Gale Warning 193, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
540 PM AKST Mon Feb 23 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Thursday)...

An anomalously strong ridge remains parked over the north-central
Pacific. The ridge axis which extended north into southern Ak
yesterday has now been pushed southward into the Gulf of Alaska in
response to short-waver riding overtop of it. Very warm low level
air (50 degrees Fahrenheit or warmer) extends from the southern
Bering and Aleutians across Bristol Bay to Kodiak Island and the
southern Kenai Peninsula. Westerly winds across Kodiak Island are
helping to mix some of this warmer air down to the surface while
sinking air is also contributing to warming. As a result, Kodiak
City has observed a daily record high for the second day in a row,
having reached 56 degrees as of 3pm. Meanwhile, temperatures
across much of the Kenai Peninsula, Prince William Sound, and the
Gulf coast are above freezing. Sub-freezing temperatures persist
as you head inland across Southcentral. A weak upper level short-
wave embedded in deep westerly flow north of the ridge is approaching
Southcentral this afternoon, leading to areas of light snow along
the Alaska Range and spreading to the Talkeetna Mountains, northern
Copper Basin, and Wrangell Mountains.

The upper level flow will slowly amplify tonight, with multiple
short-waves crossing Southcentral. This will bring precipitation
southward to around Anchorage, Turnagain Arm and on over to the
Valdez/Cordova area. While the airmass will be cooling as
precipitation arrives, mixed precipitation (rain, freezing rain,
snow) is likely early on. However, precipitation amounts and
intensity will be quite light, with most of the precipitation
focused along the mountains in the westerly flow. So impacts
should be minimal. The heaviest snow will fall where it is much
colder in the northern to eastern Copper Basin. A subtle shift in
the track of the short-wave means less snow for the central Copper
Valley (including Glennallen). The area of heaviest snow still
appears to be along the Tok cutoff from around Gakona to Slana.

A very cold Arctic low and accompanying stronger short-waves will
dig southward across mainland AK Tuesday. The leading Arctic front
will arrive in the Mat-Su and Anchorage Tuesday morning, then
continue Southeastward across the remainder of Southcentral,
Kodiak Island, and the Gulf Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
night. The cold air advection could lead to a brief burst of snow,
including in Anchorage and the Mat Valley, but it won't last long
enough to accumulation much. The bigger story will be the ramping
of gap winds across the region as the cold dense air moves over
and through the mountains. Several wind Watches/Warnings/Advisories
have been issued to highlight the areas of strongest winds and
likely impacts (including power outages, blowing snow, and
difficult travel conditions). Bottom line, cold and windy
conditions settling in across the region and continuing through
Wednesday.

There are a lot of similarities between the weather pattern
observed late last week and the one moving in over the next couple
days, with a strong short-wave (and accompanying Arctic air)
digging southeast across Southcentral and a low forming in the
northeastern Gulf. However, there are some noteworthy differences
which affect the forecast. The airmass is quite a bit colder and
covers a larger area - encompassing nearly all of Alaska by
Wednesday morning. 850mb temperatures for Southcentral and Kodiak
Island and the western Gulf will bottom out at roughly -20 degrees
to -35 degrees Celsius. This will be reflected at the surface
with colder air temperatures and wind chills compared to last
week. In addition, the surface low in the northeastern Gulf (near
Yakutat) looks quite a bit stronger, meaning tighter surface
pressure gradients. While a lot of the gap winds will be of
similar strength to last week, some places could be a bit
stronger. For the larger Gulf coastal waters and offshore waters,
generally expect stronger winds. Most notably, expect hurricane
force wind and extreme rates of freezing spray for portions of
Shelikof Strait and the corridor from Kamishak Bay to the Barren
Islands. Lastly, a series of short-waves crossing Cook Inlet and
the northwestern Gulf will lead to a band of snow showers. There
is a chance that a band of snow showers could set up over southern
Cook Inlet down to Seldovia (and other nearby communities) and
produce locally heavy snowfall. Stay tuned, as it is hard to
pinpoint exactly where these bands will set up.

