Gale Warning 128, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
604 PM AKST Thu Feb 5 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Saturday night)...

A dissipating front and trough axis is producing widespread rain
showers along the coast for Cordova, Prince William Sound
locations, and as far south as Kodiak Island. 500 mb analysis
reveals a remnant upper low lifting northward over Southwest
Alaska. The upper flow is southerly in the wake of this feature
with several shortwaves rippling through the mean flow and moving
north as they do so, so generally expect clouds and a few very
light "spillover" showers to hang around in lee of the Chugach
through the rest of today. There is some degree of a Turnagain Arm
wind this afternoon, though the general down inlet flow should
shelter the Anchorage Bowl - however, isolated gusts up to 25 mph
could just clip the area, especially on the southwest side of
Anchorage.

Friday should be relatively quieter across the area with more sun
as a transient upper level ridge works its way across the region.
Clearer skies for the overnight hours also means the surface can
more efficiently radiate out, so expect overnight lows to be
colder than the past couple of nights and largely below freezing.
By the end of Friday, a new surface low enters the Gulf and
retrogrades westward as its attendant front pushes northward
across the central Gulf. Models are in pretty solid agreement with
the progression of the low and front, and have the front nearing
the Gulf coast and Kodiak Island Saturday morning. This front will
suffer the same fate as the last and will shear apart as it
stalls along the coast. That said, warmer air will again move off
the Gulf leading to low elevation rain and mountain snow, though
snow levels look like they will be lower than they currently are -
roughly in the 1000 to 1500 foot range above sea level. The lack
of strong cross barrier flow across the coastal mountains means
some light precipitation will likely spread inland Saturday
through Saturday night. At this point in time, confidence for
which areas will see precipitation is low. In addition, there is
quite a bit of uncertainty in how much warm air makes it over the
coastal mountains and whether precipitation will fall as snow or a
mix of rain (or freezing rain) and snow. Stay tuned.

-AM/SEB

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3:)...

*** Winter Weather Advisory for Pribilof Islands through 7AM
 Friday ***

A mix of freezing rain and snow continues to be reported from St.
George and St. Paul today as a Bering Sea low moves just west of
the Pribilof Islands. Northerly and northeasterly wind gusts
between 30 and 40 mph overnight into this afternoon have reduced
visibility to as low as 1 1/2 mile causing periods of reduced
visibility. These conditions will persist through this evening.
Slowly overnight, the precipitation will lighten and winds will
decrease through tomorrow morning. High temperatures will remain
nearly stationary around 32 degrees through Saturday with lows in
the upper 20s/lower 30s.

Multiple shortwaves have brought wind gusts between 20 and 30 mph
and scattered snow and rain showers to the Alaska Peninsula and
Bristol Bay coastline through the evening. These conditions will
subside overnight with drier conditions expected tomorrow and
Saturday. Precipitation working its way northward in the form of
light snow and freezing rain is possible overnight and into early
tomorrow morning in the Kuskokwim Delta. Northerly flow continues
to impact Unalaska, Adak and Atka with gusty northerly winds and
snow showers through tomorrow leading to periods of reduced
visibility

By the start of the weekend, a strong Kamchatka low will begin
to impact the region. Expect gale to storm force winds as its
front marches across the western and central Aleutians on
Saturday. A vigorous trough rotating around the aforementioned
parent low will rapidly deepen as it barrels across the Aleutian
Chain and into the Bering Sea on Sunday. This is followed by yet
another very strong low looking to cross the Aleutians on Monday.
Confidence increases for a windy and wet weekend and week ahead
for the Aleutians, Bering Sea, and Southwest Alaska.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Monday through
Thursday)...

Starting in the Gulf of Alaska, a once complex low pressure system
looks to weaken and open into a trough centered over the Southern
Gulf. The core of energy looks to be exiting to the east by Monday
morning, leaving Southcentral Alaska in a unsettled pattern
through Tuesday morning. By Tuesday morning, a front moving over
the Western Alaska Range with some of the model guidance
suggesting a low to form near Kodiak Island then tracking
northeast into mainland Southcentral. Agreement seems fair at this
point for a low to develop. The expected track into Southcentral
may shift, with the general expectation currently being the low
moving over Kenai Tuesday night. A subsequent front moving over
the Alaska Peninsula Tuesday, may develop another low pressure
system near Kodiak again by late Tuesday/early Wednesday.
Progression of this system is still uncertain, with some solutions
intensifying the low in the northern Gulf through Thursday night.

Looking out west, several low pressure systems associated with the
aforementioned frontal boundaries will enter the Bering Sea early
next week. By Monday morning, the first low pressure system
appears to be located over the Central Bering, with the exact
position being just west of the Pribilof Islands or east. By
Monday afternoon, the low may shift northward with some solutions
bringing a slightly weakened feature into Southwest Alaska. At
the same time, a new stronger low pressure system will have
crossed the Aleutians near Adak. This has potential to produce
another round of moderate to heavy rain for the Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula in addition to further potential for strong wind
gusts in excess of 75 mph. By Tuesday morning, model agreement
begins to degrade significantly, with several schools of thought.
Some solutions exit the low to the northern Bering by Wednesday
morning, while some solutions take the core of the low center
directly over Nunivak Island, which would promote potentially
highly impactful weather for the Kuskokwim Delta and the Greater
Southwest coast beginning as early as Tuesday morning.

Weak agreement for yet another low pressure system entering the
Southwest Bering by Thursday morning.

CL/LM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will mostly
persist. However, a weak Turnagain Arm wind from the southeast may
clip the airport this evening before returning to light and
variable overnight into Friday morning. The bulk of southeast
winds will remain over the Arm.

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period.
Ceilings may drop to the 5000 foot level as southeasterly flow
aloft weakens somewhat and becomes more southerly the rest of this
afternoon and into the evening hours. A shower or two spilling
over the mountains this afternoon into this evening is possible
with the weakening and more southerly flow aloft. However, the
terminal should largely remain dry through the TAF period.

&&