Gale Warning 154, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
420 PM AKST Thu Feb 12 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Sunday evening)...

The upper-level shortwave that brought snow to the Western Kenai
Peninsula earlier this morning is continuing to lift across the
area this afternoon and tonight. Where there is enough clearing,
low stratus and fog formation are likely. However, as the
shortwave previously described continues moving east, any low
stratus or fog could precipitate out in the form of light snow.
This is especially true for portions of the Copper River Basin,
the Mat-Su Valley, and Anchorage. Any snow that does fall would
not add up to much. Despite the slight snow chance, expect mostly
quiet weather across Southcentral tonight and Friday. The only
thing of note will be an increase in gaps winds through
Whittier/Passage Canal, Seward/Resurrection Bay, Valdez Narrows,
and Thompson Pass. There may even be some snow (already fallen)
blowing around in Thompson Pass at times tonight into Friday.
Visibility is not expected to be significantly reduced.

The next weather-maker moves in for Saturday as a shortwave from
the Bering Sea moves eastward and overhead. Light snow is expected
to begin across the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and Mat-Su
Valleys by late Saturday morning and advance eastward across the
rest of Southcentral through the day. Southerly to south-
southwesterly flow ahead of this shortwave will promote enhanced
snow through the Matanuska Valley, Hatcher Pass, and the
Anchorage/Eagle River Hillsides. Due to how progressive the
weather pattern is though, snow will not hang out long over the
area. Overall, anticipate a few inches of snow falling across
Anchorage (in the 1 to 3 or 2 to 4 inch range) with a few more
inches possible due to the favorable flow pattern for Palmer to
Chickaloon as well as the Anchorage and Eagle River Hillsides (4
to 6 inches). Trends for the Kenai Peninsula are for lower snow
totals up to an inch through Saturday evening with the exception
of Portage/Whittier seeing up to 1 to 3 inches, as well as the
Copper River Basin. Behind this system, cold air advection ensues
for Saturday night into Sunday with gap winds through the favored
terrain and passes ratchet back up. Stay tuned to the forecast as
snow totals for Saturday are further refined.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Key Points

* Blizzard Warning: ENDED

 - The warning for the Western Capes, YK Coast and YK Delta
   expired. Winds, still gusty with reduced visibilities, will
   continue to weaken and conditions will improve.

* Winter Weather Advisory: STARTING FRIDAY MORNING

 - Incoming snow transitioning to rain will impact much of the
   AKPEN and SW Friday morning into Saturday. The first, of two
   instances, will bring widespread snow showers through Friday
   afternoon. These snow showers may see snow accumulation rates
   of 1/2" to 1" an hour through the early afternoon. This will be
   followed by a mix and transition to rain through Saturday
   morning.

On the surface map this afternoon, low pressure that has been the
main weather feature all week has finally moved inland across
Bristol Bay. On the back side of this low, cold temperatures with
snow, wind and visibility reductions impacting much of the YK
Delta Coast. Across the central Aleutians, weak ridging is moving
towards the east, while a deepening low moves towards Kamchatka
with a front set to sweep the Aleutians.

The front sweeping across the Aleutians will bring rain to much
of the Aleutians tonight and tomorrow. As it moves east, it will
start to be colder air, eventually turning the rain to snow as it
impacts areas from Nelson Lagoon and east. The snow should be
relatively quick as it is in and out 4 to 6 hours later. With
little wind and moderate snowfall, blowing snow should not be a
concern. Following the snow will be a pretty significant lull in
activity, before temperatures start to rise, winds increase and
the rain begins. The rain should be through Dillingham/King Salmon
by early Saturday morning and beyond Iliamna by the late
afternoon. The forecast gets a little more challenging the farther
north we are. Somewhere between Kipnuk and Quinhagak will be a
transition zone, where the majority of precipitation will fall as
some form of a mix. South of that area, rain showers, and north,
potentially heavy snow. The layout of the Kusko River is the
current dividing line between rain and snow. The challenge is
where this all truly sets up. As this system is thousands of miles
away, the pattern by tomorrow may shift, bringing that line north
or south. Depending on where this line sets up, we may need to
focus more on heavier snows where it may remain below freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Monday through
Thursday)...

Persistent upper level ridging looks to remain anchored in the
Pacific through the middle of next week with troughing over
northwestern Canada. At times throughout the week, ridging will
extend into Southwest and Southcentral Alaska. Shortwaves will
make attempts to break ridging down throughout the week. The
highest confidence is Monday-Tuesday as a wave moves out of the
Aleutians through Southwest and Southcentral Alaska. Chances for
light to moderate precipitation are highest Monday for the
Aleutians as rain and early Tuesday for Southwest Alaska as snow
with some mixed precip along the Bristol Bay coast. Some light
precipitation may spill into Southcentral Tuesday, though chances
for precipitation are low except for Kodiak Island.

After Tuesday morning models agree on a progressive pattern of
shortwaves moving along the ridge, but diverge on both the timing
and location of shortwaves and the position of the ridge.
Slight chances for precipitation continue midweek for the
Aleutians and Southwest as waves pass through. Though temperatures
next week will be cooler compared to this week across Southwest
and Southcentral, this pattern should prevent hazardous cold
temperatures from moving in. Details of midweek shortwave timing
and positioning of the ridge will become more clear in the coming
days.

PA

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...The main challenge will be the persistent stratus and
possibility for fog. Light southwesterly flow at or just above the
surface will likely keep the stratus around. The low stratus
persisting is more likely than low visibilities in fog for
tonight into tomorrow morning as fog will be less favorable with
the stratus preventing efficient radiational cooling. By tomorrow
afternoon, low level winds should shift back to the north and VFR
conditions should prevail.

&&