Severe Thunderstorm Warning 228, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1243 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1242 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact many lower elevations of
  New Mexico through at least Tuesday. Record heat likely on
  Monday in much of western and central New Mexico.

- Isolated showers and storms today and Monday will become
  scattered Tuesday through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1242 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Yesterday's convection aided by a northerly jet streak has pushed
moisture southward into Mexico and dry air is working its way in
behind it. This will result in sparse convective activity today,
especially for early August. Showers and a few storms will favor the
southwest mountains, with lesser coverage over the northern
mountains. This will make it a hot, sunny day in most areas, with
high temperatures approaching daily records.

The center of the monsoon high will shift eastward on Monday,
centering itself over western NM. It will also bring some dry air
with it so shower and storm coverage will only be isolated once
again. 500 mb heights are forecast to be around 595 dam at the most,
but the drier air (dewpoints in the 30s and 40s) will allow
temperatures to warm quite a bit during the afternoon hours. High
temperatures are currently forecast to break daily records in
Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Los Alamos, and Farmington among others on
Monday. Remarkably, August record highs will be challenged in
Farmington and Albuquerque as well. Much of western and northern NM
will have Major HeatRisk and so Heat Advisories were issued for much
of these areas. Despite high temps in the low 100s, Heat Advisories
were not issued for eastern NM, where the criteria is a tad higher.
The dry air will allow for a large diurnal temperature fluctuation,
so most areas should be able to cool off nicely Monday night, with
lows generally in the 60s and low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1242 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

The monsoon high remains in place over western NM on Tuesday where
temps will once again threaten records. It will be a tad cooler
across the northeast thanks to the passage of a weak backdoor front.
Moist, upslope flow in the wake of the front will increase the
coverage of convection along the central mountain chain and
eventually central NM during the evening hours. The monsoon high
will slowly shift off to the northwest mid to late week, allowing
for modest moisture increases across central and southern New
Mexico. Storm coverage will trend up slightly, with scattered
coverage each afternoon and evening, favoring the high terrain of
western and northern NM. PWATs at KABQ will hold steady right around
the seasonal average (~0.9"), with slightly less moisture across the
northwest where storm coverage will be less. From Wednesday onward,
temperatures will drop below record levels, but it will still remain
hot with temperatures generally 5 to 10 degrees above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1112 AM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period.
Isolated convection over the high terrain of western and northern
New Mexico may produce a few gusty outflow boundaries, but overall
coverage and intensity of convection will be low. Storms will move
off the high terrain from north to south at around 10 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1242 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through next
weekend. Near record to record heat is expected the next couple of
days as the monsoon high shifts into western New Mexico. This will
also bring unusually dry air into the western half of the state,
with afternoon humidities generally between 10 and 15 percent.
Temperatures drop slightly and humidities increase slightly from
Tuesday onward, but it will still be hotter and drier than normal
for the middle of monsoon season.

