Gale Warning 191, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
530 AM AKST Mon Feb 23 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The dominant feature this morning continues to be the amplified
ridge extending from the North Pacific to the AKPEN and up into
southern Southcentral Alaska. As forecast, this ridge is beginning
to flatten in response to several systems impacting the western and
northern periphery of the ridge. Warm, and very dry air, has
accompanied the ridge as its axis shifts southeastwards, and the
airmass begins to work into the AKPEN and western Gulf. Although,
many locations over Southcentral are still seeing below normal
temperatures this morning, a few locations along the AKPEN and
central / eastern Aleutians have seen overnight temperatures jump
from the 30s to 40s and 50s and crashing dewpoints. The 12Z Cold Bay
sounding is a good indication of why a very strong inversion is
in place as the ridge axis moves through. This inversion has
temperatures just above the surface (~1000 ft) in the 50s with
dewpoints in the negative teens and 20s. Even a light surface wind
would be able to mix down some of those warmer, and drier,
temperatures. This warm and dry airmass will start to work into
Kodiak Island later this morning where the warmest temperatures
will be felt. Enough warm air will work into the western Gulf
to allow temperatures to climb into the upper 40s to near 50 for
Kodiak. Warmer temperatures will also work northwards over the
Kenai Peninsula and into southern portions of Southcentral before
being shunted southwards late tomorrow. Temperatures at lower
elevations will warm into the 20s and 30s, with much warmer air in
the 40s and 50s in the higher elevations. Unfortunately, this
warm-up will be brief with another Arctic airmass diving south
across Alaska by midweek.

Meanwhile, a series of upper level vorticity-maxima riding along the
top of the ridge will cross interior Southcentral today, leading to
light snowfall along the Alaska Range and spreading southward into
the northern Susitna Valley and northern Copper Basin. Cold air
advection and gradual amplification of the upper level flow will
cause snow to spread southward to the Talkeetna Mountains and
southern Copper Valley this afternoon and evening. The deep westerly
flow will favor the Wrangell Mountains and central to eastern Copper
Basin for snow accumulation. Winter Weather Advisories remain in
effect from Glennallen northeastward along the Tok Cutoff for the
heaviest snow and highest accumulation. Some very light snow may
make it down to Anchorage and the Mat Valley Monday night. The best
chance of some very light accumulation will be right along and near
the mountains. Though the airmass will be cooling as precipitation
arrives, there could be a mix with rain/freezing rain or drizzle to
start before changing over to all snow.

A series of much stronger short-waves will amplify the pattern
further Tuesday through Wednesday, with short-waves digging
southeastward across Southcentral. Similar to last week, very cold
Arctic air will surge across Southcentral and the Gulf Tuesday
through Wednesday. The initial arrival of the Arctic front Tuesday
morning will likely lead to areas of light snow. However, expect
drying out from west to east across the region through the day
Tuesday. The biggest impact will once again be the winds. Similar to
last week, the low level flow will be out of the northwest, which
will initially favor Kodiak Island and the western Gulf as well as
Seward and Whittier for some of the strongest winds. As a low
settles over the northeast Gulf (near Yakutat) Wednesday, winds will
really ramp up in Valdez/Thompson Pass and the Copper River Delta.
As winds first arrive, blowing snow and reduced visibilities will be
a threat, especially for locations which receive fresh snowfall
(including the Copper Valley). This airmass looks even colder than
the one that moved in last week, so despite the widespread windy
conditions, would expect temperatures to fall more quickly. Single
digits to teens will be commonplace by Wednesday along with wind
chills dropping well below zero for much of the region.

- PP/SEB

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

*A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Kuskokwim Delta,
 Western Kuskokwim Valley, and Western Capes until 10 PM this
 evening for total ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch
 and up to two inches of snow.

*A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Naknek, King
 Salmon, Iliamna, Nila Vela, Nanvarpak, and the northern Alaska
 Peninsula from 11AM this morning to 3AM Tuesday for snow
 accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations around one
 tenth of an inch.

A strong ridge remains over much of Southwest Alaska, which is
allowing for widespread low stratus and fog to affect large parts
of the Bering Sea and the Southwest Mainland. A moisture plume
from the Pacific is moving up and around the ridge through the
Bering into the Southwest Mainland. This, combined with warm air
advection is causing mixed precipitation to the Kuskokwim Delta.
The ridge will become compressed as upper troughs put pressure on
it from the north and northwest. This will open up Bristol Bay and
the Alaska Peninsula to mixed precipitation late this morning.
Freezing rain will initially fall this morning, transitioning into
rain by the afternoon hours when temperatures rise above
freezing.

An Arctic trough will drop south starting Monday evening. This
will deliver a very cold air mass into the Southwest mainland. By
Tuesday morning, winds will become northerly and temperatures
will start rapidly decreasing, allowing lingering precipitation to
quickly transition to snowfall. By Tuesday afternoon,
temperatures in the Kuskokwim Delta and Valley will drop into the
single digits and negatives and by night, the negative teens.
Bristol Bay will also become much colder, reaching the negatives
by early Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be dry and cold due to
the Arctic air mass. On Thursday, the northern side of a low will
lift into the Aleutians, bringing gusty winds and a swath of
precipitation. The low will clash with the Arctic trough by
Thursday, creating a col in the middle of the Bering and locking
precipitation and the strongest winds to the Central and Western
Aleutians. This precipitation will mainly be snowfall. Some gap
winds could still affect the Alaska Peninsula due to large
temperature gradients.

-JAR

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Thursday through
Sunday)...

Southwest and Southcentral Alaska will be entrenched within a
much colder airmass over the latter half of next week. Behind a
passing arctic trough on Tuesday and Wednesday, single digit to
below zero temperatures will be widespread Thursday morning, with
parts of the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley seeing
temperatures as low as 20 below. Because we're moving into the
later winter months, the increasing diurnal cycle will likely play
a role in minimizing colder temperatures across Southcentral,
though parts of the Copper River Basin could still flirt with cold
weather advisory criteria within any clearing.

Gusty winds and gusty gap winds should be ongoing Thursday
morning across the Alaska Peninsula and for much of Southcentral.
Winds will slowly diminish into the latter half of the Thursday.
Beyond Thursday, weak troughing will remain from the ALCAN border
into Southwest Alaska. Winds will be milder Friday into the
weekend as flow become more zonal.

All of the active weather will flip to the Aleutians Friday into
the weekend as a North Pacific trough and several small waves
overspread the chain Friday into the weekend. Expect widespread
rain chances with the gustiest winds residing over the Western and
Central Aleutians. By late Saturday into Sunday, what remains of
a colder airmass over the interior will spill across Southwest
Alaska into the Bering before temperature moderate and warm late
Sunday.

BL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through this
evening. Ceilings will start to drop overnight tonight ahead of an
approaching frontal system, likely dropping into MVFR range by
around 6z tonight. Areas of snow, possibly mixed with freezing
drizzle, are likely to move over the terminal early Tuesday
morning as ceilings and visibility continue to drop, possibly
reaching IFR range or lower at times. Gusty north winds will pick
up behind the frontal passage, but will most likely arrive after
the end of TAF period later on Tuesday.

&&