Gale Warning 225, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
447 PM AKST Wed Mar 4 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3: This afternoon through Saturday afternoon)...

Key Messages:

* A period of light snow is likely for Kodiak Island overnight
  tonight into Thursday morning.

* Expect a gradual trend towards warmer and cloudier conditions as
  incoming storms begin to break down the ridge of surface high
  pressure over the Mainland.

* We continue to monitor a strong low pressure system moving in
  from late Thursday into Friday. Potential hazards include heavy
  snow, blowing snow, and, along the Gulf coast, potential for
  snow to mix with or change to rain.

Discussion:

The subtropical jet stream in the Pacific will reorient from the
North Pacific to the Gulf and help steer storm systems quickly
across the Gulf. The first, weaker low will arrive tonight into
tomorrow with gusty easterly winds across the northern Gulf and a
period of snow for Kodiak Island, with up to 2-4 inches of
accumulation possible by Thursday afternoon for Kodiak City. The
easterly flow across the northern Gulf will also result in snow
showers across Prince William Sound through Thursday.

By Thursday into Friday, a much stronger storm moves in from the
North Pacific. Forecast confidence has increased with the general
picture and timing of this storm, but there remains uncertainty.
Deterministic models are generally showing 2 scenarios: the low
center moving up Cook Inlet, or the low center tracking along
Eastern Kenai Peninsula and into Prince William Sound. Both
scenarios are equally likely, though our forecast is based on the
first scenario.

Even though there's uncertainty with the track of the low, there
are some aspects of the forecast where we DO have moderate to high
confidence. We continue to expect the heaviest snow amounts and
strongest winds along Kenai Peninsula, Turnagain Arm, and Prince
William Sound. The threat of heavy snow and blowing snow will be
greatest in these areas. These areas will also likely see their
temperatures rise to or above freezing for several hours, which
could create difficult travel conditions due to rain on sub-
freezing roads, or rain on snow. Forecast confidence is also
fairly high for Kodiak Island; aside from some minor timing
differences, the modeled low tracks diverge after the low has
mostly moved beyond Kodiak Island.

Where forecast confidence is lowest is mostly along Cook Inlet and
in the interior. Our forecast package is based on the first
scenario, which has lower snow amounts for interior locations. If
the second scenario were to play out, there could be much more
snow (especially in favored downslope areas like parts of Western
Kenai Peninsula, Mat Valley, and Anchorage) than currently
forecast. If you'll be in this area late this week, stay tuned to
the forecast.

As the storm begins to move out of the area, generally expect
improving conditions from Friday night into Saturday. Onshore flow
and an incoming shortwave will lead to continued snow along
Eastern Prince William Sound and the Talkeetna Mountains. Details
remain unclear as this period of the forecast will be highly
dependent on which track Thursday/Friday's low ends up taking.

-TM/KC

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Tonight through Saturday)...

A deep Arctic airmass remains firmly entrenched over mainland
Alaska and the Bering Sea, with northerly flow maintaining the
cold air across the region. The prolonged nature of the pattern
has resulted in growth and advection of sea ice across the
northern and eastern Bering Sea, with the ice edge approaching the
northern edge of the Pribilof Islands. As the cold air moves over
open water, stratocumulus clouds and snow showers develop. These
clouds and showers cover nearly the entire Bering Sea and Aleutian
chain. Southwest Alaska remains mostly clear and cold, except for
an area of clouds due to a weak meso-low located near Cape
Newenham; this low will quickly diminish by Thursday morning
without upper level support.

A strong storm system is set to move out of the Northern Pacific
Thursday into Southern Alaska. Solutions continue to try to
resolve the storm track, but there remains enough variance in the
model output to lead to a low confidence forecast for areas on the
periphery of the system - along the Aleutians and north across
Bristol Bay and the Lake Iliamna Region. These areas just
reference remain within a Winter Weather Watch, while the Alaska
Peninsula has been upgraded to a Blizzard Warning. Given the
strength and persistence of the current cold air mass over the
region, confidence is high that precipitation from this system
will remain cold enough for snow, preventing a warm surge from
really infiltrating the southern coastline.

Meanwhile, a second compact upper low will drop southward out of
eastern Russia tonight and across the western Bering and Aleutians
Wednesday through Thursday. A weak surface low will also form
beneath the upper center. This will bring gusty winds and
continued snow showers to the Aleutians from around Atka west.

As each of the aforementioned lows drop south by early Saturday
morning, Arctic air will reign supreme across the eastern Bering
and Southwest Alaska, leading to another period of gusty winds and
light snow showers that will bring us into next week.

-AB/CL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Sunday through
Wednesday)...

Upper-level troughing centered over the northern Gulf of Alaska
will extend south into the Northern Pacific, with multiple
shortwaves rotating around the trough. Strong northwesterly flow
and cold air advection will bring a shortwave producing a brief
period of snow to the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula on
Tuesday. High pressure across the Bering and a lingering surface
low in the eastern Gulf increase the potential for strong gap
winds across the Barren Islands and Southern Alaska Peninsula.
Forecast confidence is high that both Southwest and Southcentral
Alaska will continue to see below normal temperatures into the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through 00Z
Friday.

&&