds will likely be ongoing along the
Southwest Coast and out across much of the Bering Sea as a strong
north-south pressure gradient combines with strong westerly cold
advection of Arctic air from Southwest. This will likely support
areas of heavy freezing spray across the eastern Bering Sea,
especially within close proximity to the sea ice edge until winds
begin to weaken and turn more northerly on Friday.

A very active pattern is likely to continue through the weekend as
the upper level pattern amplifies with time. The upper low/trough
over Southcentral will retrograde west through the weekend,
becoming part of a deepening longwave trough setting up across the
Bering and Aleutians. At the same time, a longwave ridge will
develop downstream of the main upper trough, building steadily
into the eastern Gulf and Southeast through Sunday. This will put
Southcentral squarely within the prevailing storm track between
the very cold Arctic air building over northern/western Alaska and
the much warmer Pacific air and high pressure building into the
Gulf and Southeast. This could extend a period of major volatility
in temperatures and precipitation already getting started this
week for part of Southcentral into the weekend. Multiple large
swings between periods of cold temperatures and drier conditions
and warmer temperatures with light to moderate snow will be
possible as a series of lows move north into the region within a
corridor of southerly flow setting up between the ridge to the
southeast and trough to the northwest.

Meanwhile, most of Southwest will stay colder and drier through
the weekend as the Arctic air mass remains entrenched in place.
Much of the Aleutian Chain could see periods of ocean-effect snow
showers through Sunday as cold air streaming south modifies and
picks up moisture from the warmer ocean surface.

-AS

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...IFR to LIFR conditions will continue through this afternoon
as bands of light to moderate snow move over the Terminal. By late
this evening the snow should push more against the mountains,
leading to a gradual improvement of cigs and vis overnight. Breezy
north winds may however lead to some blowing and drifting snow
around 9 pm should they materialize. VFR conditions should return
tomorrow morning barring the formation of any fog.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1259 PM AKST Tue Jan 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     Snow             1 W Meadow Lakes        61.63N 149.63W
01/06/2026  M15.0 Inch       Matanuska-Susitna  AK   Public

&&

TK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
123 PM AKST Tue Jan 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 PM     Snow             1 NE Anchorage (Oceanvi 61.11N 149.86W
01/06/2026  M13.0 Inch       Anchorage          AK   Public

&&

TK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
125 PM AKST Tue Jan 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1248 PM     Snow             5 S Talkeetna           62.26N 150.07W
01/06/2026  M17.0 Inch       Matanuska-Susitna  AK   Public

&&

TK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
126 PM AKST Tue Jan 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1214 PM     Snow             4 E Big Lake            61.54N 149.83W
01/06/2026  M18.0 Inch       Matanuska-Susitna  AK   NWS Employee

&&

TK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
129 PM AKST Tue Jan 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     Snow             3 N Wasilla             61.62N 149.46W
01/06/2026  M12.5 Inch       Matanuska-Susitna  AK   Public

&&

TK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
140 PM AKST Tue Jan 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0106 PM     Snow             Anchorage (Rabbit Creek 61.07N 149.77W
01/06/2026  M15.4 Inch       Anchorage          AK   Public

&&

TK