Gale Warning 181, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
438 PM AKST Thu Feb 19 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Sunday)...

A high amplitude pattern is taking shape as a ridge builds across
the Bering Sea and a potent short-wave trough digs southeastward
across Southcentral and into the Gulf. Arctic air is surging
across Southcentral behind the Gulf while pressure gradients
tighten between the high in the Bering and a newly formed surface
low in the northeast Gulf (near Yakutat). This is resulting in
widespread strong and gusty gap winds, particularly across the
western Gulf/Kodiak Island waters and the north Gulf coast/Prince
William Sound waters. Temperatures have risen as winds have
developed, mixing down some warmer air above the surface. However,
this will be brief and temperatures will begin to steadily fall
as we head to the evening hours. Some clouds linger across the
region this afternoon with areas of very light snow in the Copper
River Basin. Skies will gradually clear this evening in the wake
of the upper short-wave as colder and drier air continues to
advect into the region.

The forecast for the next couple days is on track, with only minor
adjustments made to the wind and temperature forecast today. Most
notable, High Wind Watches were upgraded to Warnings for the
northeast end of Kodiak Island (including Kodiak City) and
Thompson Pass. As mentioned in previous discussions, this looks
like a borderline event for high winds (75 mph) in Thompson Pass,
with the low level cold air advection occurring tonight and upper
level support (in the form of passing vorticity-maxima and a
strong jet streak) not arriving until Friday through Friday night.
Based on the depth of the Arctic air and thermal gradients which
develop between the Copper River Basin and Valdez, it does seem
like there will be brief periods with 75 mph winds. Confidence
remains lower for the peak winds in Valdez, as the NNW to N low
level flow is not as favorable for high winds in Valdez. Thus,
have stuck with a Wind Advisory, thinking the strongest winds in
Thompson Pass will not mix down to Valdez.

One other notable change which started with this morning's
forecast is to strengthen winds in the Matanuska Valley Friday
night through Saturday. This will all be driven by low level
thermal and pressure gradients while upper level forcing is not
favorable (with the upper ridge building in from the west. Thus,
this will not be nearly as strong as the wind events back in
December.

With the coldest air settling into the Copper River Basin, issued
Cold Weather Advisories for the northern Copper River Basin from
Paxson over to Mentasta Pass and the Tok Cutoff. Gap winds through
the Alaska Range will persist all the way through Saturday leading
to wind chills as low as 45 below zero Friday night through
Saturday morning. Will keep an eye on other areas of the Copper
River Basin, but expect winds to die down as the coldest air
temperatures settle in.

Cold and windy conditions will be the big message through Saturday.
The upper ridge will then gradually build in from the west,
moving overhead on Sunday. This will cause winds to die down
across all but the favorable coastal gaps (which will at least
diminish significantly from their peaks). With the loss of wind,
radiational cooling will lead to some of the coldest temperatures
Saturday night and Sunday night. There is potential for high
clouds to move in Sunday as they round the top of the ridge.
Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail through the weekend.

-SEB

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA / BERING SEA / ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday night)...

An upper level ridge continues to build over the Bering Sea,
allowing relatively calm and dry conditions to prevail for much of
the region. A trough digging down over mainland Alaska is
bringing deep northerly flow to Southwest, dropping temperatures
and creating especially gusty conditions through bays and passes
of the Alaska Peninsula.

There is little change in the forecast for the near term
expectations heading into the upcoming weekend. A frontal system
stemming from an occluded low drifting towards Kamchatka will
begin to affect the western Bering and Aleutian Chain later today,
sending a corridor of southeasterly winds up to Storm force as it
moves past this evening. The initial warm front will weaken as it
lifts north and rides over the top of the strong ridge building
over the eastern Bering Sea. A trailing feed of tropical moisture
streaming in around the western side of the ridge will mainly
affect the western Aleutians, with periods of steady, moderate
rain likely for Shemya through Friday before shifting east to near
Adak through Saturday night.

While much of the Bering becomes anomalously warm over the next
couple days, much of Southwest will meanwhile be dealing with much
colder than average temperatures through the start of the
weekend. Strong northerly flow will intensify through Friday
between the ridge to the west and a deep trough carving its way
south into the Gulf and Northeast Pacific. This will allow Arctic
air to continue to advect southwards into the region, pushing
overnight lows into the -10s to 0s for the next few nights.
Intense gap flow will develop through mountain passes and out of
bays along the south side of the AKPen thanks to the impressive
low level and upper level northerly jet expected to develop near
Bristol bay and Kodiak Island through Friday. Storm force
sustained winds with Hurricane force gusts are likely out of bays
and passes east of Chignik late tonight through Friday, most
notably out of Wide Bay. Northerly gap winds will begin to weaken
by Saturday as northerly flow relaxes.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Monday through
Thursday)...

Beginning as early as Monday high pressure begins to break down
over the Bering. The big player in the longterm forecast will be
an arctic trough dropping southward through Alaska's interior and
eventually into the Gulf of Alaska Tuesday into Wednesday. Below
normal temperatures are forecast to overspread much of the region
by the middle of next week with models showing some areas across
Southcentral dropping to -20 degrees or colder, starting
Wednesday. With the colder airmass and strong northerly flow,
gusty gap winds are also anticipated from Kodiak Island up into
Prince William Sound. High winds will once again be possible as a
result.

Further west, forecast models are hinting at a shortwave trough
clipping the Kuskokwim Delta on Monday. Southwest flow on the
upstream side of the weakening ridge is expected to bring in
warmer temperatures, introducing a threat for mixed precipitation,
including freezing rain. The threat will overspread the Kuskokwim
Delta on Monday and then advance southward into the Greater
Bristol Bay region and King Salmon by Monday afternoon. Any mixed
precipitation will quickly transition back to all snow as an
arctic airmass overtakes the warmer temperatures late Monday
evening. The colder pattern is then forecast to persist from late
Monday through the end of the week.

BL

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevail with gusty northerly winds to 30 kts.
Gusts continue through Friday afternoon.

&&