Gale Warning 152, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
343 AM AKST Thu Feb 12 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday evening)...

An inverted trough situated over the Kenai Peninsula overnight
brought an area of moderate to heavy snow from Homer to Kenai and
Big Lake through early this morning. The trough is weakening this
morning as the upper-level support shears apart, a result in a
potent upper-level low continues to move east toward the Alaska
Panhandle and the diffluence aloft providing the lift for the
development of snow showers diminishes. Still, a chance for snow
showers across northern Cook Inlet east to the Anchorage Bowl and
Matanuska Valley will remain through tonight as a shortwave over
the Southwest Alaska coast slides east today.

The bigger challenge in the short term will be the development
and extent of low stratus and fog tonight through Friday night.
The aforementioned shortwave will advect some colder and drier air
along with a westerly shift in the winds aloft, suggesting a
general trend in clearing skies. However, weak flow near the
surface and some weak vorticity advection may result in stubborn
low cloud cover and/or fog across the Anchorage Bowl, Matanuska
Valley, and Copper River Basin overnight tonight and again Friday
night into Saturday morning. The shortwave trough will move over
Southcentral tonight, quickly followed by a second on Friday.
These features may even allow for some flurries or very light snow
if, indeed, there is lingering cloud cover and moisture from the
most recent snow event.

The eastward progression of the shortwave troughs, coupled with
cold air advection, will also result in the development of gusty
winds winds through the favored gaps and passes such as Thompson
Pass, Resurrection Bay, and Passage Canal through Friday. The next
weather-maker arrives for Saturday as a Bering system pushes
inland of Southwest Alaska and over Southcentral Alaska. Snow is
looking likely across most locations with some rain/snow mix
potential near the coast. Stay tuned to the forecast for further
updates regarding Saturday's system.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

The large Bering Sea low is finally pushing onshore over Southwest
Alaska and will continue weakening. Light snow showers will
continue drifting eastward across Southwest Alaska through today,
with some colder air pushing in on the backside. Some light
blowing/drifting snow is possible along the coast this morning as
gusty winds slowly diminish, though falling snow is expected to
taper off early this morning. By this afternoon and evening, weak
ridging will bring further calm to the mainland with pockets of
blue sky showing before sunset.

Moving into the weekend, the next weather maker will slide across
the Bering from west to east. This all stems from a low barreling
towards Kamchatka. Extending south and east from this low is a
rather expansive occluded front that will eventually develop a
triple point low near St. Paul. Warmer air is expected to
accompany the front, to once again shove the colder air mass out
and bring warmer temperatures across the Bering and Southwest
Alaska. Winds and rain are expected across the Aleutian Chain,
with gales near Shemya diminishing to small craft as they cross
the Central Aleutians. However, a secondary low gets pulled north
out of the North Pacific towards the Central/Eastern Aleutians
Friday/Saturday, bringing stronger winds to the Eastern Aleutians
and Alaska Peninsula, with some models hinting at storm force
gusts, though uncertainty remains. The weekend will see the
return to unsettled weather as precipitation of many forms will
move back over land.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Sunday through
Wednesday)...

Persistent upper level ridging looks to remain anchored in the
Pacific with shortwaves rounding the top of the ridge axis this
weekend into early next week. A low pressure system and its
accompanying front move through Southwest Alaska Saturday. The
main threat with this system at this time looks to be the
potential for moderate snowfall across interior Southwest Alaska,
rain mixing with snow along the coast, and rainfall across the
Alaska Peninsula. This system crosses the AKPen and moves into the
Gulf Saturday night and quickly continues toward Southeast Alaska
on Sunday. With slight weakening as it crosses the AKPen and a
deepening shortwave, there is an increased chance for snowfall
across Southcentral Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure
under a Bering ridge moves in behind the low which tightens the
pressure gradient in the southern AKPen and Barren Islands. This
will increase the chance for gusty northwesterly gap winds Sunday
into Monday.

The Bering ridge moves over Southcentral Monday before a second
progressive shortwave moves through the AKPen and breaks it down
Monday night. This brings increased chances for precipitation
Monday across Southwest and Tuesday across coastal Southcentral. A
surface low develops in the western Gulf Tuesday, resulting in
another tight pressure gradient which will increase the chance for
gusty northwesterly gap winds from the AKPen through the Barren
Islands. Models continue ridging over the Pacific through midweek
with weak waves traversing over the Aleutian Chain. However, there
is divergence on the timing of waves over the Aleutians and the
movement of an Arctic trough southwards from northern Alaska.
These details will become more clear in the coming days.

PA

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...MVFR to IFR conditions expected through the early morning
hours, then VFR conditions will prevail by late this morning and
early this afternoon. Snow showers are expected to continue to
move through the region through the morning hours, clearing out by
the afternoon. Wind speeds will shift southeasterly by the late
morning, but will remain light. Low stratus and fog may develop
tonight, potentially dropping conditions to IFR at times.

&&

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