Gale Warning 164, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
545 PM AKST Sat Feb 14 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Tuesday)...

A strong high amplitude ridge is centered over the North Pacific
with strong zonal flow over top of the ridge across the Bering Sea
and Alaska. A low amplitude short-wave trough is progressing from
west to east across Southcentral this afternoon, producing areas
of mostly light precipitation. Low level southwest to west flow is
focusing precipitation along the west sides of mountain ranges.
A look at this morning's 12Z sounding from Anchorage shows the
first 12,000 feet of the atmosphere were warmer than -10 degrees
Celsius. This is important because as the short-wave trough
approaches today, the upper level moisture quickly exited
eastward. The lower level clouds have a mixture of supercooled
water droplets (simply droplets that remain in the form of water
at temperatures below freezing) and ice crystals. During periods
of lighter precipitation, freezing drizzle has prevailed in the
Anchorage area while during periods of heavier precipitation it
has fallen as snow. Colder low level air is arriving from the west
which could help lead to more snow crystals in the clouds and snow
at the surface. Nonetheless, Winter Weather Advisories are in
effect to highlight a combination of snow and freezing drizzle
through the afternoon hours which could result in hazardous travel
along Anchorage area roads. Advisories also remain in effect for
Palmer up to Hatcher Pass and up the Glenn Highway to Sutton and
Chickaloon where somewhat heavier snow continues. With the arrival
of colder air, winds have begun to strengthen across the western
Gulf and Kodiak Island as well as the western Alaska Range and into
southern Cook Inlet/Kachemak Bay.

The upper level short-wave will exit quickly eastward this evening,
moving into the Yukon by Midnight. Precipitation will end from
west to east, ending around 6pm in the Anchorage and Mat-Su areas
and 9pm to Midnight in the Copper River Basin. Continued strong
westerly upslope flow could cause light freezing drizzle to linger
along the west side of the Chugach and Talkeetna Mountains.
However, ultimately expect the colder and drier air to win out
and end all precipitation.

The big story for the next few days will be colder temperatures
and strong gap winds along the coast. The first surge of cold air
advection across Southcentral tonight will kick up gap winds
along the Gulf coast and Prince William Sound. A series of
additional low amplitude short-waves embedded in the fast
westerly flow will cross Southcentral Sunday, reinforcing the
Arctic air and maintaining gap winds. With uniform west to
northwest flow through the atmosphere, there will be little
moisture to work with. THus, these short-waves will come through
mostly dry, with some mid to high clouds. There will be some light
snow along interior Southcentral mountains, but with little
accumulation.

Meanwhile, a deep low moving into the western Bering Sea Sunday
will cause amplification of a ridge over the eastern Bering Sea.
This ridge will further amplify Sunday night and Monday as it
shifts eastward toward western Alaska. As a result, a cold trough
up over northwest AK right now, will be forced southward and
across Southcentral Sunday night and Monday, bringing even colder
air with it. This will once again cause gap winds along the coast
to strengthen. The track of the short-wave (and area of strongest
cold air advection) will be across the Copper River Basin. This
will bring the strongest winds to Valdez/Thompson Pass and the
Copper River Delta on Monday. The lack of a deep surface low in
the Gulf in the one piece missing to make this a high end wind
event. Still, expect strong and gusty winds. The bottom line for
coastal areas: once winds getting going tonight they will keep
blowing through at least Monday, with some fluctuations in
strength as various short-waves and surges of cold air move
through. Meanwhile, much colder temperatures will settle over
the region, with each day colder than the previous.

The high amplitude ridge will then build into Southcentral from
west to east Monday through Tuesday, allowing gap winds to relax.
A strong front extending from the aforementioned western Bering
low will cross Southwest AK Monday night, headed for the western
Gulf and Southcentral. However, the presence of the ridge will
force the upper trough northward across western AK and the surface
front will elongate and rapidly weaken as it arrives in the Gulf
and Southcentral. Kodiak Island will likely see some light rain
Monday night into Tuesday, but it's looking like Southcentral
could stay completely dry.

