Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Tulsa, OK

459 
WGUS74 KTSA 300850
FFSTSA

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
350 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

OKC037-113-117-131-143-145-147-300900-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-250430T0915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Creek OK-Osage OK-Pawnee OK-Rogers OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-
350 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CREEK, SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE, SOUTHEASTERN 
PAWNEE, ROGERS, TULSA, NORTHWESTERN WAGONER AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON 
OK COUNTIES HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLOOD WARNING...

&&

LAT...LON 3660 9540 3586 9564 3586 9618 3570 9662
      3605 9662 3657 9601

$$

Lacy

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
916 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

  - Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will impact the
    entire area today through Thursday morning, bringing severe
    weather and heavy rainfall. Flash flooding and main-stem river
    flooding are likely.

  - Additional storm chances return toward the end of the week
    before the weather quiets down.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 909 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Well organized MCS is ongoing across south central OK with the
elevated frontal zone lifting northward across NE OK as low level
jet intensifies ahead of the MCS. The ongoing corridor of strong
storms through NE OK will slowly lift northward while the MCS
tracks ENE through SE OK into far E OK / NW AR through the late
night / early morning hours. WoFS guidance has been consistent in
maintaining a corridor of strong winds into SE OK with a slow
weakening trend with eastward progress. This seems a likely
scenario, however a more eastward extent of the severe threat may
materialize given the well organized system interacting with
plentiful instability and effective shear. Additional storms are
expected to develop across west TX late tonight and eventually
spread back into portions of E OK during the day Wednesday.
Updated forecast will adjust for precip timing and coverage.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Another round of convection is likely to move into eastern Oklahoma
tomorrow morning, with additional strong to severe weather potential
expanding across much of southeast Oklahoma and west-central
Arkansas. By the afternoon, an upper level trough will be moving
into the region, supplying additional showers and storms to the
region through tomorrow evening. Flash flooding will continue to be
a serious concern through the period with several rounds of heavy
rainfall likely across southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas
Wednesday. Between 2 to 5" (locally up to 7") is expected across
much of the region, with highest totals across east-Central and
southeast Oklahoma by the time heavy rainfall concludes Wednesday
night. This will result in dramatic rises on area streams and
rivers, with potential for flooding in nearly all basins this
week, including a low potential for significant flooding.

Scattered showers or thunderstorms may tend to linger into
Thursday afternoon across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas as the upper low departs. Height rises occur Thursday
evening which should allow for a break in the precip. However,
another upper trough tracking through the midwest will send a
frontal boundary and additional rain and storm chances back into
the FA Thursday night into Friday. High pressure follows the front
late week, finally delivering a longer period of drier weather
this weekend. Going into next week, guidance varies regarding
synoptic evolution... with some solutions suggesting continued dry
conditions while others bring additional rain chances back to the
forecast. For now, NBM guidance will suffice, with gradually
increasing PoPs going into midweek. High temperatures remain in
the 70s through the extended period, though this is subject to
change depending on which pattern verifies next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Rain showers along with multiple waves of thunderstorms are
expected through the TAF period while a frontal boundary holds
over the region and a low pressure system approaches from the
west. Within each wave of convection IFR/MVFR conditions, gusty
winds and heavy rainfall are forecast. Outside of the stronger
convection, varying conditions between IFR and VFR are forecast
for the TAF period. Will continue with Tempo groups for timing of
greater storm potential. Winds through the period look to be
variable for much of the period with the front and outflow
boundaries across the CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  72  58  77 /  90  90  80  30
FSM   65  80  63  82 /  90  80  90  30
MLC   63  74  60  81 /  90  90  80  20
BVO   56  71  55  76 /  90  90  90  40
FYV   61  77  58  77 / 100  80  90  50
BYV   61  76  60  74 /  90  70  90  60
MKO   61  73  59  77 /  90  90  90  30
MIO   59  71  58  74 / 100  90  90  60
F10   61  71  58  77 /  90  90  90  20
HHW   64  75  62  81 /  80  90  80  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
450 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
450 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Along and south of Interstate 40.
	ONSET...Primarily after 6 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Along and southeast of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Southeast Oklahoma.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...All eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Conditions continue to become more supportive of severe weather primarily
along and south of Interstate 40. The combination of instability and favorable
shear along a weak boundary which extends across southeast Oklahoma has
created a corridor where storms will track this evening into the overnight
hours and pose a risk of severe weather. Large hail and locally damaging
winds will be primary hazard especially as an organized line of storms
moves across the region later this evening. Scattered supercells are likely
this afternoon through late evening and these storms will pose a risk of
tornadoes especially in vicinity of the boundary across southeast Oklahoma.
The severe weather risk is expected to diminish late tonight.

Widespread and locally heavy rains will develop again overnight and flooding
concerns will increase area wide. Avoid flooded roadways.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential and Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY and MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances remain high Wednesday into Wednesday night night
continued risks of severe weather and flooding. The weather pattern
will trend toward less active by late week with decreasing thunderstorm
chances and potentially a dry period over the weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
511 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

OKZ065-066-071-292245-
Okmulgee OK-Okfuskee OK-McIntosh OK-
511 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN MCINTOSH...SOUTH CENTRAL
OKMULGEE AND SOUTHEASTERN OKFUSKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM CDT...

At 511 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Dustin, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pierce...                         Stidham...
Raiford...                        Vivian...
Hanna...                          Vernon...
Eufaula...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 244 and
256.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3531 9617 3551 9569 3525 9556 3523 9558
      3523 9562 3524 9560 3525 9562 3522 9568
      3516 9598 3529 9598 3529 9615
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 247DEG 31KT 3523 9602

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
515 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 AM     Tornado          3 SW Collinsville       36.33N 95.87W
04/29/2025                   Tulsa              OK   NWS Storm Survey

            A tornado uprooted several trees, destroyed
            a couple outbuildings, damaged the roofs of
            homes, and snapped numerous large tree
            limbs. The damage supported a low-end EF-1
            rating.

&&

EJC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
714 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

OKZ073-075-300100-
Pittsburg OK-Latimer OK-
714 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LATIMER AND
SOUTHEASTERN PITTSBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM CDT...

At 714 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Hartshorne, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Wilburton...                      Hartshorne...
Gowen...                          Haileyville...
Alderson...                       Blocker...
Dow...                            Bache...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 9556 3483 9574 3511 9560 3494 9526
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 213DEG 16KT 3485 9560

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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