Blizzard Warning 12, NWS Anchorage, AK

223 
WWAK42 PAFC 051314
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
414 AM AKST Thu Mar 5 2026

AKZ762>764-060300-
/O.UPG.PAFC.WS.A.0010.260306T0300Z-260307T0000Z/
/O.EXB.PAFC.BZ.W.0012.260306T0300Z-260307T0000Z/
Northern Alaska Peninsula-Bristol Bay Borough (Naknek and King
Salmon)-Northern Bristol Bay Coast-
Including the cities of Egegik, King Salmon, Naknek, Manokotak,
Dillingham, Pilot Point, and Togiak
414 AM AKST Thu Mar 5 2026

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM AKST 
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 
  to 11 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. Visibility reduced 
  to one-quarter mile at times.

* WHERE...Bristol Bay Borough (Naknek and King Salmon), Northern 
  Alaska Peninsula including Pilot Point, and Northern Bristol Bay 
  Coast including Dillingham.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 3 PM AKST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities reduced to one quarter mile or less due to 
  blowing snow. Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A strong low pressure system will approach 
  the Bristol Bay Thursday bringing snowfall and gusty winds, 
  leading to blizzard conditions. Communities such Dillingham and 
  King Salmon will experience the strongest winds under this pattern 
  promoting blizzard conditions, reducing visibility to one-quarter 
  mile or less at times. Highest snow accumulations expected from 
  Egegik to Pilot Point, with relatively lower totals expected near 
  Dillingham. Note that cold air will be ushered into the area 
  behind this system.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are 
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds 
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout 
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel, have a 
winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your 
vehicle.

Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely 
necessary, do so with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden 
changes in visibility.

&&

$$

AKZ761-773-781-060300-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0012.260306T0000Z-260306T2100Z/
Central Alaska Peninsula-Chignik-Southern Alaska Peninsula-
Including the cities of False Pass, Cold Bay, Port Heiden,
Chignik, Perryville, and Sand Point
414 AM AKST Thu Mar 5 2026

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 
NOON AKST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Total snow accumulations up to 4 to 12 
  inches. Northerly winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Visibility 
  reduced to one-quarter mile at times.

* WHERE...Central Alaska Peninsula, Chignik, and Southern Alaska 
  Peninsula.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to noon AKST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities reduced to one quarter mile or less due to 
  blowing snow. Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. Gusty winds could blow 
  around unsecured objects.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A strong low pressure system in the northern 
  Pacific will approach the Alaska Peninsula Thursday bringing a 
  long period of snowfall and gusty winds, leading to blizzard 
  conditions. Communities such King Cove and Sand Point will 
  experience the strongest enhancement of winds under this pattern 
  and will easily achieve blizzard conditions, reducing visibility 
  to one-quarter mile or less at times. Note that cold air will be 
  ushered into the area behind this system.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are 
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds 
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout 
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel, have a 
winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your 
vehicle.

Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely 
necessary, do so with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden 
changes in visibility.

&&

$$

AKZ785-060300-
/O.UPG.PAFC.WS.A.0010.260305T2100Z-260306T1500Z/
/O.NEW.PAFC.WW.Y.0032.260305T2100Z-260306T1500Z/
Eastern Aleutians-
Including the cities of Unalaska, Nikolski, and Akutan
414 AM AKST Thu Mar 5 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM AKST 
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow possible. Total snow accumulations 3 
  to 6 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. 
  Visibility reduced to one-half mile or less at times.

* WHERE...Unalaska and Akutan

* WHEN...From noon today to 6 AM AKST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities reduced to one half mile or less due to 
  blowing snow. Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. Gusty winds could blow 
  around unsecured objects.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A strong low pressure system in the northern 
  Pacific will approach the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula Thursday. 
  Low position Thursday afternoon is continuing to slide further 
  east, placing Unalaska and Akutan on the periphery of this system. 
  This is expected to bring blowing snow potentially reducing 
  visibility to one-half mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

AKZ765-766-060300-
/O.UPG.PAFC.WS.A.0010.260306T0300Z-260307T0000Z/
/O.NEW.PAFC.WW.Y.0032.260306T0300Z-260307T0000Z/
Inland Bristol Bay-Lake Iliamna / Nila Vena / Nanvarpak-
Including the cities of Kokhanok, Aleknagik, Iliamna, Port
Alsworth, New Stuyahok, Koliganek, and Nondalton
414 AM AKST Thu Mar 5 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM 
AKST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations up 
  to 4 to 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. Visibility 
  reduced to one-half mile or less at times.

