Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1256 PM MST Fri Sep 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue today
mainly near and east of a line from Dudleyville through Tucson and
Nogales. Thunderstorms may linger longest overnight through
Graham, Greenlee, and Cochise counties. An isolated risk of strong
winds, large hail, heavy rain, and blowing dust will accompany
these thunderstorms. Dry air begins to push in Saturday with
thunderstorm chances lingering south and east of Tucson, with a
dry forecast on Sunday. Temperatures transition from below normal
this weekend to above normal next week with a modest return of
thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

An active thunderstorm day is expected to develop this afternoon
across much of southeastern Arizona, especially from central-
eastern Pinal/Pima to Santa Cruz and eastward. Healthy 1500-2500
J/kg of MLCAPE and 20- 30 knots of 0-6 km shear will produce an
environment capable of longer lasting individual thunderstorm
cells capable of damaging wind gusts, hail, and heavy rainfall.
With a deep upper level trough to the west, ample forcing/ascent
exists for thunderstorm development through the late evening and
lasting potentially through the overnight hours, especially in
eastern locations. Looking at the western edge of the environment
capable of these thunderstorms, mid-level moisture has pushed a
bit further west through Tucson compared to where it was just 24
hours ago (as indicated by the Advected Layered Precipitable Water
product). This will subsequently bring greater thunderstorm
chances further west than yesterday, including southward through
Nogales and north through central-eastern Pinal. Strong flow
oriented from southwest to northeast will push thunderstorms that
form over the Catalinas away from Tucson, so impactful storms
in Tucson will likely need to form to the west or south...if not
over town.

This weekend, the western trough will make its trek eastward across
the Four Corners region, dragging moisture mostly out of
southeastern Arizona with it. Moisture should linger in far
southeastern and eastern, keeping chances mainly to Cochise, Santa
Cruz, and southern Graham/Greenlee counties on Saturday. Then
Sunday moisture should push out enough to keep a dry forecast for
the day. With this trough crossing temperatures will dip below
normal for the weekend.

Following the trough passage, a ridge centered to the south is
expected to build and bring at least some moisture back into the
region early next week. There remains some discrepancies in how
well moisture returns, so chances remain modest and mainly to the
south and east of Tucson (in the 10-30 percent range on Tuesday).

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon near and east of
KTUS-KOLS through the afternoon and evening, with greater chances
in Graham, Greenlee, and Cochise counties. Should diminish in
western areas such as KTUS- KOLS after 13/04Z, lingering through
the overnight hours in eastern terminals such as KSAD- KDUG. An
isolated risk of wind gusts to 50 kts and large hail will
accompany any thunderstorm, along with very heavy rainfall and
mountain obscurations. Otherwise, SLY/SWLY SFC wind at 10-16 kts
with gusts to 20-25 kts thru 13/04Z. SFC wind less than 10 kts and
variable in direction at other times. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Minimum RH values will be in the 20-35 percent range
through Saturday, lowering into the 15-30 percent range Sunday and
Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected from the
Tucson area eastward today, with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms mainly for Cochise County and east Santa Cruz
County Saturday. Thunderstorms today will have a risk of very
strong gusty winds, large hail, and very heavy rainfall. Dry
area- wide Sunday, then a slight chance of thunderstorms south and
east of Tucson return again next week. Outside of thunderstorm
outflows, expect 20-foot winds to be 15 mph or less, with some
afternoon/early evening gusts to around 25 mph.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Public...Edwards
Aviation...Edwards
Fire Weather....Edwards

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