River Flood Warning 28, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1219 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

  - Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will impact the
    entire area today through Thursday morning, bringing severe
    weather and heavy rainfall. Flash flooding and main-stem river
    flooding are likely.

  - Additional storm chances return toward the end of the week
    before the weather quiets down.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 909 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Well organized MCS is ongoing across south central OK with the
elevated frontal zone lifting northward across NE OK as low level
jet intensifies ahead of the MCS. The ongoing corridor of strong
storms through NE OK will slowly lift northward while the MCS
tracks ENE through SE OK into far E OK / NW AR through the late
night / early morning hours. WoFS guidance has been consistent in
maintaining a corridor of strong winds into SE OK with a slow
weakening trend with eastward progress. This seems a likely
scenario, however a more eastward extent of the severe threat may
materialize given the well organized system interacting with
plentiful instability and effective shear. Additional storms are
expected to develop across west TX late tonight and eventually
spread back into portions of E OK during the day Wednesday.
Updated forecast will adjust for precip timing and coverage.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Another round of convection is likely to move into eastern Oklahoma
tomorrow morning, with additional strong to severe weather potential
expanding across much of southeast Oklahoma and west-central
Arkansas. By the afternoon, an upper level trough will be moving
into the region, supplying additional showers and storms to the
region through tomorrow evening. Flash flooding will continue to be
a serious concern through the period with several rounds of heavy
rainfall likely across southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas
Wednesday. Between 2 to 5" (locally up to 7") is expected across
much of the region, with highest totals across east-Central and
southeast Oklahoma by the time heavy rainfall concludes Wednesday
night. This will result in dramatic rises on area streams and
rivers, with potential for flooding in nearly all basins this
week, including a low potential for significant flooding.

Scattered showers or thunderstorms may tend to linger into
Thursday afternoon across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas as the upper low departs. Height rises occur Thursday
evening which should allow for a break in the precip. However,
another upper trough tracking through the midwest will send a
frontal boundary and additional rain and storm chances back into
the FA Thursday night into Friday. High pressure follows the front
late week, finally delivering a longer period of drier weather
this weekend. Going into next week, guidance varies regarding
synoptic evolution... with some solutions suggesting continued dry
conditions while others bring additional rain chances back to the
forecast. For now, NBM guidance will suffice, with gradually
increasing PoPs going into midweek. High temperatures remain in
the 70s through the extended period, though this is subject to
change depending on which pattern verifies next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

A broad area of moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded
thunderstorms is currently moving into eastern Oklahoma, and will
move east into northwest Arkansas the next 2 hours. Within the
heavier rainfall, visibility may drop as low as 1-2 SM with
ceilings of 1.5-3 kft. Gusty erratic winds will accompany any
storms. A brief break is expected after 9Z tonight for a few hours
before we repeat, with another large storm complex moving from
west to east through the area during the morning to early
afternoon hours. However, during the day Wednesday ceilings may
not come up as much even between storm episodes, so MVFR ceilings
or lower are expected. Thunderstorm activity can't totally be
ruled out late afternoon into the evening but the probability is
too low to include in the TAF at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  58  77  57 /  90  80  30  40
FSM   80  63  82  61 /  80  90  30  20
MLC   74  60  81  59 /  90  80  20  30
BVO   71  55  76  53 /  90  90  40  40
FYV   77  58  77  56 /  80  90  50  20
BYV   76  60  74  56 /  70  90  60  20
MKO   73  59  77  57 /  90  90  30  30
MIO   71  58  74  54 /  90  90  60  40
F10   71  58  77  57 /  90  90  20  40
HHW   75  62  81  61 /  90  80  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...06

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
450 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
450 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Along and south of Interstate 40.
	ONSET...Primarily after 6 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Along and southeast of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Southeast Oklahoma.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...All eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Conditions continue to become more supportive of severe weather primarily
along and south of Interstate 40. The combination of instability and favorable
shear along a weak boundary which extends across southeast Oklahoma has
created a corridor where storms will track this evening into the overnight
hours and pose a risk of severe weather. Large hail and locally damaging
winds will be primary hazard especially as an organized line of storms
moves across the region later this evening. Scattered supercells are likely
this afternoon through late evening and these storms will pose a risk of
tornadoes especially in vicinity of the boundary across southeast Oklahoma.
The severe weather risk is expected to diminish late tonight.

