Gale Warning 167, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
420 PM AKST Sun Feb 15 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Wednesday evening)...

A high amplitude ridge continues to build in the eastern Bering
Sea the rest of today and moves over Southwest Alaska late tonight
into Monday morning. At the same time, an upper-level shortwave,
currently over Northern Alaska, will drop south across
Southcentral Alaska late tonight into Monday. This southward
digging shortwave will bring an increase to gap winds through the
favored terrain and passes across Southcentral for Monday. Also
accompanying this shortwave will be some cold air advection. As
such, a Wind Advisory has been issued for Valdez from 3AM AKST
Monday through 6PM AKST Monday for strong wind gusts between 40 to
55 mph expected. Thompson Pass could also see some strong wind
gusts as well between 55 to 65 mph. Gap winds will slowly diminish
Monday evening as the ridge over Southwest moves over
Southcentral.

Quiet weather is anticipated for most of Tuesday and Wednesday as
two ridge axes move overhead then shift eastward. Behind the
first ridge axis, a weak front moves to the Southwestern Gulf late
Monday night to early Tuesday morning before shearing apart and
weakening further late Tuesday morning. Most precipitation with
this system looks to remain confined to Kodiak Island with maybe
some light snow spreading to the southern Kenai Peninsula Tuesday
morning. Precipitation is not expected to make it any farther
north than that. Kodiak City may get a light accumulation of snow
from this system as some guidance is advertising that they
maintain a north to north-northwest wind as opposed to a warmer
northeast wind off the water. This will be something to watch.
Accumulations across Kodiak should not be anymore than an inch or
two though. This system moves out late Tuesday morning as the
second ridge axis moves overhead with an inversion developing. The
forecast challenge for Tuesday evening into Wednesday will be low
stratus and potential fog development across the area. As this
ridge axis shifts through the day Wednesday, Southcentral re-
enters southwest flow. Another weak system may bring Southcentral
snow by Wednesday afternoon and evening; but confidence on the
evolution of this system is still very low.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA / BERING SEA / ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Wednesday)...

A strong storm is beginning to move north out of the North
Pacific into the forecast area, with a deep moisture plume pushing
north into the Aleutian Chain, evidenced by a large cloud shield
overtaking the Aleutians as of 3PM AKST. Meanwhile, generally
clear skies and calm conditions continue across the Southwest
Mainland. This aforementioned storm is moving north into the
Bering Sea, bringing strong winds and moderate to heavy rainfall
to the Aleutian Chain and Pribs. The associated system's front
will arrive to the Southwest Coastline tonight, bringing strong
winds and moderate to heavy snowfall. A Blizzard Warning has been
issued for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and areas north of Bethel, as
well as the Western Capes, and will take effect at 3AM Monday
morning, continuing through midnight AKST Monday. To the south
across the Northern Bristol Bay Coast, primarily along the Togiak
Bay Coastline (not including the area near Dillingham), conditions
will be generally less severe, though still impactful, so a
Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the same timeframe.

As the front approaches the Southwest Coastline, winds will shift
out of the east-northeast across the Interior, effectively
strengthening the eastward advancing frontal boundary, until
upper level support splits and diverges to the north and south,
leading to a rapidly weakening system as it moves inland late
Monday / early Tuesday for calmer and clearer conditions for a
short period of time.

Behind the front is another lesser, plume of moisture, associated
with weak dynamics and upper level support. This narrow moisture
plume will stretch from the Western Aleutians, through the
Pribilof Islands, to the Kuskokwim Delta by Tuesday afternoon.
Another round of snowfall is expected along with elevated wind
speeds for the Southwest Coast; rain is expected along the
Aleutians and mixed precipitation across the Pribilofs. It is
possible that blowing snow could impact the Kuskokwim Delta again
with this event; details forthcoming in next forecast packages.

AB/JAR

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Thursday through
Sunday)...

A trough digging across western Alaska on Thursday will drop
southward into the Gulf on Friday. The trough's passage will lead
to a highly amplified pattern across the region with a strong
ridge of high pressure building over the Bering and a deepening
trough over the Gulf of Alaska. An arctic airmass will accompany
the trough's passage, spilling into all of Southwest and much of
Southcentral Alaska. Scattered snow showers will be possible on
Thursday across Southwest Alaska and to a lesser extent across the
Copper River Basin. As such, below normal temperatures will be on
tap for both Southwest and Southcentral with the arrival of the
arctic airmass from the interior. A period of dry weather is
forecast from Friday into the the weekend, with clear skies and
strong radiational cooling likely to aid in dropping overnight
temperatures. In addition to the cooler weather, gusty gap winds
across the AKPEN and more likely the Gulf coast are forecast,
especially on Friday and Saturday. The denser and cooler air will
filter through the gaps and passes toward low pressure in the
Gulf. There is even some potential for high winds, though at
timing and intensity are far too uncertain to glean this far away
in the forecast.

BL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Occasional gusts up to 20 knots possible through this
evening. Winds are expected to become light for the overnight
period, but as winds shift northerly later Monday morning, an
occasional gust will be possible again through Monday afternoon.
VFR conditions are expected.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
347 PM AKST Sun Feb 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     Snow             Anchorage (Potter Valle 61.06N 149.76W
02/15/2026  M0.7 Inch        Anchorage          AK   Trained Spotter

            24 hour totals: 0.7 inches of wet snow and
            0.10 inches of liquid.

&&