* WHERE...Inland Bristol Bay including New Stuyahok and Lake Iliamna 
  communities.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 3 PM AKST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities reduced to one half mile or less due to 
  blowing snow. Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A strong low pressure system will approach 
  the Bristol Bay Thursday bringing snowfall and gusty winds. 
  Communities such New Stuyahok and Levelock will experience the 
  strongest winds under this pattern, reducing visibility to 
  one-half mile at times. Winds will be strongest for communities 
  close to the coast. Note that cold air will be ushered into the 
  area behind this system.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

019 
WWAK42 PAFC 060036
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
336 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2026

AKZ761-773-781-061600-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0012.000000T0000Z-260306T2100Z/
Central Alaska Peninsula-Chignik-Southern Alaska Peninsula-
Including the cities of Perryville, Sand Point, Port Heiden,
False Pass, Chignik, and Cold Bay
336 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2026

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Total snow accumulations up to 4 to 12 
  inches. Northerly winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Visibility 
  reduced to one-quarter mile at times.

* WHERE...Central Alaska Peninsula, Chignik, and Southern Alaska 
  Peninsula.

* WHEN...Until noon AKST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities reduced to one quarter mile or less due to 
  blowing snow. Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. Gusty winds could blow 
  around unsecured objects.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A strong low pressure system in the northern 
  Pacific will approach the Alaska Peninsula Thursday bringing a 
  long period of snowfall and gusty winds, leading to blizzard 
  conditions. Note that cold air will be ushered into the area 
  behind this system.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are 
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds 
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout 
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel, have a 
winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your 
vehicle.

Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely 
necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden 
changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the 
motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your 
destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially 
cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is 
winterized and in good working order.

&&

$$

AKZ762>764-061600-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0012.260306T0300Z-260307T0000Z/
Northern Alaska Peninsula-Bristol Bay Borough (Naknek and King
Salmon)-Northern Bristol Bay Coast-
Including the cities of Egegik, King Salmon, Manokotak, Pilot
Point, Dillingham, Togiak, and Naknek
336 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2026

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 
  to 11 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. Visibility reduced 
  to one-quarter mile at times.

* WHERE...Bristol Bay Borough (Naknek and King Salmon), Northern 
  Alaska Peninsula including Pilot Point, and Northern Bristol Bay 
  Coast including Dillingham.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM AKST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities reduced to one quarter mile or less due to 
  blowing snow. Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A strong low pressure system will approach 
  the Bristol Bay Thursday bringing snowfall and gusty winds, 
  leading to blizzard conditions. Communities such Dillingham and 
  King Salmon will experience the strongest winds under this pattern 
  promoting blizzard conditions, reducing visibility to one-quarter 
  mile or less at times. Highest snow accumulations expected from 
  Egegik to Pilot Point, with relatively lower totals expected near 
  Dillingham. Note that cold air will be ushered into the area 
  behind this system.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are 
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds 
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout 
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel, have a 
winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your 
vehicle.

&&

$$

AKZ785-061500-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-260306T1500Z/
Eastern Aleutians-
Including the cities of Nikolski, Unalaska, and Akutan
336 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST 
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow possible. Total snow accumulations 3 
  to 6 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. 
  Visibility reduced to one-half mile or less at times.

* WHERE...Unalaska and Akutan

* WHEN...Until 6 AM AKST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities reduced to one half mile or less due to 
  blowing snow. Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. Gusty winds could blow 
  around unsecured objects.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A strong low pressure system in the northern 
  Pacific will approach the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula Thursday. 
  Low position Thursday afternoon is continuing to slide further 
  east, placing Unalaska and Akutan on the periphery of this system. 
  This is expected to bring blowing snow potentially reducing 
  visibility to one-half mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

AKZ765-766-061600-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0032.260306T0300Z-260307T0000Z/
Inland Bristol Bay-Lake Iliamna / Nila Vena / Nanvarpak-
Including the cities of New Stuyahok, Aleknagik, Koliganek,
Iliamna, Kokhanok, Nondalton, and Port Alsworth
336 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST 
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations up 
  to 4 to 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. Visibility 
  reduced to one-half mile or less at times.