-SEB

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Key Points:

*A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for areas along and
 north of a Merkoryuk-Toksook Bay-Bethel-Tuluksak line (along the
 Kusko Delta) and south along the Kilbuk Mountains for the period
 beginning tonight at 9PM and ending Sunday morning at 6AM. This
 is for a short duration snow and blowing snow event as winds tick
 up to 30-40 mph, before transitioning quickly east.

*A Blizzard Watch has been issued for the southwest coastline as a
 strong front, associated with a strong Bering Low, pushes inland
 Sunday night through late Monday. Impacts include moderate to
 heavy snowfall, wind gusts up to 45 mph and reduced visibilities
 down to a quarter mile. More details below.

A period of calm conditions and mostly clear skies is present
across most of the southwest Alaska mainland and the Aleutian
Chain as of 330PM AKST. To the west of the Pribs is a compact
upper level disturbance, that is not only retaining cloudy
conditions across the Bering Sea and Pribs, but will gain strength
enough this evening to bring a short burst of wind and snow to
the northern Kuskokwim Delta tonight. The main impact will be
reduced visibilities as blowing snow overspreads the area along
and north of a Merkoryuk-Toksook Bay-Bethel-Tuluksak line (along
the Kusko Delta) and south along the Kilbuk Mountains. This is a
quick-hitter and will transition quickly east.

Our attention then turns to the next system as a deep plume of
moisture moving out of the North Pacific gets sandwiched between
a low moving north and around the western side of the Aleutian
Chain, and a ridge of high pressure over the southern mainland.
The system that ensues will first impact the Aleutian Chain as
early as Sunday with cold rain and gusty winds, reaching the
Southwest Coast late Sunday into Monday. Its associated front will
lead the low across the Bering Sea, marching east and
strengthening before reaching the Southwest Coastline early
Monday. As the front progresses inland, it will be fortified by a
cold east-northeasterly flow coming out of the Alaskan Interior -
leading to periods of moderate to heavy snowfall, blowing snow as
winds gust to 45 mph, and reduced visibilities as low as a
quarter mile; a Blizzard Watch has been issued for this threat and
will be refined with upcoming forecast packages. Interestingly
enough, the front will weaken as it transitions inland, as upper
level support splits to the north and south, with snow tapering
off and winds diminishing quickly Tuesday.

AB

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Models are in fair agreement with the pattern through the end of
next week. A weak front moves through Southcentral Wednesday. This
will bring a chance for light snow across the region. After
Wednesday, a ridge builds in the Western Aleutians and Bering. A
shortwave moves into the Western Aleutians Thursday, which will
increase the chance for rain. This shortwave is broken up by the
building ridge though, which moves to the Central Aleutians by
Saturday.

As the ridge builds to the west, an Arctic trough digs southward
across mainland Alaska. This trough moves through Southwest Alaska
Wednesday and Thursday, which will increase the chance for light
snow across the Kuskokwim Valley. Southcentral looks to be dry as
the trough moves through. Constant northerly winds will cool
temperatures across the mainland through the end of the week. By
Friday, a vertically stacked low moves into the northern Gulf. The
primary concern with this will be gap winds through the Barren
Islands starting Thursday. Conditions for gusty gap winds on
Friday look favorable from Kodiak Island through the AKPen as
well. Gap wind chances persist into Saturday as the low continues
to move southeast.

PA

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...The majority of the upper level clouds and forcing has
passed through the area, but intermittent light snow is expected
through this evening. Conditions will remain between IFR and MVFR
through this evening before becoming VFR overnight.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
1030 PM AKST Sat Feb 14 2026

AKZ723-151030-
NW Kenai Peninsula-
Including the cities of Kenai, Soldotna, Sterling, and Nikiski
1030 PM AKST Sat Feb 14 2026

...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COOK INLET AND NORTHWEST
KENAI PENINSULA...

Areas of fog have developed and are drifting around over portions
of the northern Cook Inlet and northwest Kenai Peninsula this
evening. Some of these areas of fog have reduced visibility to
under a half mile at times as the fog drifts around. Give
yourself some extra time if driving, reduce your speed, and only
use your low beam headlights when traveling.