Gale Warning 258, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
434 PM AKDT Mon Mar 16 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Thursday evening)...

A broad upper-level trough stretches from the Arctic southward
across Southcentral Alaska, into the Gulf and North Pacific. The
southern end of this trough is anchored by a broad upper-level low
spinning in the Gulf. This feature will remain in the Gulf
through the majority of the short-term. At the surface, a tight
compact low spins near Middleton Island. Currently, most snow
remains confined to the Gulf. However, bands of snow are clipping
Chenega Bay and southern Prince William Sound. A surface trough is
also lifting northwest across the eastern Gulf towards the north
Gulf Coast. Depending on the proximity of this trough to the
coast, Cordova could see additional light snow this evening.

The other big story given this current pattern are the gusty
winds, especially through the favored terrain, gaps, bays, and
passes. Winds have picked up in earnest around the Palmer area and
north with gusts already exceeding 60 mph today. These conditions
are expected to continue through this evening and overnight.
Therefore, the Wind Advisory has been upgraded to a High Wind
Warning for Palmer and areas north. Wasilla and ares west are
still expected to see lighter winds than compared to locations
east such as Palmer. Gusty northerly winds have increased along
the northwestern Kenai Peninsula including Kenai and Nikiski.
Winds have already been around 55 mph along the coast near Nikiski
with around the 50 mph mark near Kenai. Thus, a Wind Advisory has
been issued through 6 AM AKDT Tuesday morning to bring awareness
to the uptick in winds. Elsewhere, the Wind Advisory remain out
until 10 AM AKDT Tuesday morning for for Seward. Winds remain
gusty through Thompson Pass with gusts ranging between 45 to 60
mph at times. Overall, expect gusty winds to continue through the
favored gaps and terrain since cold air will continue to be in
place along with the upper-level low and various surface lows
that will continue taking up residence in the Gulf. However, winds
Wednesday and Thursday will not be quite as strong as today into
Tuesday morning.

Precipitation-wise, most precipitation should remain confined to
the Gulf with snow clipping the northern Gulf Coast from to time
through the short-term. There is more uncertainty for Thursday's
precipitation forecast as it will be very dependent on how a
compact low tracks and interacts with a southward digging trough
originating from Northern Alaska. There are some solutions that
want to bring light snow to inland locations of Southcentral,
including Anchorage, the Western Kenai Peninsula, and the Mat-Su
Valleys. For now, nudged up PoPs to slight chance until more
details can be ironed out on how the pattern will evolve.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Today through Wednesday)...

Little change to the forecast and weather pattern. Large ridge
persists over the Central to Western Bering and is showing no
signs of budging. Southwest Alaska remains clear, cold, and dry
through the first half of the week, while elevated northerly winds
will promote intermittent blowing snow and reduced visibilities
along the Kuskokwim Delta coast. Continued troughing in the Gulf
of Alaska will similarly allow winds elsewhere across the Alaska
Peninsula and the eastern Bering to remain gusty, leading to areas
of heavy freezing spray in coastal waters along the ice edge and
the Pacific-side of the Alaska Peninsula.

Through the remainder of the week, reinforcing shots of cold air
advection across Southwest Alaska will trend temperatures colder
once again with overnight and morning wind chill values falling
into the -20s to -30s. Across the Bering Sea, weak shortwaves
rounding the ridge will promote brief periods of snow showers for
the Pribilof Islands and portions of the Aleutian Chain and parts
of the west coast.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

After stubborn high pressure across the western Bering
Sea/Aleutians becomes briefly interrupted Friday from a north to
south moving front, high pressure will continue for the central
Bering Sea/Aleutians through Monday. This would open the door to
North Pacific moisture (rain/snow) from a series of fronts making
it across the western Aleutians. Meanwhile, the central Aleutians,
eastern Bering Sea, and the Pribilof Islands could see snow
showers accompanied with the front Friday. Behind the north-south
frontal passage Friday, periods of snow showers will become less
likely this weekend, but will remain possible under northerly flow
for the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. Any snow showers
for Southwest Mainland will remain confined to the mountain ranges
and at times along the coast, depending on how far east the snow
showers will nudge off the Bering.

Out east towards Southcentral, low pressure will remain in the
Gulf of Alaska through the long-term period. This will help to
maintain enhanced gap winds through the favored terrain and
passes. Expect the majority of snow to remain along the coast and
coastal mountain ranges. Most inland locations remain dry, but
portions of the Copper River Basin could see light snow showers
that make it across the Chugach mountains beginning Thursday and
continuing through Friday.

With the exception of the far western Bering Sea, the persistent
cold and dry airmass will continue across Alaska through the rest
of this week. Models are hinting at relatively warmer air (but
still cool air) dipping south into the Bering Sea starting Sunday
into next week. Otherwise, the general pattern is expected to
continue for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist into Tuesday.
Elevated northerly sustained winds of 18-20 kts gusting up to
around 35 kts will continue through late Monday night before
diminishing into the 15 to 20 kt range mid to late morning on
Tuesday.

&&