Gale Warning 249, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
435 PM AKDT Sat Mar 14 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Tuesday)...

A shortwave trough axis that crossed over the western Alaska
Range earlier today is beginning to stall out as it approaches the
Cook Inlet and Kodiak Island region. Ahead of this trough,
southwesterly flow aloft has overspread much of Southcentral,
while mostly light winds continue at the surface. Snow showers
near a weak low drifting over the Gulf are being pulled north into
the coast, causing intermittent periods of heavier snowfall
around Prince William Sound, including in and around Whittier,
Valdez and Cordova. Lighter and more steady snowfall has begun to
spread north towards the southern Copper River Basin as weak lift
and moisture from the Gulf gradually spread north. Radar returns
have also been lighting up between central portions of the Kenai
Peninsula and the Mat Valley just out ahead of the shortwave
trough. However, snow along this corridor has so far been
struggling to reach the ground due to dry air in the low levels of
the atmosphere. Even if steadier snow is able to begin reaching
the ground, expect only a dusting to half inch of new snowfall
accumulation for most places west of the Chugach Mountains through
tonight.

In terms of the forecast through early next week, there is little
change in thinking for the overall trends expected. Much of the
greater Prince William Sound region is on track to see around 2 to
5 additional inches of snowfall accumulation through midday
Sunday, with the highest amounts expected near Thompson Pass,
Valdez and Cordova. By Sunday evening, a secondary shortwave will
drive south along the western Alaska Range into the western Gulf,
then merge with the current system to form a deep, complex upper
level low moving out over the Gulf. This will mark the start of
another surge of Arctic air spreading south into Southcentral,
along with a return to strong and gusty gap winds through all the
typical spots once again. Areas of blowing snow and reduced
visibility will be possible near the onset of stronger winds on
Sunday evening, especially where fresh snow cover will be in
place, including near Valdez, Whittier and Thompson Pass.

Going into the start of the next workweek, the general pattern
will not change much as the low over the Gulf continues to spin
in place while cold air continues to settle in from the north.
Temperatures will begin to steadily trend downwards through
Tuesday, but will not drop off to levels well below zero due to
lingering winds and cloud cover. Still, the winds coupled with
single digit or colder lows will still produce frigid wind chills
down as low as the -10s to -20s, and perhaps as low as -40 for
mountain passes along the Alaska Range and through Thompson Pass
from Monday night to Tuesday night. Long story short, the
abnormally cold pattern is showing no signs of stopping just yet.

-AS

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Today through Monday)...

Northerly flow continues over Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea.
The large blocking ridge visible in satellite imagery continues to
remain in place centered over the western Aleutians, while low
stratus blankets the western Bering Sea underneath the ridge. This
persistent pattern continues through the remainder of the weekend
and into next week, with relatively inactive weather expected
across Southwest Alaska, the Bering Sea, and the Aleutians. A
small shortwave moving up and over the ridge will move quickly
north-to-south across coastal Southwest. A brief chance for snow
showers is expected, quickly coming to an end by Sunday morning.

An Arctic trough digs southwards today across the Interior and
eventually stretches into the Gulf of Alaska for Sunday. With the
ridge remaining nearly stationary, this will again allow for
northerly to northwesterly winds to strengthen across Southwest
Alaska, the Alaska Peninsula, and the eastern Bering Sea for
Sunday into Monday. These stronger winds combined with low level
cold air advection will lead to areas of heavy freezing spray in
coastal waters along the ice edge and the Pacific-side of the
Alaska Peninsula. Periods of blowing snow will also be possible
for locations including the Kuskokwim Delta coast and portions of
the Alaska Peninsula as winds pick up and antecedent conditions
remain favorable. As low pressure develops in the Gulf, winds are
expected to remain elevated through the early part of next week.
Pattern is expected to remain persistent into the next work week
with the next active system potentially bringing showers to the
Central Aleutians by Tuesday morning.

-JH/CL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday night through
Saturday)...

The long-term begins late Tuesday with the stagnant high
amplitude pattern in place -- a deep sub 500 dm upper-level low
anchored over the northern Gulf and a stout 560+ dm ridge over
the North Pacific and Western Bering/Aleutians.

The result of this pattern is continued cold across the state,
with the core of the arctic airmass draped across the Copper
River Basin and Interior and Western Alaska. Expect temperatures
to remain well below average with overnight lows well below zero
and daytime highs struggling to climb out of the single digits and
teens for the typically coldest locations. Closer to the
Southcentral coast, temperatures will still be well below normal,
but not quite as cold as multiple surface lows keep clouds and
areas of snow showers along the coast.

Between the two longwave features, multiple shortwaves will dive
south across the eastern half of the Bering through the week.
These shortwaves will bring periods of snow to the Pribilofs,
eastern half of the Aleutians, and Alaska Peninsula. In addition
to the snow showers, gusty northerly winds will maintain along
these same areas, with the strongest winds and gusts likely
across the Alaska Peninsula and the coastal waters from the
Barren Islands to Unimak Island. Gusty winds will also continue
across favored gap and mountain pass locations across Southcentral
as cold air continues to spill southward and the tight pressure
gradient between a surface ridge over the Interior and multiple
surface lows persists.

&&

.AVIATION...

An upper level trough over the Anchorage area, combined with low
level moisture moving in from the southeast is producing some
light snow over the airport this afternoon. With Anchorage being
on the far west side of the snow, conditions are expected to
remain mostly VFR in spite of the snow. However, even in a light
snow event, a chance for some MVFR periods through early evening
cannot be ruled out. By midnight, northerly winds should help
usher in drier air and end the snow. Clouds should dissipate on
Sunday with VFR conditions and northerly winds 10 to 15 kt.

&&