The upper low and trough will park itself over the northeast Gulf,
with little movement through Thursday. While winds will peak most
places sometime between Tuesday night and Wednesday night, coastal
gap winds will linger all the way through Thursday. Otherwise,
expect a prolonged period of very cold temperatures (sub-zero for
most areas).

-SEB

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

*A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Kuskokwim Delta,
 Western Kuskokwim Valley, and Western Capes until 10 PM this
 evening for total ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch
 and up to two inches of snow.

*A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Naknek, King
 Salmon, Iliamna, Nila Vela, Nanvarpak, and the northern Alaska
 Peninsula until 3AM Tuesday for snow accumulations up to one inch
 and ice accumulations around one tenth of an inch.

Discussion:

500 mb analysis shows that the ridge that has been anchored over
the North Pacific, Aleutians, and Southwest Alaska is beginning to
flatten and tilt more eastward as an arctic trough moves
southward. Only weak waves of energy can be seen streaming along
the mean flow between the trough and ridge over the Kuskokwim
Delta and Valley.

Very light mixed precipitation is still underway across Southwest
Alaska, mainly in the form of showers of freezing rain and
perhaps some sleet, as upper air analysis from the morning
soundings show a dry dendritic growth layer and a respectable warm
nose, with surface temperatures around the freezing mark or just
below. Looking at high resolution guidance, QPF amounts should be
rather light until precipitation comes to an end. As the arctic
trough moves overhead this evening and Tuesday morning, the column
will dynamically cool, any lingering precipitation will likely
transition into light snow for most areas, with any frozen
precipitation coming to an end by 3AM or so. The bigger story will
be the strength of the arctic air filtering in behind the trough.

Arctic air begins to surge across the region beginning midday
Tuesday to Tuesday afternoon, plummeting temperatures into the
single digits from north to south. By Wednesday morning, overnight
lows will bottom out near -20F, with wind chills approaching
40F below zero. This cold airmass will linger through the end of
the week. On Thursday, the northern fringes of a North Pacific low
will lift across the Aleutians, bringing gusty winds and a swath
of precipitation. The low will clash with the Arctic trough by
Thursday, creating a col in the middle of the Bering and locking
precipitation and the strongest winds to the Central and Western
Aleutians. This precipitation will mainly be snowfall. Some gap
winds could still affect the Alaska Peninsula due to large
temperature gradients.

-AM/JAR

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Friday through Monday)...

Only minor changes from previous discussion. Southwest and
Southcentral Alaska will be entrenched within a much colder
airmass over the latter half of next week. Behind a passing arctic
trough on Tuesday and Wednesday, single digit to below zero
temperatures will be widespread Thursday morning, with parts of
the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley seeing temperatures
as low as 20 below. Because we're moving into the later winter
months, the increasing diurnal cycle will likely play a role in
minimizing colder temperatures across Southcentral, though parts
of the Copper River Basin could still flirt with cold weather
advisory criteria within any clearing.

Gusty winds and gusty gap winds should be ongoing Thursday
morning across the Alaska Peninsula and for much of Southcentral.
Winds will slowly diminish into the latter half of the Thursday.
Beyond Thursday, weak troughing will remain from the ALCAN border
into Southwest Alaska. Winds will be milder Friday into the
weekend as flow become more zonal.

All of the active weather will flip to the Aleutians Friday into
the weekend as a North Pacific trough and several small waves
overspread the chain Friday into the weekend. Expect widespread
rain chances with the gustiest winds residing over the Western and
Central Aleutians. By late Saturday into Sunday, what remains of
a colder airmass over the interior will spill across Southwest
Alaska into the Bering before temperature moderate and warm late
Sunday and into Monday.

BL/DD

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through this
evening. Ceilings will start to drop overnight tonight ahead of an
approaching frontal system, likely dropping into MVFR range by
around 6z tonight. Areas of snow, possibly mixed with freezing
drizzle, are likely to move over the terminal early Tuesday
morning as ceilings and visibility continue to drop, possibly
reaching IFR range or lower at times. Gusty north winds will pick
up behind the frontal passage, but will most likely arrive after
the end of TAF period later on Tuesday.

&&