River Flood Warning 19, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
652 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 340 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

  - Showers and thunderstorms continue this morning into mid
    afternoon, with an increasing severe threat again including
    tornado potential by early afternoon. Localized heavy rains
    will worsen any ongoing flooding.

  - Drier weather returns Monday and Tuesday, but unsettled
    weather resumes by midweek and continues into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

A large MCS is slowly winding down over the forecast area early
this morning, with only an isolated severe weather threat
remaining, especially in far northwest Arkansas.

Renewed convective development is expected later this morning as
the main upper low moves into Oklahoma and a surface low lifts
northeast across the state. This activity will strengthen by
midday into early afternoon, with some storms becoming severe,
especially from far eastern Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. All
severe weather hazards including tornadoes will be possible. The
severe weather threat should then exit northwest Arkansas by mid
to late afternoon. Additional rainfall amounts of up to 1-2 inches
will be possible, which will aggravate any ongoing flooding
conditions. High temperatures today will range from the upper 60s
to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Dry weather will finally return Monday and Tuesday, with daytime
temperatures warming above the seasonal averages. Unsettled
weather returns by late Tuesday night through next weekend, with
daily thunderstorm chances as weak shortwaves move across the
southern plains in a west southwest flow aloft pattern. The NBM
pops remain too aggressive for each specific time period given the
overall nebulous pattern and thus have lowered them once again. A
weak cold front looks to move through around Friday, so storm
chances may drop slightly by Saturday, but will remain non zero.
Temperatures will likely remain near or slightly above the
seasonal averages through the entire forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Ceilings varying from IFR to VFR along with rain showers and a few
thunderstorms will continue into mid morning across the CWA. By
mid morning MVFR to VFR conditions and scattered showers are
expected ahead of a more defined line of convection forecast to
develop/move into the CWA. This line of strong to severe
convection is forecast to quickly move from west to east through
the region ahead of the cold front finally moving through the
region. Within the convection, IFR/MVFR conditions, gusty to
strong winds and heavy rainfall are all possible. Precipitation
should taper off and exit northwest Arkansas TAF sites by late
afternoon. Behind the precip, scattered to broken VFR ceilings
should become common through late afternoon. Cloud cover on the
backside of a low pressure system moving through the region looks
to spread MVFR ceilings back into northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas this evening into the overnight hours. These return
clouds look to hold in far northwest Arkansas through the end of
the TAF period. Also behind the precip will be gusty west to
southwesterly winds which should weaken Sunday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  46  76  54 / 100   0   0   0
FSM   74  49  79  53 /  90  10   0   0
MLC   72  47  78  53 /  80   0   0   0
BVO   68  41  76  50 / 100   0   0   0
FYV   72  45  74  48 / 100  10   0   0
BYV   72  47  74  51 / 100  10   0   0
MKO   72  46  77  52 /  90   0   0   0
MIO   70  43  73  52 /  90  10   0   0
F10   70  45  77  53 /  90   0   0   0
HHW   72  48  78  53 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-
     029.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
528 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
528 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL CONTINUES
THROUGH TODAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Early Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Mainly Far Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Around Noon.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
    RISK...Limited.
    AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
    ONSET...Mid Morning.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue this
morning as an upper level storm system moves into Oklahoma from
the southwest. By late morning, a line of storms is expected to
develop along a cold front that will sweep east across the area
late this morning and this afternoon. This line of storms will
intensify as it moves rapidly east into northwest Arkanss early
this afternoon, with all severe weather hazards including
tornadoes possible. Locally heavy rainfall of 1-2 inches will also
be possible in some places, which will aggravate the flooding that
occurred overnight. The showers and storms will move east out of
the area by late this afternoon.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
After a couple dry days Monday and Tuesday, unsettled weather will
return late Tuesday night through the rest of the week, with
scattered thunderstorms expected each day. Some severe weather and
heavy rain potential will exist during this time period, but
details remain unclear at this time.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>