Brisk Wind Advisory 99, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
520 AM AKDT Thu Apr 9 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Saturday)...

With our latest low departing but two more troughs on the way,
expect alternating days of nice vs. unsettled weather as these
features move through. For today, generally improving conditions
as showers taper off and pockets of clearer sky develop. Some
areas of lower clouds and fog may linger through the morning. By
evening, a tightening surface pressure gradient along the coast
will induce gusty offshore winds along the Gulf coast for
locations like Seward, Whittier, and Valdez. One aspect of the
forecast that's a bit more challenging is the potential for fog
and low stratus tonight into early tomorrow morning along Cook
Inlet and in valley locations. While higher surface pressure and
weak winds support fog formation, there's a question of whether
high clouds streaming in ahead of the first trough will disrupt
radiational cooling and fog formation.

Forecast confidence is much higher regarding precipitation chances
tomorrow, as the first of our two troughs moves in from the west.
Compared to yesterday, models have been trending stronger with
this front. As such, precipitation chances have increased from
Mat-Su down through Anchorage and the Kenai Peninsula. With
precipitation set to fall from late morning through the afternoon,
much of the precipitation will likely come in the form of rain.
Even if any snow falls, surface temperatures will be too warm to
support much accumulation at the lower elevations. The front
weakens as it treks eastward, with little to no precipitation
forecast by the time it reaches Copper River Valley or Prince
William Sound.

Drier, but mostly cloudy, conditions return for Saturday, though
the next trough will begin moving in later that afternoon. Kodiak
Island and Western Susitna will be the first locations to see
precipitation as the front moves through Saturday afternoon and
evening. As the upper trough progresses, it develops a surface
low in the northern Gulf that will bring more widespread
precipitation to Mainland Southcentral from Saturday evening into
early Sunday morning.

-KC

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Currently, a ridge is moving through the Southwest Mainland,
allowing patchy fog and low stratus to affect the region. Behind
the ridge out west is a front moving through the Bering. This is
bringing a line of small craft winds and a mix of rain and snow to
the Aleutians and Pribilof Islands. The front will push inland by
this afternoon, bringing snowfall and/or a mix of snow and rain,
depending on temperatures, to the Southwest Mainland. Though wind
speeds will be elevated along the Kuskokwim Coast, significant
blowing snow is not expected due to temperatures being just below
freezing. Behind this front is yet another front from a Kamchatka
low moving into the Western Aleutians. Gale force winds and
precipitation mostly in the form of rain impacts the Western
Aleutians by Thursday night/early Friday. This front will quickly
weaken as it traverses through the Bering, with winds speeds
dropping below small craft and precipitation becoming light by the
time the front reaches the East Bering early Saturday. The front
gets a second wind as it moves over the mainland due to a strong
upper trough catching up with it and enhancing precipitation. This
precipitation will likely be a mix of rain and snow.

-JAR

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

The long term begins on Sunday with a continuation of the
amplified upper-level weather pattern consisting of a trough
digging across the eastern half of the Bering and a ridge
downstream extending the northeastern Pacific northward across the
Al-Can border.

By Sunday, there is already some notable differences between the
various deterministic model runs, although all do show a digging
upper-level trough with its axis extended south over the Alaska
Peninsula. The biggest difference is in the placement of two
shortwave troughs embedded within the flow near the base of the
longwave trough. The GFS has a more pronounced wave lifting north
across western Alaska with the ridge downstream slightly stronger
and more stationary. This lends to a second shortwave digging
farther south across the AKPen and developing a much stronger
surface low closer to Kodiak than the ECMWF and Canadian solutions
which have a weaker wave and weaker, faster moving low in the
Gulf.

By Monday, this upper-level wave is moving east toward the Alaska
Panhandle. Again, guidance diverges on the exact track of the
associated surface low, with the GFS solution keeping a stronger
low centered over the central Gulf and the ECMWF and Canadian
solutions showing a weaker low somewhere along northern Gulf coast
between Cordova and Yakutat. Nonetheless, the result will be an
increase in gap winds for the AKPen, Kodiak Island, and the BArren
Islands in the wake of the low as colder air advects southeast
from the eastern Bering.

By late Monday, expect a repeat of the weather pattern, with a
transient upper-level ridge upstream moving over the state for
late Monday into Tuesday as another area of low pressure develops
near Kamchatka with its front moving quickly across the Bering
Sea Tuesday and into Southwest Alaska for Wednesday as the
amplified pattern becomes a bit more zonal.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC... VFR conditions will prevail with ceilings remain above
3000 ft AGL. Winds will shift from northerly this morning to west-
northwest by the afternoon.

&&