Severe Thunderstorm Warning 285, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
631 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

  - Thunderstorms ongoing this morning with severe risk persisting
    across much of E OK and NW AR. Low potential for additional
    thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall
    accumulations steadily increase, especially across NE OK and
    NW AR.

  - Widespread showers and storms Sunday through Sunday night and
    may persist through the day Monday. Severe weather potential
    remains. Flooding likely to be ongoing by Monday.

  - Widespread heavy rainfall footprint expected through Monday
    across portions of E OK and NW AR. The holiday weekend will
    have many outdoor activities and the prolonged heavy rainfall
    potential may expose many to increasing flood risk. Flood
    safety awareness will be a focus.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

The forecast remains complex over the weekend and timing/
location details are susceptible to change based on mesoscale
evolution. Thunderstorms have developed early this morning across
central and eastern Oklahoma in response to an intensifying LLJ.
These storms will continue to be capable of becoming strong to
severe over the next few hours with primarily a large hail
threat. Additional convection is noted in south-central Kansas,
moving south-southeast towards the FA along the instability
gradient. This activity has begun to mature into a bowing MCS and
is forecast to produce severe wind gusts as it moves into north-
central and northeast Oklahoma. Storms will move southeast through
the morning hours with the severe threat persisting into portions
of southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas. Morning
thunderstorm activity will produce an outflow boundary which could
be a focus for additional shower/ storm development late in the
day. With a strong, progressive MCS now appearing likely during
the morning hours, the NW-SE oriented outflow boundary may extend
well into southeast Oklahoma or northeast Texas. However, there is
a good deal of uncertainty regarding storm potential this
afternoon in the wake of this morning's complex... with latest
runs of most short term guidance being fairly pessimistic during
the afternoon/ early evening hours. A sfc low and associated
dryline in the Texas panhandle or western Oklahoma may also be a
focus for storm development later today, moving eastward tonight.
As a result, the severe risk this afternoon/ evening will be more
conditional in nature... but any storm that does develop may
produce large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a low tornado
potential.

Storm coverage is forecast to increase by tonight as isentropic
ascent intensifies again. This may tend to focus along an elevated
boundary near the OK-KS border. While severe threat will increase
again, the bigger story is likely the potential for repeated
rounds of heavy rainfall which will likely lead to areas of flash
flooding. A Flood Watch remains in effect for locations most at
risk. Precip continues into Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Additional rounds of storms are likely tomorrow into early Monday
as a synoptic front pushes into the area. Severe potential will
persist for much of the CWA, as well as a medium-high threat for
very heavy rainfall. There remains good agreement in the highest
rainfall totals occurring over northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas through the period. Instances of flash flooding and river
flooding become probable given a broad swath of 4-7" 3-day
totals, locally up to 8-10" in the hardest hit locations. Please
be particularly cautious in or near area lakes and rivers this
holiday weekend, and do not attempt to drive through flooded
roadways. Flood safety and awareness remains a top priority
through the weekend.

Shower and thunderstorm chances persist into Tuesday as an upper
trough ejects into the central/ northern plains. Will still need
to monitor for heavy rainfall, but the bulk of the heavy rain
threat should conclude by Monday. Periodic precip chances
continue through the extended period with a somewhat messy
synoptic pattern advertised by long range guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will affect all TAF sites early this
morning with gusty winds along with reduced ceilings and
visibilities. VFR conditions will then prevail from late morning
through this afternoon. MVFR ceilings may become more prevalent
this evening and overnight, and shower and thunderstorm chances
will once again increase as the night goes on, but the timing and
location of showers and storms remains uncertain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  66  80  64 /  70  70  70  90
FSM   79  68  84  66 /  80  50  50  80
MLC   84  70  86  67 /  50  40  40  80
BVO   76  62  75  59 /  80  80  70  90
FYV   75  63  78  61 /  90  70  80  80
BYV   73  62  73  59 /  90  80  90  90
MKO   79  66  81  64 /  80  60  70  90
MIO   75  63  73  61 /  90  90  90  90
F10   81  68  83  65 /  70  40  60  90
HHW   86  71  88  68 /  20  20  20  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Monday evening for OKZ054>072.

AR...Flood Watch through Monday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020.

&&

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
457 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
457 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

...ELEVATED SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Conditional Risk This Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across
portions of eastern Oklahoma. Storms are likely to impact the
remainder of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through the
morning hours with primarily large hail and damaging wind
threats. Storms will also produce heavy rainfall which may lead to
localized flash flooding.

A conditional severe risk may develop this afternoon and evening
if thunderstorms can develop in the wake of this morning's
convection. If this does occur, large hail and damaging winds are
likely to be the primary threats with a limited tornado potential.

More widespread thunderstorm development is likely tonight,
especially after midnight. Storms may become severe as well as
produce torrential rainfall. Flash flooding potential will be the
highest across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Please
keep flood safety in mind this weekend and do not attempt to drive
through flooded roadways.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Stormy weather persists Sunday into Monday with potential for
severe weather and heavy rainfall. Due to the repeated rounds of
heavy rainfall, flash and river flooding is likely. Flooding
concerns become significant by Sunday and Monday with at least
moderate level flooding possible on some rivers. More isolated
showers and storms continue into the middle of next week with
lingering flooding likely.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
627 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 WNW Hectorville       35.85N 95.94W
05/24/2025  M60 MPH          Okmulgee           OK   Trained Spotter

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
633 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 W Hectorville         35.84N 96.00W
05/24/2025  M65 MPH          Okmulgee           OK   Mesonet

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
639 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 AM     Hail             2 W Welch               36.87N 95.13W
05/24/2025  M2.75 Inch       Craig              OK   Public

            Social media picture of hailstones.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
702 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 E Summit              35.66N 95.36W
05/24/2025  M69 MPH          Muskogee           OK   ASOS

            KMKO measurement.

&&