* WHERE...Inland Bristol Bay including New Stuyahok and Lake Iliamna 
  communities.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM AKST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities reduced to one half mile or less due to 
  blowing snow. Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A strong low pressure system will approach 
  the Bristol Bay Thursday bringing snowfall and gusty winds. 
  Communities such New Stuyahok and Levelock will experience the 
  strongest winds under this pattern, reducing visibility to 
  one-half mile at times. Winds will be strongest for communities 
  close to the coast. Note that cold air will be ushered into the 
  area behind this system.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

479 
WWAK42 PAFC 061206
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
306 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2026

AKZ761-773-781-062100-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0012.000000T0000Z-260306T2100Z/
Central Alaska Peninsula-Chignik-Southern Alaska Peninsula-
Including the cities of False Pass, Sand Point, Chignik, Port
Heiden, Perryville, and Cold Bay
306 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2026

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Total snow accumulations up to 4 to 10 
  inches. Northerly winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Visibility 
  reduced to one-quarter mile at times.

* WHERE...Central Alaska Peninsula, Chignik, and Southern Alaska 
  Peninsula.

* WHEN...Until noon AKST today.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities reduced to one quarter mile or less due to 
  blowing snow. Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. Gusty winds could blow 
  around unsecured objects.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A strong low pressure system in the northern 
  Pacific will approach the Alaska Peninsula Thursday bringing a 
  long period of snowfall and gusty winds, leading to blizzard 
  conditions. Note that cold air will be ushered into the area 
  behind this system.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are 
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds 
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout 
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel, have a 
winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your 
vehicle.

Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely 
necessary, do so with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden 
changes in visibility.

&&

$$

AKZ762>764-070000-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0012.000000T0000Z-260307T0000Z/
Northern Alaska Peninsula-Bristol Bay Borough (Naknek and King
Salmon)-Northern Bristol Bay Coast-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Pilot Point, Egegik,
Manokotak, Togiak, Naknek, and Dillingham
306 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2026

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 
  to 10 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. Visibility reduced 
  to one-quarter mile at times.

* WHERE...Bristol Bay Borough (Naknek and King Salmon), Northern 
  Alaska Peninsula including Pilot Point, and Northern Bristol Bay 
  Coast including Dillingham.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM AKST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities reduced to one quarter mile or less due to 
  blowing snow. Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A strong low pressure system will approach 
  the Bristol Bay Thursday bringing snowfall and gusty winds, 
  leading to blizzard conditions. Communities such Dillingham and 
  King Salmon will experience the strongest winds under this pattern 
  promoting blizzard conditions, reducing visibility to one-quarter 
  mile or less at times. Highest snow accumulations expected from 
  Egegik to Pilot Point, with relatively lower totals expected near 
  Dillingham. Note that cold air will be ushered into the area 
  behind this system.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are 
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds 
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout 
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel, have a 
winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your 
vehicle.

Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely 
necessary, do so with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden 
changes in visibility.

&&

$$

AKZ765-766-070000-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-260307T0000Z/
Inland Bristol Bay-Lake Iliamna / Nila Vena / Nanvarpak-
Including the cities of Nondalton, Port Alsworth, Iliamna, New
Stuyahok, Aleknagik, Kokhanok, and Koliganek
306 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations up 
  to 4 to 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. Visibility 
  reduced to one-half mile or less at times.

* WHERE...Inland Bristol Bay including New Stuyahok and Lake Iliamna 
  communities.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM AKST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities reduced to one half mile or less due to 
  blowing snow. Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A strong low pressure system will approach 
  the Bristol Bay Thursday bringing snowfall and gusty winds. 
  Communities such New Stuyahok and Levelock will experience the 
  strongest winds under this pattern, reducing visibility to 
  one-half mile at times. Winds will be strongest for communities 
  close to the coast. Note that cold air will be ushered into the 
  area behind this system.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

AKZ785-061500-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-260306T1500Z/
Eastern Aleutians-
Including the cities of Nikolski, Unalaska, and Akutan
306 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST EARLY 
THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow possible. Total snow accumulations 3 
  to 6 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. 
  Visibility reduced to one-half mile or less at times.