Isolated storms today and Monday become scattered Tuesday onward.
The southwest high terrain will have the best chances for rain most
days, with much spottier wetting rainfall in the lower elevations of
central and western NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  65 101  64 101 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  56  96  56  97 /  10   5   0   0
Cuba............................  61  95  61  94 /  10   0   0   5
Gallup..........................  60  97  60  96 /   0   0   5   5
El Morro........................  58  92  58  92 /   5   5  10  20
Grants..........................  61  96  61  95 /   5   5   5  20
Quemado.........................  62  93  61  92 /   5   5  20  20
Magdalena.......................  66  93  65  93 /   5  10  10  20
Datil...........................  59  90  60  90 /  20  20  20  40
Reserve.........................  60  97  60  96 /  10  30  20  50
Glenwood........................  63 100  64  99 /  30  40  20  70
Chama...........................  55  90  55  90 /  10  10   0  10
Los Alamos......................  66  92  66  91 /  10  20   0  30
Pecos...........................  59  95  60  90 /  10  10   5  40
Cerro/Questa....................  57  92  56  89 /  10  10   5  40
Red River.......................  50  83  50  81 /  10   5   5  70
Angel Fire......................  43  87  42  82 /  10  10  10  70
Taos............................  60  95  60  93 /  10  10   5  30
Mora............................  56  93  56  86 /  10  20  10  60
Espanola........................  67 100  67  98 /  10  10   0  20
Santa Fe........................  62  95  62  92 /  10  10   0  30
Santa Fe Airport................  63  97  63  95 /  10  10   0  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69 101  69  98 /  10   0   0  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  72 101  72  99 /  10   0   5  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  70 104  70 101 /   5   0   5   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  70 103  71 100 /   5   0   0   5
Belen...........................  69 103  69 101 /   0   0   5   0
Bernalillo......................  69 104  69 101 /  10   0   0  10
Bosque Farms....................  67 103  67 100 /   0   0   5   5
Corrales........................  69 104  70 101 /  10   0   0  10
Los Lunas.......................  66 103  66 100 /   0   0   5   0
Placitas........................  68 100  69  97 /  10   5   0  20
Rio Rancho......................  70 103  71 100 /  10   0   0  10
Socorro.........................  73 104  73 103 /   0   0   5   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  64  96  65  91 /  10   5   0  30
Tijeras.........................  65  97  65  94 /  10   0   0  30
Edgewood........................  63  98  63  94 /  10   5   5  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  57  99  58  95 /  10   5  10  20
Clines Corners..................  62  95  63  89 /  20  10  10  10
Mountainair.....................  64  97  64  94 /   5  10  10  20
Gran Quivira....................  63  94  63  93 /   5   5  20  20
Carrizozo.......................  69  94  70  96 /   0  10   0  20
Ruidoso.........................  62  87  63  88 /   0  20   0  30
Capulin.........................  60  93  59  82 /  10  30  20  40
Raton...........................  56  97  57  88 /  10  30  20  50
Springer........................  57  99  58  90 /  10  20  20  50
Las Vegas.......................  58  95  58  88 /  10  20  10  30
Clayton.........................  66 100  67  90 /   0  10  20   5
Roy.............................  64  98  65  89 /  10  20  20  10
Conchas.........................  70 103  71  98 /  10   5  20   5
Santa Rosa......................  68 102  68  96 /  10  10  20   0
Tucumcari.......................  69 104  71 100 /   5   0  10   0
Clovis..........................  67 100  69 100 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  68 101  70 101 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  70 102  72 100 /   5   0  10   0
Roswell.........................  71 104  72 103 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  67  98  68  97 /   0  20   5   0
Elk.............................  63  93  63  94 /   0  20   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-205.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for NMZ201-205-207-
211-212-217>221.

&&

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
413 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

NMZ208-022245-
Southwest Mountains NM-
413 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL CATRON COUNTY
UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 413 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles east of Mogollon, or 26 miles south of Reserve, moving
southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Mainly rural areas of South Central Catron County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rains from severe thunderstorms can produce sudden and
dangerous flows in arroyos, ditches and over low water crossings. Do
not attempt to drive through areas where water covers the roadway.

&&

LAT...LON 3348 10858 3332 10845 3321 10863 3321 10872
      3337 10884
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 56DEG 8KT 3335 10861

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
504 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

NMZ208-209-022330-
Southwest Mountains NM-San Francisco River Valley NM-
504 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CATRON COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM MDT...

At 504 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mogollon, or 19 miles south of Reserve, moving southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Alma, Mogollon, Glenwood and Pleasanton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Heavy rains from severe thunderstorms can produce sudden and
dangerous flows in arroyos, ditches and over low water crossings. Do
not attempt to drive through areas where water covers the roadway.

&&

LAT...LON 3353 10886 3354 10884 3343 10866 3323 10885
      3339 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 43DEG 12KT 3343 10881

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 TO 55 MPH

44