Gale Warning 161, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
531 AM AKST Sat Feb 14 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Message:

Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect through 6 PM today for
4 to 7 inches for the Lower Matanuska Valley, from Palmer
northward toward Hatcher Pass and 6 to 9 inches for the Upper
Matanuska Valley, including Sutton and Chickaloon.

Discussion:

Light radar echoes are beginning to spread across the Susitna Valley
and northern Cook Inlet this morning, and with ceilings dropping
below 2500-3000 ft expect light snow to start making it to the
surface across a good portion of the Susitna Valley within the next
hour or two. Snow will quickly spread over western Southcentral this
morning, but favored locations for the higher snowfall amounts will
be the western slopes of the Chugach and Talkeetna Mountains, and
the Alaska Range in the Copper River Basin. Overall, the forecast
remains on track with just some minor tweaks for timing. This system
will move through rather quickly with the heaviest snowfall expected
by late morning to early afternoon then quickly winding down by this
evening as the system pushes west. Given this, areas outside the
advisories will see lighter snowfall amounts of about 1 to 4 inches
for the Anchorage Bowl, Turnagain Arm, and northern Susitna Valley.
The western Kenai Peninsula will see a light dusting up to an inch
with the possibility of a period of rain and snow mix.

Today's snowfall is driven by a shortwave trough lifting north
across the Bering towards the Bering Strait this morning. Satellite
imagery indicates that the associated front has moved inland over
Southwest Alaska with the front looking to push through Bethel by
about 6 AM. This front is clearing the Southwest Alaska coast
several hours earlier than models are indicating. This front will
continue to translate eastwards as a secondary shortwave quickly
moves in behind to reinforce the front.

Cold air advection behind the cold front will lead to rapidly
strengthening gap winds, first across the western Gulf, southern
Cook Inlet, and Kodiak Island this afternoon and spreading to the
northern Gulf Coast and Prince William Sound by this evening.
There could be some localized areas of blowing snow, most notably
through Thompson Pass - though generally expect very light
accumulation for coastal areas prior to onset of winds which will
limit the amount of transportable snow.

There will be partial clearing of skies overnight tonight, but a
strong westerly flow aloft will bring additional short-waves into
Southcentral tonight through Sunday. These will low amplitude
short- waves with very little moisture to work with, so at most
there might be some upslope snow along the west sides of mountain
ranges with little to no snow accumulation. More than anything,
it will bring another round of clouds into the region. While
colder air settles over the region tonight, the presence of
clouds (and winds in some locations) will initially limit the
amount of cooling. Decreasing clouds Sunday through Sunday night
along with a reinforcing shot of cold air advection from Interior
AK will cool surface temperatures more significantly Sunday night
and into the early part of next week. With a high amplitude ridge
building upstream, a strong northerly jet and cold air advecting
from north to south will favor persistent gap winds along the
coast and high probability of strong winds in The Valdez/Thompson
Pass area. The exact placement of the ridge and axis of strongest
cold air advection will determine how strong those winds will be,
with a High Wind warning (75 mph) not out of the question for
Thompson Pass.

- PP/SEB

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A front is moving through the Southwest Mainland, bringing mixed
precipitation. The Kuskokwim Delta is seeing rain and snow
diminish as the front pushes eastward. Bristol Bay is seeing rain
or freezing rain depending on the location. Due to the continued
potential of freezing rain in Bristol Bay and the Aniak region,
Winter Weather Advisories remain in place through this morning. A
cold front will drop in from the north behind this front and
transition rain and freezing rain back to snow late in the morning
before the precipitation ends. Meanwhile, a large swath of rain
extends southwest-ward across the Pribilof Islands and the
Aleutian Chain as the precipitation shield transitions eastward.

Zonal flow sets in by the evening, allowing for calmer and drier
weather across Southwest Alaska and the Aleutians. A short burst
of snow will push into the Kuskokwim Delta as a low passes north
of the area Saturday night through Sunday morning. Confidence has
increased in this scenario as the track of the low has come into
better agreement. A broad ridge moves into Eastern Bering by
Sunday afternoon, allowing for continued drier and calmer weather.
However, behind the ridge is large front that will move in from
the North Pacific. This front will bring gusty southerly winds and
moderate precipitation along the Aleutians as the front pushes
eastward. Warm air advection will allow precipitation with the
front to transition to rain or rain/snow in the Aleutians. By
Monday evening, the front move into the Southwest Mainland,
bringing heavy snow. Temperatures in the mainland will likely stay
below freezing even with warm air advection, so precipitation
will remain snowfall for the event. The low where the front
originated from will move northward toward Chukotka and another
wave of moisture will be drawn from the North Pacific. This plume
of moisture will stretch from the Western Aleutians through the
Pribilof Islands to the Kuskokwim Delta. There is some uncertainty
on its exact placement, so impacts could vary.

-JAR/AB

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Tuesday through
Friday)...

Persistent ridging over the Pacific at times will extend into
Southwest Alaska through midweek but will be broken up by passing
shortwaves. A shortwave with a surface front moves from the
Aleutians/Bering Sea to Southwest AK Monday night into Tuesday,
which will bring moderate precipitation. This will be snow for
Southwest, with coastal areas of the Alaska Peninsula and
Aleutians seeing mixed precip/rain. This wave moves into
Southcentral Tuesday night into Wednesday, with chances for light
snow increasing as the wave moves through. A weak surface low
looks to develop in the northern Gulf Wednesday as it quickly
moves east, which may increase gap winds through the Barren
Islands.

After Wednesday models trend towards a ridge building over the
Aleutians and southern Bering. This coincides with an Arctic
trough digging southwards across mainland Alaska Wednesday through
Friday. Outside of the Aleutians, temperatures across southern
Alaska will cool after Wednesday. Models differ on exact timing of
the trough, the strength of the ridge, and chances of
precipitation Wednesday-Fiday across Southcentral. These details
will become more clear in the coming days.

PA

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions expected early this morning transitioning to
a light snow as early as 15Z, dropping cigs and vis to MVFR and
eventually IFR later in the morning. Patchy fog near the terminal
this morning. 1.5 to 3 inches of snow is expected. Precipitation
will come to an end by 03Z, with skies clearing out by the early
evening. Cooler and drier period coming late this weekend into
early next week.

&&