* WHERE...Unalaska and Akutan

* WHEN...Until 6 AM AKST early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities reduced to one half mile or less due to 
  blowing snow. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A strong low pressure system in the northern 
  Pacific will approach the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula Thursday. 
  Low position Thursday afternoon is continuing to slide further 
  east, placing Unalaska and Akutan on the periphery of this system. 
  This is expected to bring blowing snow potentially reducing 
  visibility to one-half mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling, especially in open areas.

&&

$$

CL

015 
WWAK42 PAFC 062038
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1138 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2026

AKZ762>764-062145-
/O.CAN.PAFC.BZ.W.0012.000000T0000Z-260307T0000Z/
Northern Alaska Peninsula-Bristol Bay Borough (Naknek and King
Salmon)-Northern Bristol Bay Coast-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Pilot Point, Naknek,
Dillingham, Togiak, Manokotak, and Egegik
1138 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2026

...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The threat of blizzard conditions has ended as the low pressure 
system has transitioned quickly east towards the Gulf. In its wake, 
expect periods of gusty northerly winds and blowing snow to persist 
through the weekend.

$$

AKZ761-773-781-062145-
/O.EXP.PAFC.BZ.W.0012.000000T0000Z-260306T2100Z/
Central Alaska Peninsula-Chignik-Southern Alaska Peninsula-
Including the cities of Cold Bay, Sand Point, Chignik, Port
Heiden, Perryville, and False Pass
1138 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2026

...BLIZZARD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT NOON AKST TODAY...

The threat of blizzard conditions has ended as the low pressure 
system has transitioned quickly east towards the Gulf. In its wake, 
expect periods of gusty northerly winds and blowing snow to persist 
through the weekend.

$$

AKZ765-766-062145-
/O.CAN.PAFC.WW.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-260307T0000Z/
Inland Bristol Bay-Lake Iliamna / Nila Vena / Nanvarpak-
Including the cities of Aleknagik, Iliamna, Nondalton, Port
Alsworth, New Stuyahok, Kokhanok, and Koliganek
1138 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The threat of moderate snowfall, blowing snow, and widespread 
reduced visibilities has ended as the low pressure system has 
transitioned quickly east towards the Gulf. In its wake, gusty 
northwesterly winds and cold temperatures will prevail.

$$

AB

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
527 AM AKST Wed Mar 4 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3/This afternoon through Friday afternoon)...

Key Messages (no significant changes to previous forecast):

* Cold Weather Advisories are once again in effect for the Seward
  area, Whittier, and Thompson Pass through noon tomorrow.

* A period of snow is likely for Kodiak Island overnight tonight
  into Thursday morning.

* Expect a gradual trend towards warmer and cloudier conditions as
  incoming storms begin to break down the ridge of surface high
  pressure over the Mainland.

* Though forecast confidence remains low to moderate, we're
  monitoring the potential for widespread snow, with the potential
  for coastal rain, as a strong low pressure system approaches
  from late Thursday through Friday.

Discussion:

The short-term forecast remains on track through late Thursday
with the Arctic trough anchored over Mainland Alaska slowly
giving way to a more amplified and active weather pattern for
later this week. Currently, this feature is keeping bitterly cold
temperatures in place across Southcentral with clear skies for
all but the Copper River Basin as moisture from a low in the
eastern Gulf is lifted northwestward by a negatively tilted trough
over the Kenai Peninsula. Cold Weather Advisories remain in place
through noon today for the Seward area, Whittier, and Thompson
Pass as gusty gap winds allow frigid wind chills to persist.
Confidence is fairly high that conditions will warm by tomorrow as
winds diminish, and as incoming moisture and cloud cover helps to
moderate air temperatures.

The aforementioned low and trough are allowing the moisture to
wring out in the form of snow for the eastern Copper River Basin
with several inches of snow likely for McCarthy before the trough
exits later today. There us be a sharp cutoff in the cloud cover
and precipitation along the western periphery of the trough,
resulting in much lighter snow accumulation toward the Richardson
Highway.