Widespread and locally heavy rains will develop again overnight and flooding
concerns will increase area wide. Avoid flooded roadways.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential and Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY and MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances remain high Wednesday into Wednesday night night
continued risks of severe weather and flooding. The weather pattern
will trend toward less active by late week with decreasing thunderstorm
chances and potentially a dry period over the weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1225 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

OKZ049-300600-
Pushmataha OK-
1225 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN PUSHMATAHA COUNTY THROUGH
100 AM CDT...

At 1224 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 3 miles northwest of Cloudy to 13 miles east of
Oleta. Movement was north at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Clayton Lake State Park...        Tuskahoma...
Snow...                           Clayton...
Cloudy...                         Nashoba...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 9542 3466 9540 3453 9494 3451 9494
      3450 9505 3425 9505 3424 9515 3416 9515
      3416 9518
TIME...MOT...LOC 0524Z 197DEG 28KT 3434 9533 3419 9512

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1231 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

OKZ061-062-067-068-070-300615-
Muskogee OK-Cherokee OK-Rogers OK-Mayes OK-Wagoner OK-
1231 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ROGERS...WESTERN
MAYES...EASTERN WAGONER...NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE AND NORTHEASTERN
MUSKOGEE COUNTIES THROUGH 115 AM CDT...

At 1231 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles northwest of Inola to 5 miles northwest
of Keefeton. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tullahassee...                    Hulbert...
Adair...                          Pryor...
Inola...                          Mazie...
Wagoner...                        Summit...
Locust Grove...                   Fort Gibson...
Muskogee...                       Okay...
Lost City...                      Chouteau...
Pryor Creek...                    Sportsmen Acres Community...
Sequoyah State Park...            Porter...
Murphy...                         Tiawah...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 256 and 272.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3651 9533 3651 9527 3586 9502 3559 9543
      3618 9563 3653 9533
TIME...MOT...LOC 0531Z 213DEG 37KT 3618 9560 3564 9540

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

OKZ057-058-062-063-068-069-300645-
Adair OK-Craig OK-Cherokee OK-Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-Mayes OK-
1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG...DELAWARE...
SOUTHWESTERN OTTAWA...MAYES...NORTHERN ADAIR AND EASTERN CHEROKEE
COUNTIES THROUGH 145 AM CDT...

At 1259 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 6 miles west of Pryor to 2 miles northwest of
Peggs to 5 miles northeast of Pumpkin Center. Movement was northeast
at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pensacola...                      Jay...
Vinita...                         Honey Creek State Park...
Cherokee State Park...            Lake Eucha State Park...
Locust Grove...                   Disney Little Blue State Park...
Big Cabin...                      Strang...
Leach...                          Zena...
Hoot Owl...                       Cleora...
Chloeta...                        Scraper...
Murphy...                         Tahlequah...
Pryor...                          Ketchum...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 272 and 296.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 9461 3600 9453 3575 9507 3607 9515
      3630 9544 3633 9543 3679 9504
TIME...MOT...LOC 0559Z 227DEG 49KT 3632 9543 3610 9513 3576 9506

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
137 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

ARZ010-019-OKZ069-072-300715-
Washington AR-Crawford AR-Adair OK-Sequoyah OK-
137 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CRAWFORD...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...
NORTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH AND SOUTHEASTERN ADAIR COUNTIES THROUGH 215 AM
CDT...

At 136 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 6 miles southeast of Baron to 3 miles southeast
of Brushy Lake State Park. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Alma...                           Brushy...
Woolsey...                        West Fork...
Elkins...                         Mountainburg...
Blackburn...                      Winslow...
Lee Creek...                      Canehill...
Uniontown...                      Odell...
Mount Gayler...                   Morrow...
Short...                          Rudy...
Wyola...                          Tuttle...
Sulphur City...                   Natural Dam...

This includes the following highways,
 Interstate 40 in Arkansas between mile markers 2 and 4, and between
mile markers 9 and 14.
 Interstate 49 between mile markers 22 and 56.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3546 9420 3547 9482 3589 9458 3605 9394
      3602 9394
TIME...MOT...LOC 0636Z 262DEG 46KT 3588 9452 3552 9477

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
149 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

OKZ076-300715-
Le Flore OK-
149 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LE FLORE COUNTY
THROUGH 215 AM CDT...

At 149 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
northeast of Octavia, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny to nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Big Cedar...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3454 9474 3479 9460 3478 9445 3455 9446
      3451 9450 3451 9453
TIME...MOT...LOC 0649Z 212DEG 31KT 3457 9463

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH