Gale Warning 255, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
431 AM AKDT Mon Mar 16 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Snow showers have tapered off for most areas, with some lingering
showers continuing along the coast near Cordova this morning. The
shortwave trough we have been watching over the weekend has
dropped south over Kodiak and will meld with the shortwave in the
Gulf, producing a large low pressure system. Gusty winds will
continue through tonight, with colder air being pulled south
across Southcentral. The Winter Weather Advisory for
blowing/drifting snow through Thompson Pass remains in effect
through this afternoon. Additionally, the Wind Advisory for Seward
and the lower Matanuska Valley remains in effect through Tuesday
morning. Temperatures will continue to drop over the next couple
of days, with wind chills approaching -30F to -40F for northern
portions of the Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin.

Gale force winds with localized areas of storm force gusts west
of the Barren Islands and through the gaps in Shelikof Strait will
produce areas of extreme freezing spray through Tuesday morning.

Very little change is expected through midweek to the broader
picture as the Gulf low stalls out close to Middleton Island while
cold, dry air continues to filter into Southcentral from the
north, leading to a steady cooling trend through midweek. Though
the strongest of the winds are expected to diminish.

KM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Today through Wednesday)...

The pattern of persistence across Southwest Alaska and the Bering
Sea continues with minimal changes through the middle of the
week. The blocking ridge will remain anchored over the western
Aleutians deep into the week while northerly flow remains ever
present. Southwest Alaska remains clear, cold, and dry through the
first half of the week, while elevated northerly winds continue
to promote intermittent blowing snow and reduced visibilities
along the Kuskokwim Delta coast. Continued troughing in the Gulf
of Alaska will similarly allow winds elsewhere across the Alaska
Peninsula and the eastern Bering to remain gusty, leading to areas
of heavy freezing spray in coastal waters along the ice edge and
the Pacific-side of the Alaska Peninsula.

Through the remainder of the week, reinforcing shots of cold air
advection across Southwest Alaska will trend temperatures colder
once again with overnight and morning wind chill values falling
into the -20s to -30s. Across the Bering Sea, weak shortwaves
rounding the ridge will promote brief periods of snow showers for
the Pribilof Islands and portions of the Aleutian Chain.

-JH

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

The long-term period begins with stubborn high pressure
persisting across the western Bering Sea and Western Aleutians
through Thursday. There are indications that this high pressure
system will slowly move eastward to the central Bering and Central
Aleutians through the end of next weekend. This would open the
door to moisture from a series of North Pacific fronts making it
over the Western Aleutians while the Central Aleutians remain
relatively quiet.

Meanwhile, the Eastern Aleutians, the Pribilof Islands, and
Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) will continue to be within cold northerly
flow coming off of the Bering through the long-term period.
Therefore, in this northerly flow pattern, expect snow showers
from time to time across the locations mentioned above through the
long-term period. Mainland Southwest Alaska looks to mainly stay
dry and cold as the current pattern persists. Any snow showers
will remain confined to the mountain ranges.

Out east towards Southcentral Alaska, a low pressure system will
remain in the Gulf of Alaska through the long-term period. This
will help to maintain enhanced gap winds through the favored
terrain and passes. Expect the majority of precipitation, in the
form of snow, to remain across the coast and coastal mountain
ranges of Prince William Sound, the Eastern Kenai Peninsula, and
the southern facing slopes of the Chugach Range along the north
Gulf Coast. Most inland locations look to remain on the dry side
with maybe portions of the southern Copper River Basin seeing some
snow showers from time to time making it across the Chugach;
especially Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist into Tuesday with a
trough of low pressure to remain southeast of Anchorage through
the latter half of the week. The pressure gradient on Monday will
favor northerly winds gusting up to around 30 knots. Winds will
peak in intensity by late this evening, before diminishing into
the 15 to 20 knot range on Tuesday.

&&