Severe Thunderstorm Warning 273, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
315 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

  - Thunderstorms ongoing this morning with severe risk persisting
    across much of E OK and NW AR. Low potential for additional
    thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall
    accumulations steadily increase, especially across NE OK and
    NW AR.

  - Widespread showers and storms Sunday through Sunday night and
    may persist through the day Monday. Severe weather potential
    remains. Flooding likely to be ongoing by Monday.

  - Widespread heavy rainfall footprint expected through Monday
    across portions of E OK and NW AR. The holiday weekend will
    have many outdoor activities and the prolonged heavy rainfall
    potential may expose many to increasing flood risk. Flood
    safety awareness will be a focus.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

The forecast remains complex over the weekend and timing/
location details are susceptible to change based on mesoscale
evolution. Thunderstorms have developed early this morning across
central and eastern Oklahoma in response to an intensifying LLJ.
These storms will continue to be capable of becoming strong to
severe over the next few hours with primarily a large hail
threat. Additional convection is noted in south-central Kansas,
moving south-southeast towards the FA along the instability
gradient. This activity has begun to mature into a bowing MCS and
is forecast to produce severe wind gusts as it moves into north-
central and northeast Oklahoma. Storms will move southeast through
the morning hours with the severe threat persisting into portions
of southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas. Morning
thunderstorm activity will produce an outflow boundary which could
be a focus for additional shower/ storm development late in the
day. With a strong, progressive MCS now appearing likely during
the morning hours, the NW-SE oriented outflow boundary may extend
well into southeast Oklahoma or northeast Texas. However, there is
a good deal of uncertainty regarding storm potential this
afternoon in the wake of this morning's complex... with latest
runs of most short term guidance being fairly pessimistic during
the afternoon/ early evening hours. A sfc low and associated
dryline in the Texas panhandle or western Oklahoma may also be a
focus for storm development later today, moving eastward tonight.
As a result, the severe risk this afternoon/ evening will be more
conditional in nature... but any storm that does develop may
produce large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a low tornado
potential.

Storm coverage is forecast to increase by tonight as isentropic
ascent intensifies again. This may tend to focus along an elevated
boundary near the OK-KS border. While severe threat will increase
again, the bigger story is likely the potential for repeated
rounds of heavy rainfall which will likely lead to areas of flash
flooding. A Flood Watch remains in effect for locations most at
risk. Precip continues into Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Additional rounds of storms are likely tomorrow into early Monday
as a synoptic front pushes into the area. Severe potential will
persist for much of the CWA, as well as a medium-high threat for
very heavy rainfall. There remains good agreement in the highest
rainfall totals occurring over northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas through the period. Instances of flash flooding and river
flooding become probable given a broad swath of 4-7" 3-day
totals, locally up to 8-10" in the hardest hit locations. Please
be particularly cautious in or near area lakes and rivers this
holiday weekend, and do not attempt to drive through flooded
roadways. Flood safety and awareness remains a top priority
through the weekend.

Shower and thunderstorm chances persist into Tuesday as an upper
trough ejects into the central/ northern plains. Will still need
to monitor for heavy rainfall, but the bulk of the heavy rain
threat should conclude by Monday. Periodic precip chances
continue through the extended period with a somewhat messy
synoptic pattern advertised by long range guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the
first few hours of the forecast period. More widespread showers
and storms will arrive late tonight into early Saturday morning,
with reductions in ceilings and visibilities likely. Mainly VFR
conditions will prevail outside of thunderstorms until Saturday
evening when MVFR ceilings may become more prevalent. Any showers
and storms Saturday afternoon and evening will likely remain
rather isolated in nature.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  66  80  64 /  70  70  70  90
FSM   79  68  84  66 /  80  50  50  80
MLC   84  70  86  67 /  50  40  40  80
BVO   76  62  75  59 /  80  80  70  90
FYV   75  63  78  61 /  90  70  80  80
BYV   73  62  73  59 /  90  80  90  90
MKO   79  66  81  64 /  80  60  70  90
MIO   75  63  73  61 /  90  90  90  90
F10   81  68  83  65 /  70  40  60  90
HHW   86  71  88  68 /  20  20  20  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Monday evening for OKZ054>072.

AR...Flood Watch through Monday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020.

&&

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
Issued by National Weather Service Norman OK
525 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
525 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast OK.
	ONSET...Late Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast OK/Northwest AR.
    ONSET...Late Evening.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast OK/Northwest AR.
	ONSET...Late Tonight.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast OK/Northwest AR.
	ONSET...Late Evening.

DISCUSSION...
A few showers and thunderstorms will continue into the afternoon
and evening. An isolated severe storm is possible but not
expected. A better chance for severe weather will ramp up
overnight, especially towards dawn. Within these storms large
hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes may occur. Severe
weather is possible anywhere, but will focus north of I-40. Areas
of heavy rain may result in localized flash flooding as well. A
Flood Watch is in effect.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Stormy weather persists through the weekend with thunderstorms,
some of which may be severe, continuing daily through at least
Monday. Presumably the risk of severe weather will start to
diminish with time as instability is used up, but it will not
completely subside at any point in the forecast. Due to the
repeated rounds of heavy rainfall, flash and river flooding is
likely. Flooding concerns become significant by Sunday and Monday
with at least moderate level flooding possible on some rivers.
More isolated showers and storms continue into the middle of next
week with lingering flooding likely.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
137 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

OKZ054-060-061-064-067-240715-
Tulsa OK-Osage OK-Rogers OK-Creek OK-Wagoner OK-
137 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN ROGERS...SOUTHEASTERN
OSAGE...NORTHEASTERN CREEK...NORTHWESTERN WAGONER AND TULSA COUNTIES
THROUGH 215 AM CDT...

At 137 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 3 miles northeast of Turley to 4 miles northeast
of Keystone State Park. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Sand Springs...                   Keystone State Park...
Collinsville...                   Verdigris...
Jenks Riverside Airport...        Sperry...
Tulsa...                          Claremore...
Skiatook...                       Turley...
Tulsa International Airport...    Catoosa...
Tiawah...                         Owasso...
Mannford...                       Broken Arrow...
Jenks...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 214 and 260.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3642 9543 3638 9543 3604 9574 3603 9633
      3616 9630 3616 9627 3620 9624 3622 9625
      3623 9628 3643 9623
TIME...MOT...LOC 0637Z 262DEG 35KT 3627 9590 3617 9619

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
337 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

OKZ073-074-240915-
Haskell OK-Pittsburg OK-
337 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN HASKELL AND
NORTHEASTERN PITTSBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 415 AM CDT...

At 337 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Arrowhead State Park, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Arrowhead State Park...           Quinton...
Canadian...                       Featherston...
Enterprise...                     Whitefield...
Blocker...                        Kinta...
Lewisville...                     Stigler...
Crowder...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
southeastern and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3522 9566 3522 9561 3523 9559 3527 9526
      3526 9524 3527 9522 3528 9513 3506 9512
      3506 9534 3505 9535 3504 9566
TIME...MOT...LOC 0837Z 267DEG 33KT 3514 9557

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH