Gale Warning 251, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
444 AM AKDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The forecast remains on track. Snow showers will gradually taper
off through this afternoon/evening for most areas across
Southcentral. The next big shortwave drops south across Southwest
Alaska and the western Alaska range this evening. Meanwhile, a
second shortwave moves up from the Gulf and will move east to west
across southern Southcentral. These waves in conjunction with the
pull of colder air, will generate increasingly gusty gap winds
that are expected to develop as early as this afternoon for many
of the typical gaps and mountain passes. Areas who have recently
seen snowfall, namely Cordova, Whittier/Portage, Valdez, and
Thompson Pass could see areas of blowing/drifting snow through
this evening into Monday morning as a result. Blowing/drifting
snow may produce areas of significantly reduced visibilities at
times. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Thompson Pass
for blowing/drifting snow, and a Special Weather Statement has
been issued for Whittier and Valdez.

Going into the start of the next workweek, the general pattern
will not change much as the low over the Gulf continues to spin
in place while cold air continues to settle in from the north.
Temperatures will begin to steadily trend downwards through
Tuesday, but will not drop off to levels well below zero due to
lingering winds and cloud cover. Still, the winds coupled with
single digit or colder lows will still produce frigid wind chills
down as low as the -10s to -20s, and perhaps as low as -40 for
mountain passes along the Alaska Range and through Thompson Pass
from Monday night to Tuesday night. Long story short, the
abnormally cold pattern is showing no signs of stopping just yet.

-KM/AS

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Today through Tuesday)...

Northerly flow continues over Southwest Alaska and the Bering
Sea. The large blocking ridge visible in satellite imagery
continues to remain in place centered over the western Aleutians.
This persistent pattern continues into this week, with relatively
inactive weather expected across Southwest Alaska, the Bering Sea,
and the Aleutians. A weak shortwave moving north-to-south across
coastal Southwest has resulted in some light snow showers across
the Kuskokwim Delta early this morning and are expected to quickly
come to an end.

An Arctic trough digging southwards across the Interior and
stretching into the Gulf of Alaska will again allow for northerly
to northwesterly winds to strengthen across Southwest Alaska, the
Alaska Peninsula, and the eastern Bering Sea. Winds are expected
to strengthen throughout the day today, and will remain elevated
through at least the first half of this week as low pressure
develops in the Gulf while the ridge over the western Bering
remains nearly stationary. These stronger winds combined with low-
level cold air advection will lead to areas of heavy freezing
spray in coastal waters along the ice edge and the Pacific-side of
the Alaska Peninsula. Periods of blowing snow and reduced
visibilities will also be possible for locations including the
Kuskokwim Delta coast and portions of the Alaska Peninsula as
winds pick up and antecedent conditions remain favorable. This
pattern is expected to remain persistent through much of the week,
with any variation in the forecast due to weak shortwaves
rounding the ridge and promoting snow showers along the Aleutian
Chain.

-JH

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday night through
Saturday)...

The long-term begins late Tuesday with the stagnant high
amplitude pattern in place -- a deep sub 500 dm upper-level low
anchored over the northern Gulf and a stout 560+ dm ridge over
the North Pacific and Western Bering/Aleutians.

The result of this pattern is continued cold across the state,
with the core of the arctic airmass draped across the Copper
River Basin and Interior and Western Alaska. Expect temperatures
to remain well below average with overnight lows well below zero
and daytime highs struggling to climb out of the single digits and
teens for the typically coldest locations. Closer to the
Southcentral coast, temperatures will still be well below normal,
but not quite as cold as multiple surface lows keep clouds and
areas of snow showers along the coast.

Between the two longwave features, multiple shortwaves will dive
south across the eastern half of the Bering through the week.
These shortwaves will bring periods of snow to the Pribilofs,
eastern half of the Aleutians, and Alaska Peninsula. In addition
to the snow showers, gusty northerly winds will maintain along
these same areas, with the strongest winds and gusts likely
across the Alaska Peninsula and the coastal waters from the
Barren Islands to Unimak Island. Gusty winds will also continue
across favored gap and mountain pass locations across Southcentral
as cold air continues to spill southward and the tight pressure
gradient between a surface ridge over the Interior and multiple
surface lows persists.

&&

.AVIATION...

A shortwave brings light snow showers to the area through 18Z as
a weak low in the Gulf of Alaska moves into Prince William Sound.
VFR conditions and northerly winds 10 to 15 kt expected
afterward. Another shortwave brings the chance for light snow
late this afternoon into this evening. Overnight into Monday,
northerly wind gusts range from 20 to 30 knots.

&&