Farther upstream, a short-wave over the Seward Peninsula will
continue to dig southward across western AK this morning,
developing into an upper low before stalling over Southwest AK
Wednesday through Thursday. The subtropical jet stream in the
Pacific will then reorient from the North Pacific to the Gulf and
help steer storm systems quickly across the Gulf. The first,
weaker low will arrive Wednesday night and Thursday with gusty
easterly winds across the northern Gulf and a period of snow for
Kodiak Island, with up to 2 inches of accumulation possible by
Thursday morning for Kodiak City. The easterly flow across the
northern Gulf will also result in snow showers across Prince
William Sound through Thursday.

By Thursday into Friday, a much stronger storm moves in from the
North Pacific. There remains uncertainty with the track of this
stronger storm, owing to questions of how this incoming upper low
will interact with the aforementioned one lingering over
Southcentral. Still, this storm will likely be robust enough to
bring widespread precipitation across Southcentral Alaska, with
the potential for periods of moderate to heavy snow, blowing snow
for some coastal locations at the onset of snowfall, and a snow to
rain transition for Kodiak Island and along the Prince William
Sound coast. Due to uncertainty with the low track, it's
difficult to say, for now, what snow/rain amounts or potential
impacts may be; however, favored locations - Turnagain Pass,
Portage Valley, Western Kenai Peninsula, Western Susitna Valley,
Valdez, and the Southern Copper River Basin - could all see
several inches of snow with this system. Stay tuned.

-KC/TM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Tonight through Friday)...

A deep Arctic airmass remains firmly entrenched over mainland
Alaska and the Bering Sea, with northerly flow maintaining the
cold air across the region. The prolonged nature of the pattern
has resulted in growth and advection of sea ice across the
northern and eastern Bering Sea, with the ice edge approaching the
Pribilof Islands. As the cold air moves over open water,
stratocumulus clouds and snow showers develop. These clouds and
showers cover nearly the entire Bering Sea and Aleutian chain.
Southwest Alaska remains mostly clear and cold.

A strong disruptive storm system is poised to move out of the
Northern Pacific Thursday into Southern Alaska. While solutions
are confident on a northward surge of this system, there is a
large spread in both operational and ensemble solutions. The storm
track ranges anywhere from Kodiak Island to Bristol Bay, creating
a high level of uncertainty in the forecast. The past few model
runs have trended toward more wind and precipitation affecting
Southwest Alaska Thursday afternoon through Friday morning,
especially along the Alaska Peninsula and into Bristol Bay. Given
the strength and persistence of the current cold air mass over the
region, confidence is high that precipitation from this system
will remain cold enough for mostly snow. The current forecasted
storm track would keep Unalaska and Akutan on the periphery of the
system, but may see some blowing snow. Snow and blowing snow with
reduced visibilities will be the primary impact to travel. As
such, Winter Storm Watches have been issued for Unalaska/Akutan,
the Alaska Peninsula, and Bristol Bay. Locations along the Alaska
Peninsula near Cold Bay, are expected to see the highest potential
for the most impactful conditions, with the area potentially
seeing blizzard conditions.

Meanwhile, a second compact upper low will drop southward out of
eastern Russia tonight and across the western Bering and Aleutians
Wednesday through Thursday. A weak surface low will also form
beneath the upper center. This will bring stronger winds and
heavier and more sustained snow showers to the Aleutians from
around Adak west to Shemya.

As the low tracking across southern AK exits Friday, Arctic air
will come back southward across the eastern Bering and Southwest
Alaska, leading to an increase in winds and snow showers,
especially along the Alaska Peninsula. This will take us right
back to the pattern we've been in for much of the past few weeks.

-CL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Saturday through Tuesday)...

Upper-level troughing centered over the northern Gulf of Alaska
will extend south into the Northern Pacific, with multiple
shortwaves rotating around the trough. Some model differences in
the position and track of resulting surface lows lifting into the
Gulf will continue to keep the precipitation forecast confidence
below average for the long term. A lean towards the GFS ensembles
brings a shortwave over the Western Aleutians by mid to late week
with a shot of colder temperatures dropping southward out of
Northeast Russia and into the western Bering. Strong
northwesterly flow and cold air advection will lead to the
potential for strong gap winds across the Barren Islands and
Southern Alaska Peninsula. While forecast confidence is low with
regard to where surface features and precipitation ultimately
develop, forecast confidence is high that both Southwest and
Southcentral Alaska will continue to see below normal temperatures
through the end of this week.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds are expected to persist.

&&