Gale Warning 253, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
436 PM AKDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Wednesday)...

Winter's grip continues to hold firmly in place as yet another
substantial push of Arctic air begins to filter into
Southcentral. The upper level pattern over the region is becoming
a bit more complex, with two separate shortwave troughs over the
Gulf and western Alaska Range beginning to interact with one
another. These features will soon consolidate into a large and
very deep upper level low over the Gulf as very cold and dry air
continues to stream into much of Southcentral off to the north of
this feature.

In the near term, snow showers are continuing to move into Cordova
and Valdez, while steadier snow persists across much of the Copper
Basin. Clouds have managed to mostly clear up for the time being
across much of the Susitna Valley down to the Kenai Peninsula, but
some upper level cloud cover bending back west around the trough
over the Gulf could fill back in as the evening progresses. Gusty
gap winds are also already picking up as cold air advection
increases and as a developing north-south pressure gradient
tightens up. Some of these gap winds are causing areas of blowing
snow, including near Valdez and Whittier. Very strong and gusty
winds are leading to more significant blowing snow through
Thompson Pass, where a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect
through tomorrow afternoon due to visibilities reduced to a half
mile or less at times.

Looking farther out into the week ahead, very little change is
expected to the broader picture as the Gulf low stalls out close
to Middleton Island while cold, dry air continues to filter into
Southcentral from the north, leading to a steady cooling trend
through midweek. Strong northerly gap winds will peak in
intensity for most places on Monday as the surface low in the gulf
and the strong pressure gradient to the north both reach their
maximum strength. Some of the strongest winds across the outlook
area are expected to affect marine waters north of Kodiak Island.
Across Shelikof Strait and west of the Barren Islands, heavy to
extreme freezing spray rates are likely through Tuesday due to the
combination of winds up to Storm Force and air temperatures in
the single digits to 10s above zero. Over land, the Thompson Pass,
Seward, Whittier and Palmer areas will likely see some of the
strongest wind gusts. Wind Advisories are now set to go into
effect later this evening into Monday for both Seward and the Mat
Valley, where wind gusts up to 50 mph can be expected at times.

By Wednesday, gap winds will begin to trend down somewhat as the
Gulf low begins to weaken and as northerly cold air advection
wanes. Much below average temperatures will persist, with high
temperatures in many locations still struggling to get above the
values for our normal low temperatures for mid March.

-AS

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Today through Tuesday)...

Minimal changes through the middle of the work week. Blocking
ridge will remain anchored over the western Aleutians deep into
the week while northerly flow remains ever present. Otherwise the
previous discussion covered everything well.

---previous discussion---

Northerly flow continues over Southwest Alaska and the Bering
Sea. The large blocking ridge visible in satellite imagery
continues to remain in place centered over the western Aleutians.
This persistent pattern continues into this week, with relatively
inactive weather expected across Southwest Alaska, the Bering Sea,
and the Aleutians. A weak shortwave moving north-to-south across
coastal Southwest has resulted in some light snow showers across
the Kuskokwim Delta early this morning and are expected to quickly
come to an end.

An Arctic trough digging southwards across the Interior and
stretching into the Gulf of Alaska will again allow for northerly
to northwesterly winds to strengthen across Southwest Alaska, the
Alaska Peninsula, and the eastern Bering Sea. Winds are expected
to strengthen throughout the day today, and will remain elevated
through at least the first half of this week as low pressure
develops in the Gulf while the ridge over the western Bering
remains nearly stationary. These stronger winds combined with low-
level cold air advection will lead to areas of heavy freezing
spray in coastal waters along the ice edge and the Pacific-side of
the Alaska Peninsula. Periods of blowing snow and reduced
visibilities will also be possible for locations including the
Kuskokwim Delta coast and portions of the Alaska Peninsula as
winds pick up and antecedent conditions remain favorable. This
pattern is expected to remain persistent through much of the week,
with any variation in the forecast due to weak shortwaves
rounding the ridge and promoting snow showers along the Aleutian
Chain.

-JH

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

The long-term period begins with stubborn high pressure
persisting across the western Bering Sea and Western Aleutians
through Thursday. There are indications that this high pressure
system will slowly move eastward to the central Bering and Central
Aleutians through the end of next weekend. This would open the
door to moisture from a series of North Pacific fronts making it
over the Western Aleutians while the Central Aleutians remain
relatively quiet.

Meanwhile, the Eastern Aleutians, the Pribilof Islands, and
Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) will continue to be within cold northerly
flow coming off of the Bering through the long-term period.
Therefore, in this northerly flow pattern, expect snow showers
from time to time across the locations mentioned above through the
long-term period. Mainland Southwest Alaska looks to mainly stay
dry and cold as the current pattern persists. Any snow showers
will remain confined to the mountain ranges.

Out east towards Southcentral Alaska, a low pressure system will
remain in the Gulf of Alaska through the long-term period. This
will help to maintain enhanced gap winds through the favored
terrain and passes. Expect the majority of precipitation, in the
form of snow, to remain across the coast and coastal mountain
ranges of Prince William Sound, the Eastern Kenai Peninsula, and
the southern facing slopes of the Chugach Range along the north
Gulf Coast. Most inland locations look to remain on the dry side
with maybe portions of the southern Copper River Basin seeing some
snow showers from time to time making it across the Chugach;
especially Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist through Monday.
Northerly winds will increase through this evening and then
remain gusty through Monday.

&&